Southern California Energy Summit JB Straubel
CTO, co-founder Oct 10th, 2014
• Lead-‐acid technology was status quo in 1995 • Performance had stagnated
§ Short lifespan § Very heavy § Short range
Lithium ion Made Possible: § 4 X gravimetric energy density § 6 X volumetric energy density § 3 X cycle life
EV Battery History!
Industry first Lithium Ion EV Powertrain!
3 -‐
Controls and Software
Power Electronics Module
(DC-AC Inverter, Charger)
Proprietary 53 kWh Lithium ion
battery pack
Proprietary 250hp AC Induction Motor and
Gearbox
A New Idea at the Time (2004): Performance Electric Cars
Focus on Energy Storage Packaging and Cost!
Ø Ground-up design as EV-only (Model S)"Ø Optimal packaging, safety and performance"Ø High energy density leads to lower cost" 85 kWh Battery
Pack
Glass Cockpit – Comfort with Software!
An Electronics and Software Culture!
• Core focus and Tesla DNA • Battery voltage management • Motor Control • Diagnostics • Touchscreen • Mobile App • Traction and Stability Control
• Complete Over the Air Updates
Model S!
Starting at $62,400 Starting at $62,400 Starting at $70,000
Performance
§ 0-‐60 mph : 4.2s (sport), 3.2s (dual motor sport) Driving range
§ 265 miles (US EPA raCng) Advanced range capabiliQes
§ 20 minute DC fast charge capability (10-‐60%)
Model S – Most Awarded car of 2013!
Dual Motor Platform – Unveiled Oct 9th !
Ø 3.2 second 0-60mph in Model S “P85D” (really fast!)"Ø Improved efficiency and torque distribution"
Model X – Launch in 2015!
Vehicle Aff
orda
bility
Market Size / Timing
Tesla Model S Tesla Model X
Second GeneraCon PlaTorm
Tesla Roadster
First GeneraCon
Model 3 PlaTorm
Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!
Tesla Roadster
GM EV1
Volu
met
ric E
nerg
y D
ensi
ty [W
h/l]
600
500
400
300
200
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
2010 2015 2020
Model S
700
Model 3
Battery Energy Density Trend!
800
Vehicle Aff
orda
bility
Market Size / Timing
Tesla Model S Tesla Model X
Second GeneraCon PlaTorm
Tesla Roadster
First GeneraCon
Model 3 PlaTorm
Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!
0!
5!
10!
15!
20!
25!
30!
35!
40!
2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020!
Gigafactory!
Others!
Lishen!
BYD!
BAK!
ATL!
Maxell!
Sony!
Panasonic!
LGC!
SDI!
500,000 Vehicles
Global cell supply growing, but
almost entirely in Asia
Planned 2020 Gigafactory Production Exceeds 2013 Global Production
Battery pack cost/kWh reduced >30% for Model 3
35,000
Vehicles
G
Wh/
Year
Pro
duct
ion
Tesla Battery Gigafactory!
Module
Cathode Manufacturing
Aluminum Foil
Cathode Electrode
Anode Electrode
Separator Manufacturing Separator Winding
Cell
Assembly
Anode Manufacturing
Copper Foil
Raw
Mat
eria
ls
Cell
Cell
Cell
…
Pack
Module
Module
Module
…
Pack Enclosure
Vehicle Assembly (Fremont, CA)
Can & Cap
Ba=ery Pack Life@me Usage
Ba=ery Pack Recycling
Raw Steel/Aluminum
Electrolyte Manufacturing
Gigafactory Process Flow!
CoCO3
Ni metal NiCoAlOH (precursor) NiSO4
H2SO4 NaAlO2
NaOH
NiCoAlO
Calcining
Li2CO3 LiOH
Chemical conversion
LiNiCoAlO2
Pulverizing Classifying
O2
Calcining
CoSO4
smelter
Start with Raw Materials Cost!
• Tesla Supercharger Network DC connection to vehicle 135 kW power (300-415VDC) 0-50% SOC in 20 minutes
• Free unlimited usage by Model S customers
EV Infrastructure – Tesla Supercharger!
Energy cost disparity growing (between electricity and petroleum) Electric shaS power is roughly 4x as efficient as petroleum Electric shaS power is ~$1.00/gallon equivalent (vs. $4.00/gallon)
EV Operating Cost!
2014 Year-End Plan – US & Canada!
• 115 active sites in US • > 200 sites worldwide • Adding a new location every ~18 hours
Superchargers Today (Tesla web Site “find us”)!
Superchargers around the world!
2014 Plan - Europe!
Shanghai Supercharger!
Tesla Supercharger Usage Metrics!
Total Energy Output (MWh) 10,897
Total Capacity (kW) 65,730 Total # of SC locaQons / stalls 189/1041
(+11 new sites in June)
Total # of Supercharge Sessions ~300,000
Wee
kly
Ener
gy O
utpu
t (M
Wh)
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (k
W)
1. Badery Cell and Cell Materials Suppliers – huge growth opportunity • Raw materials (Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium Hydroxide, Graphite, Separator, Electrolyte) • Cell Assembly equipment (coaQng, pressing, winding, assembly)
2. Electric UQliQes • Revenue growth and Load Management opportunity • Public charging growth opportunity (fast DC and slower AC) • Growth in renewable energy generaQon with charging storage buffer
3. Power Electronics Suppliers – growth opportunity • IGBT’s, charging, magneQcs, DC-‐DC conversion, thermal interface materials
4. AutomoQve and Equipment OEM’s – significant change, opportunity and risk • New EV product adributes can accelerate sales, delight customers • Lack of innovaQon or bemng on the wrong technology can cause market loss • Poorly implemented EV technology can waste resources and lose customers
5. Oil and Gas Majors – eventual reducQon in revenue but installed base is huge and broad • 1 billion cars on the road, 100M new per year, 0.2% EV (~200,000/yr)
Industries Affected by Transport Electrification!
Product Line Automotive Residential Commercial
Power/Energy 310 kW / 85 kWh 5 kW / 10 kWh 200 kW / 400 kWh+
Listed Outdoor Rated
Stationary Energy Storage Product Derivatives!
29
Behind the Meter Concept w/ Solar Net Metering
Electric Utility Ownership
Loads (consumption)
Distributed Generation
Distributed Storage
Bidirectional Energy Flow
30
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
10 x 100kWh = 1MWh
Electric Utility Ownership
Customer Ownership
31
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
Electric Utility Ownership
Customer Ownership
10 x 100kWh = 1MWh
AggregaCon Company
Utility or ISO
32
Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation
Electric Utility Ownership
Customer Ownership
60 x 100kWh = 6MWh
10,000 homes x 100kWh = 1,000MWh = 1GWh
AggregaCon Company
Utility or ISO
Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!
33
400 kWh ba[ery pack
Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!
Peak Demand Reduction at Supercharger Site
MW Scale Stationary Storage!
200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh
1MW / 2 MWh
Tesla Factory Fremont, CA
Scalable Building Blocks
400 kWh Scalable System!
Utility Scale Storage!
• Modular • Scalable (10s of MW+) • AC Parallel Connections
– High Reliability – Simplified Construction
20MW / 40 MWh!
California ISO load curve evolution!
2020 California Load and Generation Curves!
2020 California Load and Generation Curves!
The Ideal Solution?
Q: What area is required to offset 100% of Passenger car miles driven in the USA?1
Photovoltaic
1. 1.658 x 1012 miles in 2002 (DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics) 2. cia.gov
“The stone age came to an end not for lack of stones And the oil age will come to an end not for lack of oil”
— Sheikh Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister