The Changing Face of Forestry:
The U.S. Forest Service Perspective
Ken ArneyU.S. Forest Service
Table of Contents
• National Forest News
• Emerging Forest Issues in the South
• Challenges for Forestry
National Forest NewsSecure Rural Schools Proposal
• President’s 2007 budget includes proposal to reauthorize Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act for 5 years
• Funding would be from sale of certain NF lands• Currently in Congress – Considerable opposition
from both parties
National Forest NewsRoadless Rule Petitions
• USDA Sec. Approved petitions from VA, NC and SC on June 21 to develop state-specific roadless area rules (first in nation)
• FS will work with states to develop rules – public input will be solicited
• States have until Nov. 13, 2006 to file petitions, or forest plans prevail
• Georgia not expected to file petition.• About 12 expected nationwide
Emerging Forestry Issues
• Ownership Change
• Land Use Change
• Changing Markets – Timber and Other
• Forest Health Concerns
Ownership Change
David N. Wear
And
John G. Greis
Forest area and Forest area and ownershipownership
Forest Area by Ownership Group - South
0
60
120
180
National forest Other public Forestindustry
Nonindustrialprivate
Ownership class
Mill
ion
acr
es
1953 1963 1982 1989 1999
Source: SFRA
The Changing Landscape ofPrivate Timberland Ownership
Mike Clutter
Brooks Mendell
David Newman
June 13, 2005
Industry Ownership Changes By FIA Units
Industry Land Divestiture Summarized
• More than 20 million acres in South since 1996
• Driven by several forces
• Widespread but focused in parts of the South
• Raises several questions and concerns
Questions Include:
– Will this trend increase / accelerate fragmentation across forested landscapes?
– Will management objectives and silvicultural practices change dramatically?
– How will the changes impact fire suppression capabilities?
– Will new owners practice good forest stewardship?
Other Private Forest Land Ownership National Statistics
1953 - 2003
0
100
200
300
400
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Are
a (M
M a
cres
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ow
ner
s (M
M)
Southern Forest Owners:
• 5 million
• Increasingly absentee
• 29% white collar; 20% retirees
• 6% farmers (down from 67% 50 yrs ago)
• Diverse management objectives
• Mostly do not seek management advice
• Small % control more than 1/3 of all timberlandSource: SFRA
Why do they own forestland?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Firewood
Timber
Land investment
Recreation
Family legacy
Aesthetics
Home/farm
Percent of Family Forestland
Source: N.W.O. Survey
Land Use Change
Percent-20.1 - 00 - 12.712.7 - 27.327.3 - 49.749.7 - 114.9
Population change (2000-2020)
2020 Forecast ….Southern Residents Will Be:
• Increased by 24 million
• More urban
• Older
• More Hispanic and African-American
• Just more than 50% White
Source: So. WUI Assessment
Urbanization – Why Care?
“Among the forces of change, urbanization will have the most
direct, immediate and permanent effects on the extent, condition and
health of forests” SFRA, 2002
Urbanization Outcomes
• Smaller parcel sizes• More difficult management (e.g. smoke)• More recreational pressure• Conversion to non-forest• Economic disincentives to own and manage• More biocentric ownerships and citizenry• More public resistance to harvests • More local regulations and ordinances (346 in
2000 vs. 141 in 1992 in South)
Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment
Potential forest loss
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Alabam
a
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North
Carolina
Oklahoma
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
1000 a
cre
sRange of Forecast Changes by
StateWear, 2006 (in Draft)
Forecast Total Regional Forest Change (Wear, 2006 in Draft)
• No net loss if:– High timber prices– Lowered population growth– Low ag prices
• Maximum loss of 27 million acres if:– Low timber prices– High Population growth– High ag prices
Changing Markets
Rapid Assessment of Market Change in the South
Douglas Carter and Dave Wear
Assoc. Prof., SFRC, Univ of FL
and
Project Leader, Economics Work Unit,
USFS SRS
What Has Happened?--Harvests--
• Steady growth ’62-’98• Declining harvests
’98-’01• Softwood and
hardwood pulpwood harvests declined 11% and 21% from ’98-’01
• Softwood sawtimber harvests were more stable
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
mm
cf
S. Sawtimber S. pulpwood H. pulpwood
Southern US Timber Harvests
What Has Happened?--Prices--
• Biggest declines were in softwood pulpwood since ‘98.
• Softwood sawtimber not impacted as severely.
• Hardwood pulpwood more volatile but regained strength since 2000.
• Hardwood sawtimber stable or increasing.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
ind
ex
(19
77
=1
)
H Saw H Pulp S Saw S Pulp
Southern US Stumpage Prices
Pulpmills and Chipmills in the South
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pulp & chip distance1 - 50 51 - 100101 - 250251 - 500501 +
# Pulpmills_chipmills_south.shp
500 0 500 1000 Miles
N
EW
S
Number of Southern Pulp Mills
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
US Forest Service and Forest Resources Assn.
Sawmills in the South
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sawmill distance1 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 150
# Sawmills_south.shp
500 0 500 1000 Miles
N
EW
S
Emerging Markets???
• Carbon
• Water
• Biomass
• Viewscapes
• Wildlife Viewing/Habitat
• Other Ecosystem Services
Conclusions: Markets
• Markets are NOT going away, but adjusting after rapid growth in the 1990’s
• Domestic demand has declined for pulpwood– 16% reduction in southern pulping capacity since
1997 (indicates a sustained decline in demand)
• Some expanding demand for pulpwood per OSB expansion
• Solidwood demand appears stable• Ecosystem services may offer promise
Significant Forest Health Management Program Activities in Georgia
• SPB prevention program
• Hemlock Woolly Adelgid control
• Cogongrass eradication along FL border
• Redbay mortality in coastal areas
• Sudden oak death surveys
In Conclusion………
• The South’s population is growing rapidly• Southern forests are changing ownership, being
urbanized, and facing numerous health issues• National Forests will play a key but changing
role in southern forestry• USFS State and Private Forestry will continue to
lead on issues relevant to non-federal forest lands.
• Cooperation among all owners and managers will be necessary if southern forests are to remain viable and healthy
For More Information…..
• Email: [email protected]
• SFRA: www.srs.fs.fed.us/sustain
• Changing Industry Ownership: www.southernforests.org
• Market Change: www.southernforests.org