The Implications of a Pandemic Flu
Outbreak On Businesses
in the Global Economy
Gayle JacobsGlobal PRC Associates, LLC
Overview
• A Flu Pandemic as a Political Risk
• Effects of a Pandemic on the Global
Economy
• Impacts on Companies in West Michigan
• What Are Other Businesses Doing?
– Case Study: The Intel Corporation
• Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
A Flu Pandemic and Political Risk
• Background on Political Risk
• Businesses face risk on political, economic and sociological levels • Present clashes in Lebanon disrupting UPS shipments• Terrorism and kidnapping on BP-Shell oil pipelines in
Nigeria• SARS outbreak in 2003
A transnational health pandemic would have far greater
reach and impact on the global economy than anyone war, embargo or natural disaster.
Effects on the Global Economy
The flow of goods and services thrives with fluid
borders. It is greatly impacted by variables such
as market demand, logistics networks, the international banking system, technology and
atthe root of it all, people.
What does this mean for your business?
Critical Factors
Workforce Shortages of 30-40%
(Precautionary)Border Restrictions
Affecting Critical ImportsOr Sales/Exports Overseas
Major Swings in Demand(Ex: Medical EquipmentSales, Consumer Goods)
Dramatic Changes to Your Business Operations
Logistics: Trucking,
UPS, FedEx
Mfg PlantsFactories
Call CentersRetail
Operations,Stores
The Domino Effect
A supply shortagecauses a disruption
to production
Related goods
cannot be produced
Families lose abilityto earn income when
wage earners stayhome due to child
care, fear or illness
Schools close and parents can no
longer go to work(at electric company,
factory, etc.)
Ripple effectis felt in otherindustries, andit compounds
Consumers cannot pay
bills for utilities and other goods
Businesses unable tocollect
revenuesto pay their
obligations
Michigan’s Role in International Trade:
$37 billion in 2005 Exports
Source: The Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
World Total: $37,584,052
Partner Amount
Canada 22,633,157
Mexico 4,193,399
Japan 1,070,898
Germany 1,056,962
UK 715,931
China 697,860
Austria 591,512
France 478,730
South Korea 464,907
Belgium 442,777
Brazil 404,462
Saudi Arabia 396,193
Netherlands 385,685
Australia 369,631
Venezuela 357,334
(In Thousands of USD)
Michigan’s Top 15
Export Markets
………
What Other Businesses Are Doing
A Case Study: Intel Corporation
Intel Corporation, the world leader in silicon innovation, has nearly 100,000 employees in
199countries. Their 2005 revenues were $38.8
Billion.
After the SARS outbreak in 2003 which cost thelives of several of their colleagues in Asia, they
aren’t taking any chances with an Avian Flu Pandemic
Threat.
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation
• Design Responses Around Each Level of the 6-phaseThreat Scale
• Organize Cross-Functional teams (Preparedness, Regional Response, Travel, Threat Assessment, Corporate Emergency Operations Center)
• Start Hygiene Campaign For the Work Place Including Educational Materials and Hand Sanitizer Pumps
• Establish Corporate Communication Lines (especially for expatriates) and a Medical Triage Contact Number
• Create System to Track Cases of Illness and Severity
The WHO Global Influenza Scale
Source: World Health Organization
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation
Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6
Current Additional Actions
• Activate Management Review Committee/ Task Force Planning Team/ Regional Teams• Designate a Centralized Communications Coordinator• Promotional Campaign for Good Hygiene practices
– Install hand gel dispensers – Ensure adequate supply of N95 respirators for employees
• Assist medical personnel to get Tamiflu “prescription” pre-written [Intel is not stockpiling medication]• Order N95 Respirators•Encourage regular flu vaccines• Promote additional food safety practices • Stockpile disinfectants and review cleaning protocols• Control bird roosting areas at facilities
• Start 2X daily building disinfection • Implement phone-based triage & medical case management for symptom review & contact tracing• Employee and contractor self-screening tool distribution in affected areas • Restrict travel – General Manager sign-off required in both geographies (going to and coming from)•Ensure Medical Evacuation Protocols Understood•Implement 1 800-Hot-Line / other emergency communication procedures
• Employee/contractor temperature screening at point of entry (geo specific)• Additional disinfection procedures for clean-rooms & equipment• Distribute N95 respirators• Communicate protocols for working from home• Review procedure for closing facilities if cases occur in work environment •Additional cleaning of gowns/smocks in factories
• Aggressive communications and updates•Distribute self-care pandemic information to employees
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation
Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006
Track and Manage Any Cases In a Case Management System
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation
Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006
Point of Entry Temperature Screening
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation
Above all, communicate with your work force as much as
possible.• Roles, Responsibilities and Goals for All Involved• Company Approach Toward Managing the Threat• Employee Instructions At Each Phase on the Threat
Scale• Any Situational Updates• Trigger Points • Return Policy for Expatriates Overseas• How To Stay In Touch Once Homebound or Ill• Organizational Contact List • Guiding Principles Throughout All Phases (next slide)
A Case Study: The Intel Corporation
Guiding Principles for Intel’s Pandemic Response:
• We promote a healthy work environment • We treat people with dignity and respect
through communication and transparency • We will minimize the spread of infection by
partnering with local governments and public health organizations, such as WHO and CDC
• We will implement a staggered deployment strategy based on risk and need at each location/geography
• We will maintain business continuity by developing appropriate levels of coordination and contingency planning
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
Utilize tools and resources from this summit
Establish a pandemic flu team
First goal: conduct an audit of implications for company
Challenge: report findings to top leadership within 2 weeks
Set measurable goals and constantly monitor progress, get buy-in from corporate level management to ensure involvement
Tier employees into layers most and least critical to operations; cross train Tier 2 and 3 staff
Hold leaders accountable for progress and compliance
Examine supplier and other external relationships and identify alternatives and back-ups
Identify where your business is most vulnerable and back up the weak points (e.g. “just in time” inventory)
You’ve heard the experts – the next pandemic is not a matter of ‘if’,
but ‘when.’
You have a lot of work to do!
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
Consider The Following:On the morning of September 11, 2001 approximately 19,000 employees were
workingin World Trade Center Towers 1 & 2 and 58,000 people in the entire World
TradeCenter complex. Following the plane impacts, Tower 1 stood for 103 minutes
and Tower2 stood for only 56 minutes.During that brief time, nearly 17,000 employees evacuated safely.
Casualties among building occupants numbered 2,270 (not including the 403 first responder and
157 plane passengers). Roughly 88% survived a mass exodus from two of the tallest structures in the world.
The Explanation: Consistent and regular fire drills resulted in an instinctive and orderly evacuation despite conflicting instructions and limited exit routes. WTC disaster training saved thousands of lives that day and is one of the untold success stories of that unforgettable day.
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
Thank You and Good Luck!
For additional copies of this presentationOr the “Looking Ahead” checklist contact:
Gayle [email protected]
(703) 585-7647