Jon
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Jon Peddie Research
Focus and emphasis on Visualization, Graphics, and forms of reality
Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and investors
Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies
Product testing and benchmarking
Conferences
Chasing Pixels, Finding Visual Magic
Jon
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esea
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Jon Peddie Research “Whatever influences a pixel”
Primary interest,
expertise, and tracking
General interest, information
gathering, and limited tracking
Semiconductor Fabrication
Display
System Memory
CPU
Drivers
Application
Communications & peripheral services
Standards
OS
Video Processor
Graphics Processor
Local Memory
Audio Processor
Receiver(s)
Front-end Processor
DVD
Input Processor
Image sensor
Image Processor
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Agenda – Why are we here?
Introduce talking points for discussion
Brief history of computer graphics
The gaming platforms
Market size and growth
Thoughts and speculations on the future
Q&A
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How long?
When do you think the game developer conference started?
Depending on who you ask, 1997 to 1999.
Actually it was 1993 and was the GamePC Consortium, a loose confederation of hardware and software companies
Jon
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Look How Far We Have Come
In 1996 the best the industry could do was an image of
100,000 triangles, 30 times a second, on a 640 x 480 screen ,
Lora Croft from 1996 Lora Croft from 2013
By 2013 it was possible to generate over a 100 million polygons at 60 to 120 times a
second on screens greater than HD
Jon
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History of Computer Graphics
3D on mainframes
Wireframe CAD
3D on Min Computer &
Workstations
Wireframe CAD
1950s to 1960s
1970s Developments in Rendering and
Photorealism
(Ray-Tracing, Texture Mapping, Voxels
Simulators and early animation
3D on game consoles
1980s
1990s
Introduction of the
PC
Developments in Conics, Bezier curves,
Surface patches, NURBS, lines, Solid
Modeling, Finite Element Modeling
3D in the movies
Introduction of 3D
games on the PC
VGA to
3DVGA
GPUs
2000s
Photorealism, Physics, AI
2nd gen 3D game
consoles
3rd gen 3D game
consoles
3D on Mobile
Phones &
Tablets
3D on
Handheld
consoles
8th gen 3D game
consoles
The SAGE terminal
It wasn’t a smooth path
Jon
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mainframes
Minicomputers
Microcomputers
Mobile Computers
Personal Computers
Evolution of Computer game machines
1940
1960
1970
1980
2000
Computer chess program (1947)NIM (1951)Tic Tac Toe (1952)
SpaceWar (1962)
Game Consoles
Arcade Machines
Handheld Game Consoles
Vacuum Tubes
Transistors
Integrated Circuits
Micro-processors
Fairchild Channel F Casino Poker, Space Odyssey, and Pro-
Football(1976)
Atari - Computer Space (1971)
Relay-based Computers
Zuse Z1 1936
Mattel – Football (1976)
Tetris (1994)
Adventure (1977)
Test Drive (1982)
(3D) Duke Nukem (1996)
VR
VR 2
As soon as you have a technology, someone tries to make a game out of it – Kathleen Maher 2007.
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0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GPU
GFL
OPS
GPU GFLOPS
PC GPU
Console
Mobile
OGL ES 1.0
OGL ES 1.1 OGL ES 2.0
OGL ES 3.0
OGL ES 3.1
PS4
PS4
Xbox
Xbox 360
There is no such thing as catching up Moore’s law serves all platforms Only software holds us back
Are mobile devices catching up to consoles and PCs?
Jon
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These are not either-or. Gamers have most, if not all of these machines (except maybe arcade)
PC 33%
Consoles 16%
Android Consoles 0.07%
Smart Phones 23%
Tablets 11%
Handhelds 3%
Location based 6%
Peripherals 8%
2014 Gaming Hardware Market
$67 Billion Gaming Hardware Market 2014
Jon
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Enthusiast DT 1%
Performance DT 3%
dGPU DT Mainstream 7% iGPU Mainstream DT
34% High-end NB 5%
dGPU Mainsream NB 8%
iGPU Mainstream NB 42%
PC Units Market Share 2014
$22 Billion, 5% CAGR
Jon
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Mice 25%
Speaker Systems 22%
Keyboards 19%
Wired Headsets 19%
Wireless Headsets 6%
Flight Controllers 2%
Driving Controllers 3%
Gamepad/Arcade Controllers
3%
Head Tracking / Motion tracking
1%
Peripheral PC Gaming Market $6b 1.5% CAGR
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Sony 47%
Nintendo 15%
Microsoft 38%
Console Units Market Share 2014
Traditional TV-based Console Gaming Machines - $11B 3% CAGR
Jon
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Sony 33% Nintendo
67%
Handheld Units Market Share 2014
Traditional Handheld Gaming Consoles $2b -2% CAGR
Jon
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New Handheld Gaming Machines $33 m 50% CAGR
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Market value ($M)
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Android Consoles
We define Android consoles as any device designed to play Android games on TV’s. Shield is really a path maker. The micro-consoles will have their niche, larger opportunity is on large screens using a gamepad to play.
Jon
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Android Consoles Amazon Fire TV + Controller Gamepop Gamestick Google Android TV plus controller MadCatz Mojo Ouya Razer ForgeTV Shield Portable Shield Tablet + Controller Shield Console
Jon
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rch 84.9% of the 700 top grossing apps
were games (Media Research)
Ave 50% phone users play games (Media Horizons)
Jon
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Mobile Games
Consumers are spending so much time—and money—playing games on smartphones and tablets that Newzoo, a video game research firm, has had to raise its 2014 global revenue forecast from $21.7 billion to $25 billion. The new total is a 43% increase over mobile game revenues recorded for 2013.
Jon
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Assumptions on Gaming Market Value
The average selling price of a smartphone is $297
1 billion smartphones shipped in 2014
Assume game playing influenced 5% of the purchases
Smartphone gaming market worth $15 billion CAGR 5%
Jon
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Assumptions on Gaming Market Value
The average selling price of a tablet is $294
260 million Tablets shipped in 2014
Assume game playing influenced 10% of the purchased
Tablet gaming market worth $7.6 billion CAGR 4%
Jon
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Mobile Games According to eMarketer, Mobile Game Revenues to Grow
16.5% in 2015, Surpassing $3 Billion.
Jon
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A boom in the Bay area and elsewhere in the late 1970s and early 1980s – and then banned.
“The older generation has no qualms about leaving us with dirty air, dirty water, and 9,000 nuclear warheads, but they worry about whether video games are good for us,” Steve Lisberger (Tron director)
Game Arcades
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Twitch
has more than 100 million visitors per month and accounts for a huge amount of Web traffic. In the week ending Feb. 3, for example, Twitch accounted for 1.8 percent of peak U.S. Internet traffic – ranking fourth after Netflix, Google and Apple, and above Hulu, Facebook, and Amazon.
In August, Amazone acquired Twitch for $970 Million- CASH
Jon
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Summary - So What?
The gaming hardware market is huge - $67 Billion - more than Syria’s GNP, and 75 other countries
Gaming software market $26 Billion
New platforms will add new players
Games will be cross-platform
Moore’s law serves all platforms
Jon
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[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Chasing pixels – finding Visual Magic
Be seeing you