The Role of Coal in 2050
By Steve Goldthorpe(on the occasion of his 100th birthday)
To the Civic Responsibilities Class of Bream Bay College
Historical Perspective
• 1970s Oil Shock • Coal liquefaction R & D
• 1990s Climate Change – FCCC• CCS R & D
• 2015 Oil Crisis• Coal liquefaction started in NZ
• 2025 Climate Crisis• Adaptation
Sources of NZ transport fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
2044
2049
PJ
pe
r ye
ar
Net Importedcrude or products
Coal liquefaction
Biodiesel fromcrops etc
Indigenous crudeand condensate
Natural gas viaMTG process
Oil production in NZ
• 1980-2000– Maui oil and gas field bonanza
• 1985-1995– Petrol production from natural gas
• 2005- 2015– Pohokura, Tui & Maari oil production
• 2025 onwards– Small finds and gradual oil production decline– Production of biodiesel from crops– Coal liquefaction due to inability to import sufficient oil to meet demand
Liquid transport fuel demand
• Personal transport– Growing population– Rural lifestyle sustained– Partial transition to electric cars– Net effect no change in demand
• Freight transport– Growing economy– Closure of rural rail in 2012– Improvement in trucking logistics– Net effect no change in demand
Electricity
• 95% renewable after 2025– Hydro, Geothermal, Wind, Waves, Solar
• Increased demand from electric vehicles
• Distributed generation and smart grids to provide security of supply
• Gas turbines for short term back-up• Coal firing at Huntly in dry years
Consequences
• Adaptation to frequent severe storms
• Individual Coastal communities decided strategy of either– Managed retreat from
low-lying coastal land , or
– Building coastal defences
• Reduction in biodiversity
Apology
• Our baby-boomer generation– Understood the adverse effects of our
unsustainable civilisation on the global ecology
– Understood what actions were needed to leave Planet Earth in good condition for future generations
• BUT, – we failed to get our self-serving habits under
control