The UK’s Commitment to Net Zero
The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming
Julia, Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS Vice Chair of the Committee on Climate Change
8th October 2019
UK Climate Change Act 2008
2
When: science and global imperative?
How: can it be done?
How much: what will it cost?
How big: the scale of the challenge?
Even in the UK the impacts of climate change are bleak
4Source: HR Wallingford (2015) for the ASC- Updated projections of water availability in the UK
Demand as % of supplyof available supply
Scenario:• 3.5oC• low population growth• high adaptation
In some areas (dark red) there is no water available for human use during periods of low flows, assuming the needs of the natural environment are met first.
Water availability in the 2080s
Science and international contextGlobal emissions pathways consistent with Paris
5
Observed and human-induced warming
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Warm
ing
(°C
-re
lati
ve t
o 1
85
0-
19
00
) Observations
Human-induced
warming
Source: HadCRUT4, NOAA, NASA and Cowtan & Way datasets; IPCC
(2018) Chapter 1 - Framing and Context.
Science and international contextGlobal emissions pathways consistent with Paris
6
Global emissions pathways consistent with Paris
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
601990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Gre
en
ho
use
gas
em
issi
on
s (G
tCO
2e/y
r)
>66% 2°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Median
>66% 2°C - Median
Historical
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
Science and international contextGlobal emissions pathways consistent with Paris
7
Global emissions pathways consistent with Paris
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
601990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
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2080
2090
2100
Gre
en
ho
use
gas
em
issi
on
s (G
tCO
2e/y
r)
>66% 2°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Median
>66% 2°C - Median
Historical
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
Science and international contextGlobal emissions pathways consistent with Paris
8
Evolution of global per capita emissions over time
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
151990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100G
HG
em
issi
on
s p
er
cap
ita
(tC
O2
e/p
ers
on
/yr)
>66% 2°C - Range
>50 %1.5°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Median
>66% 2°C - Median
Historical - World
Historical - UK
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
Science and international contextGlobal emissions pathways consistent with Paris
9
Evolution of global per capita emissions over time
-5
0
5
10
15
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
per
cap
ita
(tC
O2
e/p
ers
on
/yr) >66% 2°C - Range
>50 %1.5°C - Range
>50% 1.5°C - Median
>66% 2°C - Median
Historical - World
Historical - UK
Source: Huppmann, D. et al. (2018) A new scenario resource for
integrated 1.5°C research.
20
25
30
35
Australia
UK
World
International context: Paris Agreement
10
• Paris:
• Consistent with highest possible ambition
• Fair and ambitious in the light of national circumstances
• The UK should target net zero early:
• UK has the capability to be more ambitious than the world as a whole
• Rapidly reduced emissions since 1990 – now at the global average per person
• Has a stable and well supported framework: The Climate Change Act
• Should contribute more on an equity basis
• 80% from 1990 by 2050 in the Climate Change Act - equal per capita emissions basis
• but the UK has a large historical contribution to climate change
• and as a result is a rich economy
• with a significant demand for overseas products – a large carbon footprint
• Should support the global effort
• increasing effort in rich countries to ease the pace in middle income and developing countries
• early deployment and cost reduction of new technologies – eg offshore wind
• facilitating technology transfer and institutional development
Progress in reducing emissions
11
UK Australia
International context: Paris Agreement
12
• Paris:
• Consistent with highest possible ambition
• Fair and ambitious in the light of national circumstances
• The UK should target net zero early:
• UK has the capability to be more ambitious than the world as a whole
• Rapidly reduced emissions since 1990 – now at the global average per person
• Has a stable and well supported framework: The Climate Change Act
• Should contribute more on an equity basis
• 80% from 1990 by 2050 in the Climate Change Act - equal per capita emissions basis
• but the UK has a large historical contribution to climate change
• and as a result is a rich economy
• with a significant demand for overseas products – a large carbon footprint
• Should support the global effort
• increasing effort in rich countries to ease the pace in middle income and developing countries
• early deployment and cost reduction of new technologies – eg offshore wind
• facilitating technology transfer and institutional development
UK Carbon Footprint: consumption emissions
Net Zero – the UK’s contribution to stopping global warming CCC 2019. Excludes F-gas emissions and international aviation and shipping 13
Financial crisis/recession
Consumption vs territorial emissions 2016
CCC Progress Report to Parliament 2019 includes international aviation and shipping 14
International context: Paris Agreement
15
• Paris:
• Consistent with highest possible ambition
• Fair and ambitious in the light of national circumstances
• The UK should target net zero early:
• UK has the capability to be more ambitious than the world as a whole
• Rapidly reduced emissions since 1990 – now at the global average per person
• Has a stable and well supported framework: The Climate Change Act
• Should contribute more on an equity basis
• 80% from 1990 by 2050 in the Climate Change Act - equal per capita emissions basis
• but the UK has a large historical contribution to climate change
• and as a result is a rich economy
• with a significant demand for overseas products – a large carbon footprint
• Should support the global effort
• increasing effort in rich countries to ease the pace in middle income and developing countries
• early deployment and cost reduction of new technologies – eg offshore wind
• facilitating technology transfer and institutional development
International pathways: leadership driven scenarios
CCC Net Zero 2019: UCL research 16
• Developed regions
• In line with emerging commitments: achieve
or exceed net zero by 2050
• Large emerging economies eg China
• Improve on NDCs, peak soon, reduce rapidly
over next 20 years, reach net zero before the
end of the century
• Efficiency, decarbonising power,
electrification, CCS
• Developing regions
• Leapfrog to low carbon development paths,
low per capita emissions, can reach net zero
until well after 2050
• Per person emissions from the developed regions in 2050 would be lower than in the rest of the world
International context: Paris Agreement
17
• Paris:
• Consistent with highest possible ambition
• Fair and ambitious in the light of national circumstances
• The UK should target net zero early:
• UK has the capability to be more ambitious than the world as a whole
• Rapidly reduced emissions since 1990 – now at the global average per person
• Has a stable and well supported framework: The Climate Change Act
• Should contribute more on an equity basis
• 80% from 1990 by 2050 in the Climate Change Act - equal per capita emissions basis
• but the UK has a large historical contribution to climate change
• and as a result is a rich economy
• with a significant demand for overseas products – a large carbon footprint
• Should support the global effort
• increasing effort in rich countries to ease the pace in middle income and developing countries
• early deployment and cost reduction of new technologies – eg offshore wind
• facilitating technology transfer and institutional development
Technology cost reduction: offshore wind
CCC analysis 2017 18
Latest Contracts for Difference auction prices
CfD Auction Results Sept 2019
International context: Paris Agreement
19
• Paris:
• Consistent with highest possible ambition
• Fair and ambitious in the light of national circumstances
• The UK should target net zero early:
• UK has the capability to be more ambitious than the world as a whole
• Rapidly reduced emissions since 1990 – now at the global average per person
• Has a stable and well supported framework: The Climate Change Act
• Should contribute more on an equity basis
• 80% from 1990 by 2050 in the Climate Change Act - equal per capita emissions basis
• but the UK has a large historical contribution to climate change
• and as a result is a rich economy
• with a significant demand for overseas products – a large carbon footprint
• Should support the global effort
• increasing effort in rich countries to ease the pace in middle income and developing countries
• early deployment and cost reduction of new technologies – eg offshore wind
• facilitating technology transfer and institutional development
When: science and global imperative?
How: can it be done?
How much: what will it cost?
How big: the scale of the challenge?
Source of emissions: UK and Victoria
CCC analysis 2018 21
UK Victoria
The journey so far
CCC Progress Report to Parliament 2019 22
Australia: change in emissions by sector
23
From 80% to 100%
CCC Progress Report to Parliament 2019 24
Options to reduce emissions 1
25
Core options: to 77%
• Low cost, low regret, make sense under the
current 80% target
• Broadly reflect Government’s current ambition
– but not necessarily policy implementation
• eg energy efficiency, phase out of
conventionally fuelled vehicles by 2040,
progress with zero carbon power generation,
first industrial cluster by 2040, Carbon Capture,
Utilisation and Storage action plan, wood in
construction, limited implementation of
BECCS, afforestation 27,000 hectares per
annum
• Remaining emissions mainly from industry,
agriculture, aviation, heavy transport and
heating of buildings
• Carbon prices typically below ~ £20 per tonne
Options to reduce emissions 2
26
Further ambition: to 96%
• More challenging, more costly, existing technologies
• Electricity 95% low carbon power, including hydrogen
• Buildings 90% low carbon heating including hydrogen
• All cars and vans electric by 2050; HGVs electric or hydrogen
• Industry: CCS, hydrogen and electrification
• Waste: 70% recycling, zero biodegradable waste to landfill by 2025
• Shipping: faster implementation of efficiency and alternative fuels
• Agriculture and land use: improved livestock breeding and diets; 20%
reduction in beef , lamb and dairy, increased yields, 30,000 hectares per
annum afforestation; 55% peatland restoration, increased energy crops
• Aviation: 60% increase in demand with further technical improvements
• CO2 removal: afforestation, wood in construction, BECCS, DACCs –
small scale; CCS: 175Mt CO2 captured and stored in 2050
• Carbon price up to £120/tonne – industry and heat at top end
CO2 Removal 2050
Options to reduce emissions 3
27
Speculative options: to 100%
• Low technology readiness; high costs; acceptability issues
• Not all available by 2050, some required for net zero
• Significant societal and behaviour changes:
• 50% reduction in beef, lamb and dairy
• No growth in aviation from today
• Afforestation, 50,000 ha/annum, peatland restoration
• More ambitious BECCS – increased energy crops
• Increased DACCS – 14% increase in CCS, +10GW OSW
• Enhanced weathering and biochar
• Synthetic fuels – +33% generating capacity
• CCS capture rates at 99%
• Increased use of hydrogen
• Carbon price to > £300 per tonne
28
2040s2030s2020s
Electricity
Hydrogen
Buildings
Road Transport
Industry
Land Use
Expand electricity system, decarbonise mid-merit/peak
generation (e.g. using hydrogen), deploy bioenergy with CCS
Widespread deployment in industry, use in back-up electricity generation,
heavier vehicles (e.g. HGVs, trains) and potentially heating on the coldest days
Widespread electrification, expand heat networks,
gas grids potentially switch to hydrogen
Start large-scale hydrogen
production with CCS
Largely decarbonise electricity:
renewables, flexibility, coal phase-out
Efficiency, heat networks, heat
pumps (new-build, off-gas, hybrids)
Turn over fleets to zero-emission vehicles: cars & vans before HGVsRamp up EV market, decisions on HGVs
Afforestation, peatland restoration
Agriculture
Further CCS, widespread use of
hydrogen, some electrification
Healthier diets, reduced food waste, tree growing and low-carbon farming practices
Initial CCS clusters,
energy & resource efficiency
@ChiefExecCCC
How UK net-zero scenarios can be delivered
29
2040s2030s2020s
Aviation
Shipping
Waste
F-Gases
Removals
Infra-structure
Limit emissions from combustion of non-bio
wastes (e.g. deploy measures to reduce emissions from waste water)Reduce waste, increase recycling rates,
landfill ban for biodegradable waste
Deployment of BECCS in various forms, demonstrate direct
air capture of CO₂, other removals depending on progressDevelop options & policy framework
Co-benefits
Hydrogen supply for industry & potentially buildings, roll-out of infrastructure for
hydrogen/electric HGVs, more CCS infrastructure, electricity network expansion
Health benefits due to improved air quality, healthier diets and more walking & cyclingClean growth and industrial opportunities
Industrial CCS clusters, decisions on gas
grid & HGV infrastructure, expand vehicle
charging & electricity grids
@ChiefExecCCC
Operational measures, new plane efficiency, constrained demand growth, limited sustainable biofuels
Operational measures, new ship fuel efficiency, use of ammonia
Move almost completely away from F-gases
How UK net-zero scenarios can be delivered
When: science and global imperative?
How: can it be done?
How much: what will it cost?
How big: the scale of the challenge?
Reaching net-zero emissions in the UKCosts and benefits of meeting a UK net-zero target
31
Innovation and falling technology costs are reducing the cost of meeting the target
Changes in cost estimates for long-term emissions goals
GHG emissions reduction target (relative to 1990)
Year and report Cost range estimated for 2050
60% reduction in CO₂ (~55%
reduction in GHG)
2003 - Energy White Paper 0.5-2.0% of GDP
80% reduction in GHG 2008 - Building a low-carbon economy – the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change
1-2% of GDP
100% reduction in GHG 2019 – Net Zero report 1-2% of GDP
Reaching net-zero emissions in the UKCosts and benefits of meeting a UK net-zero target
32
A 2030 switchover to electric vehicles would save more money than a 2040 switchover
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Net co
st o
f sw
itch
ing t
o e
lect
ric
cars
and
vans
(£b
n/y
ear) 2040 phase-out
2030 phase-out
Source: CCC analysis
Benefits
33
• Reducing the impacts of climate change
• Flooding, heatwaves, crop failures, migration…
• £££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££
• Economic opportunities
• Clean growth; fastest growing sector of UK economy
• Health benefits ~ 1.3% GDP
• More exercise, cleaner air, noise reduction, healthier
diets, healthier homes
• Environment
• More woodlands, hedgerows, wildlife, recreation, water
and soil quality…
When: science and global imperative?
How: can it be done?
How much: what will it cost?
How big: the scale of the challenge?
Societal/behavioural change needed
35
38%
53%
9%
Low-carbon technologies or fuels not
societal / behavioural changes
Measures with a combination of low-
carbon technologies and societal /
behavioural changes
Largely societal or behavioural changes
Source: CCC analysis
How big? In the next 30 years…
36
• Electricity system x2 to x4
• Offshore wind 10 GW to 75 - 100GW
• Hydrogen production 27TWh to 350TWh
• CCS 0 to 180 Mt CO2
• Afforestation 10,000 to 50,000 hectares pa
• 29 million existing homes installed with low carbon heat
• Zero carbon cars 100,000 to 35 million
• Major changes in agriculture and land use
• Major changes to diet: beef, lamb and dairy consumption halved
All at the same time
@ChiefExecCCC 37
H2 H2H2H2 H2H2
Energy supply Energy use Land
CO2 storage
H2H2H2 H2H2
How UK net-zero scenarios can be delivered
@ChiefExecCCC 38
H2 H2H2H2 H2H2
Energy supply Energy use Land
CO2 storage
H2H2H2 H2H2
How UK net-zero scenarios can be delivered
A few final reflections
We don’t have all the answers
40
Remaining emissions in the 96% ‘Further Ambition’ scenario
Source: CCC analysis
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2050
emissions
by sector
MtC
O2
e
F-gases
Nitrous oxide
Methane
Carbon dioxide
Shipping
F-gases
Surface transport
Power
Hydrogen production
Buildings
Waste
Industry
Agriculture
Aviation
Engineered removals
LULUCF
Fossil fuel use continues
41
Total CO₂ captured and stored due to Further Ambition options in 2050
Source: CCC analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
CO₂ captured and stored in 2050
MtC
O2
Fossil CCS (power generation)
Fossil CCS (hydrogen production)
Direct air capture with CCS
BECCS (all sectors)
Fossil CCS (industry)
Innovation has moved the dial
42
Costs of example low-carbon technologies compared to past projectionsOffshore wind (left) Battery packs (right)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016
2020
2025
2030
Leveli
sed
cost
of
ele
ctri
city
-£
/MW
h
(£2
01
8)
DECCestimate(2012)
Contractssigned in2013
Contractssigned in2015
Contractssigned in2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Batt
ery
pack
co
st -
$/K
Wh
(£
20
18
)
CCCcentralestimate(2011)
Actualaveragecost
Source: Offshore wind costs, CCC analysis based on DECC (2012) Electricity generation costs and LCCC (2019) CfD register. Battery forecasts,
CCC (2015) Sectoral scenarios for the 5th Carbon Budget, outturn costs from BNEF (2018) Electric cars to reach price parity by 2022
We need to get going…
Greta Thunberg
44
“This needs Cathedral Thinking.
We can build the foundations without
knowing exactly how we will complete
the roof”
Thank you!
www.theccc.org.uk
Our approach to forecasting
@ChiefExecCCC 46
Security
of supply
Fuel
poverty
Competi
-tiveness
Fiscal
impactsEconomic
impacts
Air quality
& health
Impacts
UK Carbon Budgets (interim targets)
Sectors: scenarios, costs, required policy
Power Buildings Industry Transport AgricultureWaste &
F-gases
Climate
science
International
& EU
2050 Target
Fossil fuel use continues
@ChiefExecCCC 47
Use and production of Hydrogen in 2050
Source: CCC analysis
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Hydrogen demand Hydrogen production
TW
h
Electrolysis
Advanced gas-
reforming
Agriculture
Power generation
Industry
Heat in buildings
Surface transport
Shipping
Summary recommendations
48
• Net zero target is only credible if policy to reduce emissions ramps up significantly
‒ The target can only be delivered with a strengthening of policy to deliver emissions reductions across all levels and
departments of government. This will require strong leadership at the heart of Government. Delivery must progress
with far greater urgency.
‒ Policies must be designed with businesses and consumers in mind. They must be stable, long-term and investable. The
public must be engaged, and other key barriers such as low availability of necessary skills must be addressed.
‒ Report emphasises previous CCC recommendations for: Heating buildings; CCS; Electric vehicles; Agriculture; Waste;
Low Carbon Power.
‒ With new recommendations for stronger approaches to: Industry; land use; HGVs; aviation and shipping; and GHG
removals.
• Overall costs are manageable, but must be fairly distributed. Rapid cost reductions during mass deployment for key
technologies mean that net zero can be met an annual resource cost of up to 1-2% of GDP to 2050, the same cost as the
previous expectation for an 80% reduction from 1990.
• HM Treasury should undertake a review of how the transition will be funded and where the costs will fall. It should
develop a strategy to ensure this is, and is perceived to be, fair. A broader strategy will also be needed to ensure a ‘just transition’ across society, with vulnerable workers and consumers protected.
CCC recommendations to Government 2nd May 2019
49
• The UK should legislate as soon as possible to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The target can be
legislated as a 100% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 1990 using the existing Climate Change Act procedures.
• The target should cover all sectors of the economy, including international aviation and shipping.
• The aim should be to meet the target through UK domestic effort, without relying on international carbon units (or
‘credits’).
• Now is the right time to set a net zero target. It is technically possible, based on current consumer behaviours and known technologies, with prudent assumptions over cost reduction.
• An earlier date should not be set at this stage. Some sectors could reach net zero earlier, but for most sectors 2050
appears to be the earliest credible date, to give time to develop speculative options as alternatives for any shortfalls.
Avoiding the need for early capital scrappage or punitive policies.
• The target is an appropriate contribution to the Paris Agreement. The UK can benefit from the international influence
of setting this bold target, using it as an opportunity for further positive international collaboration.
• Wales should set a target for a 95% reduction in emissions by 2050 relative to 1990. Wales has less opportunity for
CO2 storage and relatively high agricultural emissions that are hard to reduce. On current understanding it could not
credibly reach net-zero GHGs by 2050.
• Scotland should aim for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. Scotland has proportionately greater potential
for emissions removal than the UK overall and can credibly adopt a more ambitious target. Interim targets should be set
for Scottish emissions reductions (relative to 1990) of 70% by 2030 and 90% by 2040.
Victoria’s emissions 1990 - 2016
50
Victoria’s emissions by sector 2016
51
Victoria’s climate change framework
52
Victoria’s four pillars for emissions reduction
53
Relationship between hot weather and averages
54
Electricity generation mix in Victoria 2014
55
Australia 2018/19 emissions by sector
56
Australia: electricity generation
57