Tourism Towards 2030
Agenda Item 5a 24th Joint Meeting of the UNWTO Commission for East Asia and the Pacific and the UNWTO Commission for South Asia 4 May 2012 Chiang Mai, Thailand
International tourist arrivals
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
mill
ion Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2010*
881 mn
Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend
World
528 mn
940 mn
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 2030
• A broad research project of long-term forecasting, following up on work initiated by UNWTO in the 1990s
• Objectives: – Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans
– Provide a global reference on future tourism development
– Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects
– Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities
• Central to the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 2010-2030 – Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are
used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010
– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable. Two independent variables are used: 1) growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential; 2) cost of transport.
World
Growth in international tourism will continue,
but at a more moderate pace
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
3
0
0
1
9
4
3
9
7
6
7
0
9
3
44
6
5
3
4
8
0
3
-2
10
66
7
2
-4
7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29
Average growth 2010-2030
3.3% a year
2010-2020
3.8% a year
2020-2030
2.9% a year
International tourist arrivals to increase
by 43 million a year on average
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
8
0
0
4
25
1310
3027
22
28
-2
39
15
21 20
33
26
16
22
49
-1
20
-11
70
45 45
56
20
-35
58
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Average increase 2010-2030
43 million a year
2010-2020
42 mn a year
2020-2030
45 mn a year
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
International tourist arrivals to reach
1.8 billion by 2030
1 bn
1.8 bn
1.4 bn
Emerging economy destinations to surpass
advanced destinations in 2015
Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million
emerging economies
advanced economies
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will gain most
of the new arrivals
Africa
Middle East
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East
and Africa to increase their shares
Africa
3%
Americas
23%
Asia and the Pacific
8%
Europe
63%
Middle East
3%
Middle East
6%
Europe
51%
Asia and the Pacific
22%
Americas
16%
Africa
5%
Africa
7%
Americas
14%
Asia and the Pacific
30%
Europe
41%
Middle East
8%
1980 (277 mn)
2010 (940 mn)
2030 (1.8 bn)
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will also be the
outbound region that grows most
Europe generates most arrivals relative to
population, while Asia & Pacific is still low
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
9
2
14
3
36
6
14
3
17
5
57
1722
6
24
12
89
25
61
12
1
21
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
World Africa Americas Asia and the
Pacific
Europe Middle East
1980 1995 2010 2030
No major change in share by purpose of visit
International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million
Leisure, recreation and holidays
VFR, health, religion, other
Business and professional
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Air transport will continue to increase
market share, but at a slower pace
International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million
by air
over surface
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and
the Pacific
International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
16
8
4
2
1112 12
14
16
1
14
3
13
1011
3
10
-1 0
11
12
5
8
-10
27
8 8
10
1
-2
13
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29
Growth in international tourism to continue
at an average rate of almost 5% a year
Average growth 2010-2030
4.9% a year
2010-2020
5.7% a year
2020-2030
4.2% a year
International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
32
1 1
3 3 45
7
1
7
2
86
8
2
8
-1 0
9
12
5
9
-12
30
1112
16
2
-3
23
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
International tourist arrivals to increase
by 17 million a year on average
Average increase 2010-2030
17 million a year
2010-2020
15 mn a year
2020-2030
18 mn a year
International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, million
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific : Intl tourist arrivals still
to grow from 200 mn to over 500 mn
204 mn
535 mn
355 mn
Asia and thePacific: Inbound tourism by subregion of destination International tourist arrivals, million
North-East Asia
South-East Asia
South Asia
Oceania
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific by subregion
International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth %
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
6.6
7.5
6.1
7.7
6.2
6.8
4.8
6.5
10.5
7.4
3.3
2.4
3.7
2.4
2.1
3.2
1.3
6.0 5.95.8
5.25.1 4.9
4.6 4.6 4.64.3
3.1
2.42.3
2.01.8 1.8 1.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
South
Asia
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
East A
frica
Centra
l Am
erica
South
-Eas
t Asia
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
Midd
le Eas
t
South
ern
Africa
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Ocean
ia
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
Caribb
ean
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
North
ern
Europ
e
North
Am
erica
1995-2010
2010-2030
South Asia subregion with fastest growth (%)
International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average absolute change over previous year, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
4.7
2.8
4.7
3.1
2.5
2.8
1.2
0.8 0.8
0.5 0.5
1.5
0.60.3 0.4 0.4
0.2
9.1
5.9
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.4
2.01.7
1.41.3 1.2 1.2
0.8 0.7 0.70.5
0.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
-Eas
t Asia
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
Midd
le Eas
t
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
North
Am
erica
South
Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
East A
frica
South
Asia
North
ern
Europ
e
South
ern
Africa
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
Centra
l Am
erica
Caribb
ean
Ocean
ia
1995-2010
2010-2030
NE Asia subregion with fastest growth (abs.)
North-East Asia will be the most visited
subregion in 2030 International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
41
98
112
28
58
14
81
36
127 5 4
14
4 3 28
112
169
154
70
95
61
98
58
2419
12 11
20
138 7
12
293
264
222
187
176
149
138
82
58
46
37 3630 29
22 2219
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
South
-Eas
t Asia
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Midd
le Eas
t
North
Am
erica
North
ern
Europ
e
South
Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
East A
frica
South
Asia
Caribb
ean
South
ern
Africa
Centra
l Am
erica
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
Ocean
ia
1995
2010
2030
International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals received per 100 of population
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
62
47
42
38
15
9 9
28
8 86
21
3 42
1 0
81
71
63
48
2527
22
32
19
15
12
21
76
42 1
114
103
80
65
47 47 46
4038
2827 26
18
13
7
32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
South
ern/
Med
iter.
Eu.
North
ern
Europ
e
Caribb
ean
Centra
l/Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Midd
le Eas
t
South
ern
Africa
Ocean
ia
Centra
l Am
erica
North
Afri
ca
South
-Eas
t Asia
North
Am
erica
North
-Eas
t Asia
South
Am
erica
East A
frica
Wes
t and
Cen
tral A
frica
South
Asia
1995
2010
2030
Europe continues to lead in international
arrivals received per 100 of population
Asia and the Pacific, International tourism by purpose of visit International tourist arrivals, million
Leisure, recreation and holidays
VFR, health, religion, other
Business and professional
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific: leisure to grow fastest
Asia and the Pacific, International tourism by means of transport International tourist arrivals, million
by air
over surface
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific: air and surface transport
to grow at about the same pace
Share in
the world
Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific inbound tourism market
share of going up due to faster growth
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific outbound tourism also
growing at a faster pace
International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
within same region
between regions
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Travel between regions continues to grow
slightly faster than within the same region
Asia and the Pacific: Inbound tourism by region of origin International tourist arrivals, million
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bulk of arrivals in Asia and the Pacific
intraregional, mkt shares not to vary much
Africa
Middle East
Americas
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Market share of Asia and the Pacific in regional outbound markets International tourist arrivals, share, %
from Asia and the Pacific to Asia and the Pacific
from Americas to Asia and the Pacific
from Europe to Asia and the Pacific
from Middle East to Asia and the Pacific
from Africa to Asia and the Pacific
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
… but Asia and the Pacific is increasing
share in outbound travel from all regions
International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
from Africa to other regions
from Middle East to other regions
from Asia and the Pacific to other regions
from Americas to other regions
from World between regions
from Europe to other regions
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Travel from emerging markets more often to
same region, Europe more often outside
Round-up
What if assumptions change?
Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Actual data 1980-2010
Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)
Central projection
Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)
A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)
Tourism Towards 2030 in one page
• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030), as a result of four factors:
– The base volumes are higher, so smaller % increases still add substantial numbers
– Lower GDP growth, as economies mature
– A lower elasticity of travel to GDP
– A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones
• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources
• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts
Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Opportunities and challenges:
how to make it possible Five key areas that mark the future:
• For many countries tourism represents a powerful tool for social and economic development and the reduction of poverty through the creation of job and enterprises, infrastructure development and the export revenues earned
• In order to tap into this potential, it is essential to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda
• Sustainability (social, economic and environment) is more important than ever, addressing issues such as energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management
• Keep track of the changing consumer: more experienced and demanding customers, demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles, from service economy to experience economy, etc.
• Enhance competitiveness by shaping an adequate business environment: innovation, diversification of products, markets and segments, product development, ICT and technology in general, marketing and promotion, research, evaluation, human resources development, quality, etc.
Tourism towards
2030 /
Global Overview
Thank you very much
for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org