Towards Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Jamaica’s
Agriculture Sector: Overview and Insights
Kevon Rhiney, Michael Taylor, Arpita Mandal, Tannecia Stephenson, Jayaka Campbell, Jhannel Tomlinson, Lloyd Waller and Ministry of
Agriculture and Fisheries
Climate-smart Agriculture SymposiumKnutsford Court Hotel, Kingston Jamaica
Thursday July 16, 2015
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SECTOR RESILIENCE AND CLOSING PLENARY
Project Aims
• provide blueprint defining transformations needed to meet the related challenges of climate change and food security
• Strategy will inform on how to:• utilize R&D to promote CSA techniques consistent with the National Food and
Nutrition Security and Climate Change Policies • sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes while adapting to the
risks posed by climate variability and change • transform agriculture extension services to be more responsive to climate
variability and change• integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies in new and existing sector
programmes • guide Government actions to support decision-making including: research and
development, infrastructure investments and catastrophic event response strategies for the sector
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps
Approach
Guiding Principles:• Engage stakeholders in analysis and definition of strategies and actions
(Participatory)• Use of available data and scientific information (Evidence-driven)
PHAS
E O
NE 1. Desk review
2. Climate risk analysis3. 1st round of consultations
PHAS
E TW
O 1. Climate risk analysis (future)2. 2nd round of consultations3. Cost benefit analysis
PHAS
E TH
REE
1. 3rd round of consultations2. Financial and M&E Planning
- Situation analysis, vulnerability assessment, identify key subsectors, preliminary strategies
- Synthesize and further develop strategies, prioritization of strategies
- Validation of prioritized strategies, action planning
Design:
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps
Preliminary Results• Farming systems across Jamaica are particularly exposed and sensitive
to climate-induced shocks and stresses
• Timescale considerations• Short-term events: varies from year to year e.g. hurricanes, droughts,
floods and tropical storms• Medium-term events: may take several months or years to play out e.g.
ENSO and other oscillations • Long-term events: more profound changes in a region’s climate regime
(e.g. mean annual temperature), which may take place over century
• Vulnerability highly uneven and systemic
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps
Preliminary Results• Key climate-related threats (short to medium term)
• Extreme Climate Events (Hurricanes, droughts, heavy rains etc.)• Climate Variability• Pest and Diseases
Extreme Events Farmers Affected
Crops(Ha)
Crops(Value J$)
Livestock(Value J$)
HURRICANESCharley – August 2004 986 792 181,721,225 3,747,400Ivan – September 2004 117,698 11,130 4,988,959,007 1,389,387,398Dennis – July 2005 6,700 610 224,259,000 52,388,460Wilma – October 2005 19,973 1,572 348,881,160 71,377,020Emily – August 2007 1,499 656 56,455,200 604,800Dean – August 2007 63,707 5,473 1,302,297,120 75,556,800DROUGHTS2005 14,269 2,058 524,005,1372008 70 79 41,966,370 787,200
Source: RADA
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps
Preliminary Results• Key climate-related threats (long term)
• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events?• Changes in temperature and rainfall (Climate departure?)• Sea Level Rise
Source: CIAT 2008
CROP AVERAGECURRENT SUITABILITY
AVERAGE SUITABILTIYFOR 2030
AVERAGE SUITABILITYFOR 2050
AVERAGESUITABILITYCHANGE BY 2030
AVERAGESUITABILITYCHANGEBY 2050
Cabbage 91 73 57 -19 -35Carrot 88 66 53 -22 -35Cucumber 74 86 93 13 19Ginger 81 53 34 -27 -47Irish Potato 82 69 59 -13 -22Lettuce 92 76 64 -16 -28Average (N=14) 78 74 69 -4 -9
Average suitability change for selected crops by 2030 and 2050
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps
Preliminary Results• Results Matrix for Vulnerability Assessment of Key Agricultural
Subsectors• Banana• Coffee• Livestock (Cattle)
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps
EXPOSURE(Climate)
SENSITIVITY POTENTIAL IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
KEY SUBSECTORS Traditional Exports Banana a. Increased
occurrence of hurricanes;
b. Increased incidence of droughts; Increasing mean temperatures
c. Greater variability in seasonal rainfall patterns
d. Sea Level Rise
Some of the largest banana plantations are located along the north-eastern coast which is susceptible to impact from hurricanes; high cost of inputs (e.g. fertilizers, pesticides); high food safety and environmental concerns and regulations; limited extension services; limited access to irrigation; insufficient research and innovation; unstable markets
a. Wind damage to banana trees; land slippage in hilly areas;
b. Decline in production (banana plants take longer to shoot/bear and produce smaller fruits); Increased plant stress and reduced plant health; Greater susceptibility to diseases
c. Decline in banana production
d. Saltwater contamination of low-lying coastal farmlands and salinization of freshwater supply
Existing local research and development capacity; existing institutional networks and partnerships; opportunities for expanding and enhancing extension services; Scope for PPPs; opportunities for the adoption of new and more efficient planting technologies
Coffee a. Increased occurrence of hurricanes;
b. Increased incidence of droughts; Increasing mean temperatures
c. Greater variability in seasonal rainfall patterns
Insecure land tenure patterns; high cost of inputs (e.g. fertilizers, pesticides); high food safety and environmental concerns and regulations; limited extension services; limited access to irrigation; availability of planting material; fragmented production; highly labour intensive; insufficient research and innovation; limited access to financial services and credit
a. Wind damage to coffee trees and berries; greater incidence of land slippage in hilly interior
b. Decline in coffee production; Increased plant stress and reduced plant health; Reduced soil moisture and overall soil quality; Greater susceptibility to pests and diseases; Reduced quality of coffee beans as temperatures increase; bush fires
c. Reduced quality in coffee beans due to plant stress and higher rates of soil erosion
Existing knowledge of genetic pool; research and development capacity; existing institutional networks and partnerships; opportunities for expanding and enhancing extension services; Scope for PPPs; opportunities for the adoption of new and more efficient planting technologies
EXPOSURE(Climate)
SENSITIVITY POTENTIAL IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
KEY SUBSECTORS Traditional Exports
Cattle (Meat/Dairy) a. Increased occurrence of hurricanes and storms;
b. Increased incidence of droughts and increasing temperatures
Competition from meat imports (especially ‘choice cuts’) and milk powder; Quality of breeding stock; High operating costs (especially for commercial feed and medication); unstable market prices; insufficient research and innovation; limited application of technology; shifting consumer demands away from red meat and dairy products; Larceny of livestock; growing food safety concerns and perceived negative health concerns (e.g. ‘mad cow’ disease); limited access to low-cost finance and credit
a. Loss of livestock and damage to farm infrastructure
b. The productivity of livestock, including milk yields, may decline because of higher temperatures and drought-related stress; longer periods of drought can lead to large scale losses of cattle and lower reproduction rates among livestock.
Existing knowledge of genetic pool; local research and development capacity (especially in cattle breeding); existing institutional networks and partnerships; Scope for PPPs; opportunities for the adoption of new and more efficient planting technologies
EXPOSURE(Climate)
SENSITIVITY POTENTIAL IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
KEY SUBSECTORS Livestock
Preliminary Recommendations• Mostly based on information garnered from desk review and
stakeholder consultations. Include inter alia:• Strengthening of climate information services, incl. enhancement of
technical capacities to better collect, monitor and forecast climate information• Investment in water resources development, conservation and
management• improved land husbandry and watershed management practices• continued promotion of applied and demand-driven research and
innovation e.g. enhancing research into climate-resilient crops and animals
• Variety of strategies already exist, need to replicate and scale-up where feasible• Must build on existing local and scientific knowledge
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps
Next Steps• Phase Two
• Future Climate Risk Analyses• Second Round of Consultations• Cost Benefit Analysis
Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps