Update on the labour market
Andrew Damant - Labour Market Economist
Summary of content
• Latest labour market estimates for the UK
• Rise in part-time employment- Record number of people in part-time employment
• Focus on public sector employment- Job losses in the public sector- Public sector employment by region
• Graduates in the labour market- Increase in the number of graduates- Employment rates for graduates and non-graduates- Unemployment rates for graduates- Earnings by degree subject studied
Headlines
Labour market estimates
45kUnemployment
January to March 2012
2.63m
Employment 29.23m 105k
Inactivity 9.25m 35k
(compared to October to December 2011)
(18+) (Claimant count is for April 2012)
Claimant Count 1.59m 13.7k
Level Rate (%)
0.2 8.2
70.5
23.0 0.1
4.9 no change
(16+)
(Level 16+) ( Rate 16 to 64)
(16-64)
0.2
Focus on employment
Thousands
-30
0
30
60
90
120
Total Full-time Part-time
105,000
- 13,000
118,000Change on quarterRise in employment entirely driven by increase in part-time employment
Focus on part-time employment
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Thousands
7.99 million
Part-time employmentHighest number of part-time workers since comparable records began in 1992
Focus on part-time employment
0
4
8
12
16
20
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Per cent18.0 per cent
Part-time would like full-timeHighest percentage since comparable records began in 1992
Part-time employmentHighest number of part-time workers since comparable records began in 1992
Focus on public sector employment
Change on year (thousands) 2010 to 2011
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Total employment Public sector Private sector
- 44,000
- 270,000
226,000
Focus on government sectors
Central government
Local government
Total public corporations
47%
45%
8%
Percentage change on year (2010 to 2011)
-10
-5
0
5
10
Total publicsector
Centralgovernment
Localgovernment
Total publiccorporations
-4.3%
-1.2%
-7.1%-6.1%
Public sector employment by region
0 10 20 30
East of England
South East
London
East Midlands
South West
West Midlands
North West
Yorkshire & The Humber
Scotland
North East
Wales
Northern Ireland
Per cent
Wales25.8 per cent of total employment
South West19.8 per cent of total employment
South West36,000 fall in public sector employment in the last year
WalesDown 8,000 in the last year
Public sector employment by region
-60 -30 0 30 60
Northern Ireland
Wales
Yorkshire & The Humber
North East
East Midlands
Scotland
West Midlands
London
North West
East of England
South East
South West
Change on year (Thousands) 2010 to 2011
1.06m
1.50m
Number of graduates
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Thousands
2001 to 2011Increase of 41 per cent in the number of recent graduates
Recent graduatesThose who have graduated within 6 years of their survey interview, aged 21 to 64, and are not currently enrolled on a course
64%
36% 27%
73%
0
20
40
60
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Per cent
Types of jobs
Lower skill - Jobs generally require competence attained through compulsory education
Skill level of jobsHigher skill – Jobs generally require competence attained through post-compulsory education.
Lower skill
Higher skill
86%
72%
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Per cent
Graduates and non-graduates
GraduatesRecent graduates - higher employment rates up to the start of 2008 recession
Non-graduatesTend to have higher levels of inactivity and unemployment – older demographic
Recent graduates
All graduates
Non-graduates
0
10
20
30
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Per cent
Graduate unemployment
New graduatesHave the highest unemployment rates – just starting to look for work
Recession impactNew graduates affected most – starting to look for work when the economy was weak
0 to 2 years ago
2 to 4 years ago
4 to 6 years ago
All graduates - £15.18
Non graduates - £8.92
£21.29
£12.06
Earnings by degree subject
0 5 10 15 20 25
Arts
Humanities
Medical related subjects
Librarianship and languages
Biological and agricultural sciences
Social studies
Law
Education
Business
Medicine and dentistry
Physical or environmental sciences
Mathematical sciences, engineering, technology and architecture
£ per hour
Summary of key messages
• Some improvement in the labour market in recent months- But this has been driven by increases in part-time employment
• Big job losses in the public sector in the last year- Wales particularly reliant on public sector employment
• Rise in the number of graduates in the last 10 years- Fall in percentage in higher skill jobs- Unemployment rates lower for more experienced graduates – well below UK average – although new graduates are finding it difficult to find work following the recession- Science degrees tend to lead to higher pay – but average pay is higher for all degree subjects than average pay for non-graduates