Dyddiad
Defnyddio data’r cyfrifiad i ddadansoddi trosglwyddo’r GymraegUsing census data to analyse the intergenerational transmission of the Welsh language
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Gweithdy ar y cyfrifiad WISERD/SYGWISERD/ONS Census workshop
Hywel Jones10/12/2013
Y gwaith arweiniodd at y posterThe work which led to the poster
Welsh Poster Cymraeg: • http://bit.ly/15Cr60pfEnglish Poster Saesneg: • http://bit.ly/18BlCFi
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Cynhyrchwyd y poster i’w arddangos yng nghynhadledd flynyddol y BSPS yn Abertawe 2013.
The poster was produced for display in the BSPS annual conference in Swansea 2013.
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
% yn gallu siarad Cymraeg, 1991-2011, yn ôl oed% able to speak Welsh, 2001 and 2011, by age
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Age
Trosglwyddo’r GymraegTransmission of the Welsh language
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
• 2001: S143, C0156, C0584, C0585, C0602, C0790, C0801
• 2011: DC2112, DC2115, DC2601
Tablau Tables
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Trosglwyddo – yn ôl math o deulu
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Transmission – by family type
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
2011
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
2011
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Ffynhonnell: DC2112, 2011; C0156, 2001
Source
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Ffynhonnell: DC2115, 2011; C0584, 2001
Modelu trosglwyddo
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Tebygolrwydd y bydd plentyn yn gallu siarad Cymraeg = logit-1(Cyfrifiad + Math o deulu + Ardal + NS-SEC + Cyfrifiad:Math o deulu + Ardal:Math o deulu
Modelling transmission
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Probability that a child will speak Welsh = logit-1(Census + Family type+ Area + NS-SEC + Census:Family type + Area:Family type)
Ar gollMissing
Cyfraddau trosglwyddo: Lefel adran etholiadolTransmission rates: ward level
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg
Cyplau – 1 oedolyn Cymraeg
Rhiant unigol – 1 oedolyn Cymraeg
Couples – 2 adults speak Welsh
Couples – 1 adult speaks Welsh
Single parent – 1 adult speaks Welsh
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Cydberthyniad cyfraddau trosglwyddo (Spearman) 2011, lefel awdurdodau lleol
(Spearman) correlation of transmission rates 2011, local authority level
% yn gallu siarad Cymraeg, 16 i 64 oed
Cwpl – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg
Rhiant unigol Cymraeg
Cwpl - 1 oedolyn Cymraeg
Couple: 2 WS adult
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10 30 50
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.30
Lone parent: WS
0.65** 0.55*** Couple: 1 WS adult
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.4 0.6 0.8
1030
50
0.59* 0.62***
0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
0.56*** % of pop.16-64 Welsh spk
2011
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Cyplau – 1 oedolyn Cymraeg
2011
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
MSOAsDosbarthiad cyfraddau crai cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg
Distribution of crude rates of couples– 2 adult speaks Welsh
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
MSOAsDosbarthiad cyfraddau cyplau wedi eu llyfnu (+0.5 i rai heb ddata) – 2
oedolyn CymraegDistribution of rates of couples smoothed (+0.5 to those with no data) – 2
adults speak Welsh
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
MSOAsDosbarthiad cyfraddau cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg –
wedi eu llyfnu (empirig Bayes gofodol)Distribution of rates of couples – 2 adult speaks Welsh
– smoothed (spatial empirical Bayes)
Meddalwedd
• R – i gael ffiniau Cymru o rai Cymru a Lloegr geir o wefan y SYG; dadansoddi; siartiau (gyda ggplot2); modelu
• GeoDa – i archwilio’r data, a llyfnu gofodol
• MapInfo – i lunio mapiau terfynol
• ManyEyes – i archwilio’r data, a chyflwyno data manwl
• http://ibm.co/18rIb38• http://ibm.co/1goGJh0• Excel – i’r cyhoedd• Google Fusion
• R – to extract Wales’ boundaries from England and Wales on ONS website; analysis; charts (with ggplot2); modelling
• GeoDa – exploratory analysis and spatial smoothing
• MapInfo – for final map design• ManyEyes - EDA and
presentation of detailed data• http://ibm.co/18rIb38• http://ibm.co/1goGJh0• Excel – public presentation• Google Fusion tables
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013
Software
CyfeiriadauReferences
• GeoDa https://geodacenter.asu.edu/projects/opengeoda• Jones, H. (2007a) Goblygiadau newidiadau ym mhroffil oedran siaradwyr
Cymraeg a’u dosbarthiad gofodol. Gwerddon I: 2 Hydref, 10-37. www.gwerddon.org
• Jones, H. (2009) The intergenerational transmission of the Welsh language: an analysis of the 2001 Census results for Wales. Paper presented to BSPS Annual Conference 2009. http://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20120330035624/http://www.byig-wlb.org.uk/English/publications/Publications/BSPS%202009%20Conference%20The%20intergenerational%20transmission%20of%20Welsh%2020090910.pdf
• Jones, H. (2012) A statistical overview of the Welsh language. Welsh Language Board
• http://www.comisiynyddygymraeg.org/Cymraeg/Cymorth/dataacystadegau/Pages/Hafandataacystadegau.aspx
Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2012