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Transportation and Carbon
Rubenstein School of the Environment and Natural Resources
April 17, 2008
Richard Watts, Research Director, University Transportation Research Center
Vehicles and GHG Emissions
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University of VermontTransportation Research Center
Picture Description / Source
• Founded in Fall 2006 (SAFETEA LU)
• One of 10 National Transportation Centers
• Theme: Sustainable Systems and Advanced Technologies for Northern Communities
• Multi-disciplinary • Transportation research
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Graduate Students• Research Assistantships• Transportation Scholars
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Research Projects on Campus
• 25 Faculty, UTC and Graduate Student Projects
Research Project Categories• Carbon Reduction & Sustainable Systems• Environmental Justice & Communications• Travel Management & Travel Behavior• Infrastructure & Transportation Financing
• May 12, Davis Center 4-5 Open House
• http://www.uvm.edu/~transctr/
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VERMONT CLEAN CITIES COALITION
Strategies to reduce petroleum consumption
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Outline
• Transportation Energy Use• Carbon Footprint• Public Policy Solutions • Vermont Focus
Questions and Comments
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US Petroleum Supply
Source: Greene, Leiby, Patterson, Plotkin and Singh, 2007
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U.S. Oil Use By Sector
Transportation69%
Industrial23%
Residential7%
Electricity1%
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005Data are for 2005
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Current and Potential Car Fleet in India and China
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13
513
640
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
India
China
Millions
Vehicle Fleet Size for Industrialized Vehicle Ownership Level
Size of Vehicle Fleet (1999)
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Two Trends to Watch
1) Tata Motors Ltd. of India will build a five-seat car that it will bring to market for around $2,200 (Autoblog.com, March 4, 2008).
2) Declining interest in car ownership among Japanese young (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 29, 2008).
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Cost of Gasoline and Oil Today?
$ $
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Vermont Gas Prices Rising
Vermont Avg. Annual Gas & Diesel Prices
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Calendar Year
Pri
ce P
er G
allo
n
Gas Diesel
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Vermont Gas Sales Flat
Transportation Fuel Sales in Vermont
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Calendar Year
Mill
ions
of G
allo
ns
GasDieselBiodiesel
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Total Annual Spending on Gas and Diesel
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Calendar Year
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs S
pent
Total Spent
Gas Sales Flat – Costs Sharply Higher
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Cost of Vehicle Ownership
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Total $12,465 $16,963 $9,246 $3,219 $7,717
Table-10 Vermont’s Transportation Revenue Shortfall Analysis 2006-2025
Years Needs Revenues Shortfall(Inflation) 2% 5% 2% 5%
($ Millions)
2006 - 2010 $2,670 $2,835 $2,101 $569 $7342011 - 2015 $2,948 $3,618 $2,127 $821 $1,4912016 - 2020 $3,254 $4,617 $2,371 $883 $2,2462021 - 2025 $3,593 $5,893 $2,647 $946 $3,246
Transportation Funding Shortfall
Source: VTrans LRTBP Working Paper 3
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Does Price Make A Difference?
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Automobile Dominance in Vermont
2000 Journey to Work Mode Split - Vermont
Drove alone75.5%
Worked at home5.7%
Walked5.7%
Public Trans0.7%
Carpooled12.0%
Other0.4%
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Vermonters Driving More
Source: 2006 VLTP
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Driving Alone Increases
Source: 2006 VLTP
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Figure credit: Davies, J. and C. Facanha.
US GHG Emissions by Sector
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Transportation GHG Emissions Increasing
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GHG Emissions by Vehicle Type
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Average Gasoline Consumption for New Vehicles, United States, 1972-2006 (miles per gallon)
10
15
20
25
30
35
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
CarsLight TrucksAverage
Source: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm
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GHG Emissions in Vermont
Source: DPS Utility Facts, 2006, updated August 2007
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Vermont Towns & Vehicle GHG Emissions
Source: VPIRG from US Census 2000 Journey to Work Data
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Vermont Is Aging
Source: Art Woolf: Vermont aging slides PPT, Jan 2007
Old Vermont
6080
100120140160180200220240
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Over 65
Total Population
6 to 18
20 - 65
Source: Art Woolf, PPT Jan. 2007
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Obesity Epidemic and VMT
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Jan. 03
- Unlimited Access Agreement Begins
Aug. 04
-Information Packets Circulated on Campus and in Dorms
-Letters Sent Home to First-Year Students
Aug. 05
-Information Advertised in Orientation Packets
Sep. 05
-Unlimited Access Advertisement in Campus Directory
Oct. 05
-Postcard with Info Sent to Faculty/ Staff Through CATMA
UVM Unlimited Access Bus Ridership
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UVM Seniors Use Transit LessPercentage of Undergraduate Riders by
Status (Fall 2005)Senior, 358,
12%
Junior, 375, 13%
Sophomore, 681, 24%
Freshmen, 1459, 51%
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A Public Policy Solution Framework
• Increase Vehicle EfficiencyCAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.)
• Low Carbon FuelsCalifornia, Europe
• Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT)Public transit, TOD, TDM,
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Driving Behavior Increases Efficiency
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Can Consumer Awareness Influence Driving Behavior?
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Electric Cars
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Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
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37walkscore.com
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A Public Policy Solution Framework
• Increase Vehicle EfficiencyCAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.)
• Low Carbon FuelsCalifornia, Europe
• Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT)Public transit, TOD, TDM,
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Governor’s Commission on Climate Change
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Vermont Government Approach
“The miles traveled aren’t the problem; the way we traverse them is. As gas prices climb, many are taking a second look at fuel efficient cars and trucks and alternatives to single occupancy trips. That’s why I propose Go Vermont, a three-pronged approach that provides cost-effective transportation alternatives, promotes the development and availability of cleaner burning biofuels and pushes for increased vehicle emissions standards.”
-- Gov. Douglas State of the State, Jan 10 2008
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Vermont Transportation Strategies
Policies to reduce emissions from transportation fall into three categories:
• 1. improving vehicle fuel efficiency,• 2. reducing the carbon intensity of fuels, and• 3. reducing activity rates, either absolutely or
relative to the baseline.
-- Vermont Climate Change Plan, Dec. 2007
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Vermont Climate Action Plan Policies
4343
Reduce CO2
Reduce CO2/VMT (A1) Reduce VMT (A2)
Passenger Vehicles (A11) Freight (A12) Land Use (A21) Transportation Alternatives(A22)
Fiscal Tools & Incentives(A23)
Low GHG Tailpipe Standards (A111)
Feebates (A112)
Tax Incentives for Efficient Vehicles (A113)
Carbon Tax (A114)
Procurement of Low GHG/Alt Fuel Vehicles (A115)
Biofuel Standards (A116)
Vehicle Scrappage (A117)
Driver Training (A118)
Anti-Idling By-Laws (A119)
Speed Reduction Programs (A1110)
Traffic Signal Improvements/ITS/Traffic flow (A1111)
Technology & Maintenance(A1112)
Hybrid and ElectricVehicles (A1113)
Hydrogen & Fuel CellVehicles (A1114)
Truck StopElectrification (A121)
Vessel Electrification (A122)
Retrofits and CleanFuels for HD Trucks
(A123)
Transit Bus Retrofits(A124)
Intermodal FreightInitiatives (A125)
Locomotive Technologies(Hybrids, Fuel Cells)
(A126)
Locomotive IdleReduction Technologies
(A127)
Transit OrientedDevelopment (A211)
Brownfield Development(A212)
Pedestrian-OrientedDesign (A213)
Smart School Siting (A214)
Permitting & Zoning Reform (A215)
Transit Service Improvements (A221)
Light Rail Transit (A222)
Bus Rapid Transit (A223)
Bike InfrastructureDevelopment (A224)
Car Pooling Organizations (A225)
Targeted InfrastructureFunding (A231)
Road/CongestionPricing (A232)
Commuter Incentives(A233)
Pay-As-You-DriveInsurance (A234)
Green Mortgages(A235)
Fuel Tax (A236)
Cap & Trade forAutomakers/Regions
(A237)
Renewable PortfolioStandard for Fuel Mixes
(A238)
Smart Growth Programs (A216)
Open Space Programs (A217)
Municipal Parking Programs (A239)