National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
WEEKLY
MARKET
OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK: AN OVERVIEW
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS
o EUROSTOXX 50
o EUR/USD
o CHF/USD
o STANDARD & POOR’S 500
o NZD/USD
o CAD/USD
o STRAITS TIMES INDEX
o SGD/USD
o GBP/USD
o NIKKEI 225
o USD/JPY
o AUD/USD
GLOBAL ECONOMICS
o JAPAN IS BACK IN THE DEFLATIONARY ZONE o SINGAPORE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
o U.S. OIL TUMBLED AFTER BUILD IN GASOLINE INVENTORIES
o GERMAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BOOST
o
SINGAPORE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
After months of experiencing an upward
trend, the bullish trend turned bearish on
11 September 2015 after breaking
support level at 3666.93.
Downward trend persist, as next support
level at 3483.63 broke.
Sideway trend is observed but continues
to dip after breaking the next support
level at 3155.84.
Next resistance level at 3205.21 and
3282.22. Intermediate support at
3001.82.
Bearish trend is likely to continue into
October as Euro Stoxx 50 dips further.
Toh Kai Yun: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: EUROSTOXX 50
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
The EURUSD pair initially tried to rally
on Thursday, but found a bit of resistance
near the 1.13 level, ended up forming a
shooting star. It now appears that this
market isn’t ready to do anything for any
real length of time.
The 1.13 level looks to be one that is
difficult to overcome, but if it does, we
can expect the next resistance to be in the
region of 1.145 level which can be good
call for quick traders. At the same time, I
believe the 1.11 level below should be
massively supportive.
In other words, I think we are simply
going to continue to consolidate and
bounce around in this very small area.
Yeo Jian Hui: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: EUR/USD
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
The CHFUSD pair is currently on a
bearish trend, falling to 1.0208 from
1.048. Although there is a short rally on
Thursday, the pair quickly reversed back
to bearish momentum. As we can see
from the chart, each time the pair attempt
to test a new resistance with small rise, a
stronger downward pull follows.
The shape of the candle certainly doesn’t
look appealing and is so negative
looking. Adding to the fact that there
isn’t any support below, the existing
bearish trend for this currency pair may
well continue.
Yeo Jian Hui: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: CHF/USD
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
The S&P 500 Index (i.e. US market) is
stuck in a ‘nervous zone’ as the Federal
Reserve held back on raising interest
rates and investors wait for further policy
decisions
Slowdown in China and in many
emerging markets is also causing a
bearish and panicked sentiment by
investors, as seen by a high degree of
volatility in the market, and strong
volumes in either direction
In the one-month horizon, there appears
to be a pennant pattern forming, with a
possible triple bounce off the light-blue
support line drawn
Moving forward, investors should
proceed with caution as the market
continues to be nervous, and the ‘great
bull run’ is called into question
Nicholas Tan: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: STANDARD & POOR’S 500
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: NZD/USD
Trading earlier in the week resulted in a bearish channel shown by the two black channel lines. Prices respected this channel fairly well. However, multiple bullish divergences were formed throughout this downward movement.
Prices eventually had a sharp breakout from this bearish channel after poking out slightly and consolidating near the upper channel line.
New momentum high was formed on the
MACD corresponding to the red line on the price chart. This foreshadowed future upward momentum.
As shown in the chart, prices later
continued a bullish uptrend after finding some resistance at the Ichimoku cloud.
Prices broke to a new high after a retest
of the previous level of significance at 0.63662
Overall outlook for NZD/USD is bullish
for the next week. Lucas Lee: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: CAD/USD
Trading earlier this week was
characterized by a inconsistent bullish uptrend, with no clear channels or trend lines.
Prices broken up and down Ichimoku clouds of support and resistance without much conviction in overall trend direction.
Over the last few days of trading, prices consolidated very narrowly in a wedge formation.
Overall outlook for CAD/USD is neutral for the next week. However, further breakout directions from the wedge could give hints about direction. Also, higher levels of volatility are to be expected given the long period of consolidation in the chart.
Lucas Lee: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
On July 31st, the STI broke a strong
support zone of 3253-3266 with huge
breakaway gap. With the worldwide
financial turmoil caused by China’s huge
market sell-off and Greek debt crisis the
STI tumbled too, finding a near-term
support around 2810.
A “dead cat bounce” formed in late
August as bottom pickers entered, but
was unable to sustain the rally as the sell-
off continued.
In the weeks of September, price action
is trading narrowly sideways, between
2810 to 2925 points. Huge indecision can
be found, as there were wide intraday
swings and long dojis, particularly this
week as it reaches to test the support.
Selling pressure is still highly present
Tan Zhi Rong: Research Analyst (Global Macro
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: STRAITS TIMES INDEX
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: SGD/USD
SGD/USD has recently broken out of a
downtrend on 24/09/15 at 16:30 by
breaking through its resistance line.
Signs of the reversal are showing as
lower highs are no longer being formed
and the newly established support line
has been tested successfully twice.
Resistance area around 0.7036 and
support area around 0.7005 are key
critical prices to note in monitoring the
start of the next trend.
Saw Le Yong: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
At 22th September, 02:30, the GBP/USD
started the day off with a huge sell-off
which lasted for till 24th.
Prices rested and the steady climb out of
the range seemed to have staged a rally
on 24th , in a frantic hour, prices have
sharply dropped and fell signally the
conviction from bulls are not strong
enough.
On 25th, price action broke near term
support and a support-resistance
phenomenon appeared at 1.52004.
Market psychology signals the downside,
as rallies are often engulfed by a huge
down marubozu.
Price expected to trade within range as
MACD upward trend shows that large-
scale selling has dissipated.
Tan Zhi Rong: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: GBP/USD
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
The Nikkei 225 Index has been in
consolidation for the past month, gains for
the past year have been returned back.
This week’s market closed at 17,880.51 with
a bullish hammer where it shows signs of
trend reversal and might fill up the previous
gap.
Resistance level is currently near
psychological level of 19,000.
Support level is currently at around 17,550
where it has been tested by the market
several times. If it goes below 17,550
markets downtrend might persist.
Timmy Lim: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: NIKKEI 225
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
USD/JPY is currently on a bullish green
trend channel. Signs of bullish momentum
are showing as higher lows are being formed
along it.
Resistance area around 120.240 and 120.540
are key critical prices to note in monitoring if
these areas experience a role reversal,
becoming support areas instead when prices
were to touch these regions.
Jethro Hee: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: USD/JPY
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
TECHNICAL INSIGHTS: AUD/USD
AUDUSD has broken out of its red bearish
channel and is now showing signs of
temporary bullish momentum around the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Risk of downside is still high and can be
confirmed by a break below the major
psychological support level of 0.70000.
On the other hand, a break above 0.70400
resistance level might mean that further
upside momentum is likely.
Khong Zhan Qing: Research Analyst (Global
Macro)
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
GLOBAL ECONOMICS: JAPAN IS BACK IN THE DEFLATIONARY ZONE
Japan’s core inflation (which includes oil and
excludes volatile fresh foods) falls by 0.1% in
August 2015 YoY due to weak oil prices.
Current rates are far away from their target of 2%
despite efforts by the BoJ in quantitative easing.
Increased efforts of QE might be seen to boost
domestic markets in order to achieve 2%
inflation target.
Timmy Lim: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
In Singapore, industrial production measures the
manufacturing output of the economy.
The latest report reveals that industrial
production in Singapore dropped by 7.0 percent
year-on-year in August of 2015, below the -5.3%
forecast of economists.
Being an economy heavily reliant on the external
environment, Singapore has been hit by the
slowing growth in China and uncertainty caused
by the potential hike in USA interest rates.
A decrease in manufacturing, which makes up
1/5 of the Singaporean economy, increases the
likelihood of a technical recession and a change
in exchange rate.
Saw Le Yong: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
GLOBAL ECONOMICS: SINGAPORE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
U.S. crude oil for delivery in November
pushed higher initially after the weekly U.S.
Energy Information Administration data showed
that crude oil inventories fell by 1.93 million
barrels last week while market analysts expected
crude-stock to drop only 0.54 million barrels.
However, gasoline stocks rose 1.4 million barrels
while analysts expected of a 819,000-barrel gain.
Refinery crude runs fell 310,000 barrels per day
and refinery utilization rates fell 2.2 percentage
to 90 percentage of capacity. These caused the
great drop in oil price and made it close down
4.06 percent. The increase in gasoline inventories
can outweigh the decrease in crude inventories
because it came to the end of summer driving
season and there would be less demand to refine
the crude oil into gasoline. Besides that, the fall
in refinery crude run given the coming
maintenance season also put downward pressure
on oil prices since the loss of refining capacity
will send more crude oil into inventory.
Gan Jingzhi: Research Analyst (Global Macro)
Oil price initially
gained after fall in US
crude oil inventories
Oil price tumbled after
build in gasoline
inventories and falling
refinery runs
GLOBAL ECONOMICS: U.S. OIL TUMBLED AFTER BUILD IN GASOLINE INVENTORIES
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
GLOBAL ECONOMICS: GERMAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BOOST
The IFO Business Climate Index rose to 108.5
from 108.4 last month, surpassing market
expectations about the German industry and
trade. The rise comes as a surprise and
indicates Germany’s effort to take a slowing
Chinese economy in its stride.
Even though companies “expressed greater
optimism about future business developments,”
it needs to be mentioned that the index has not
taken into account the Volkswagen emission
scandal this past week. With one of Germany’s
leading brands and largest employers
embroiled in a scandal, the business sentiment
is expected to take a hit in the following month.
Mudit Kedia: Research Analyst (Global
Macro)
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
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WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
Toh Kai Yun Yeo Jian Hui Nicholas Tan Wei Hong Lucas Lee Zong Xing Tan Zhi Rong Saw Le Yong
Lim Kai Yan, Timmy Jethro Hee Ting Wei Khong Zhan Qing Gan Jingzhi Mudit Kedia
RESEARCH ANALYSTS
National University of Singapore | Mochtar Riady Building, BIZ1 2-7, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245 www.nusinvest.com | www.facebook.com/NUSInvest | [email protected]
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WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
21st Sep – 25th Sep 2015
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