© Crown Copyright 2016 1
Wide Area Persistent Messaging
Technical Decision Support Wargame
Michael Lee
Connections UK 7th September 2016
© Crown Copyright 2016 2
Defence has identified the need for a Wide Area Persistent Messaging
(WAPM) capability.
Niteworks Task: Identify and visualise current and future technology solutions
pertinent to WAPM, and make recommendations regarding a future WAPM
capability, giving consideration to;
Audiences
Environments
Channels
Platforms
Early conclusion – Solution set of complementary technologies
WAPM Project
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Identify the
technology
Analysis of sets
Group into sets
Map Solution
Space
Gather Candidates
Generate Solution
Sets
Contextualised
Vignettes
MCDA
Industry
Pro
jec
t D
eve
lop
me
nt
WAPM Project – Technical model
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Identify the
technology
Analysis of sets
Group into sets
Map Solution
Space
Gather Candidates
Generate Solution
Sets
Contextualised
Vignettes
MCDA
Industry
Pro
jec
t D
eve
lop
me
nt
WARGAME
WAPM Project – Technical model
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Primary
The generation of coherent and complementary solution sets to be taken
forwards to MCDA
Secondary
Visualisation of capabilities provided by different combinations of technology
options and platforms
Inform the generation of criteria to be used in MCDA
Wargame Objectives
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Mapping MappingMapping
Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3
Green
Cell
Red CellMCDA
Scribe
ScribeScribeScribe
Mapping
Game
productSlid
es
Room Layout
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Technology
Equipment capable of sending a message
e.g. Radio in a Box
Platform
A host onto which the technology can be mounted, usually a military vehicle
e.g. High Altitude UAV
Capability
A technology mounted on a platform
Channel
The method by which a target audience receives a message
i.e. Radio, TV, Audio, Hardcopy, Objects, Billboard, Projection, Internet
and Cellular
Lexicon
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Create Capability Sets
Scenario 1
Refine Sets
Scenario 2
Refine Sets
Scenario 3
Wargame Structure
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Create Capability Sets
Scenario 1
Refine Sets
Scenario 2
Refine Sets
Scenario 3
Wargame Structure
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
ORBAT platforms (Scenario specific)
Creating Capabilities
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Creating Sets
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Creating Sets
Blue Cell 1
choose one
card from each
category
Blue
Cell 1
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Creating Sets
Blue Cell 1
choose one
card from each
category
Blue
Cell 1
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Creating Sets
Blue Cell 2
choose one
card from those
remaining in
each category
Blue
Cell 1
Blue
Cell 2
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Generate
Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Network
Creating Sets
Blue
Cell 1
Blue
Cell 2
Blue Cell 2
choose one
card from those
remaining in
each category
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Creating Sets
Blue Cell 3
choose one
card from those
remaining in
each category
Blue
Cell 1
Blue
Cell 2
Blue
Cell 3
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Creating Sets
Blue Cell 3
choose one
card from those
remaining in
each category
Blue
Cell 1
Blue
Cell 2
Blue
Cell 3
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Suggestions:
Information on card
Potential Capabilities
Pre-conceived ideas
Without scenario details – flexible solutions
Selection Criteria
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Create Capability Sets
Scenario 1
Refine Sets
Scenario 2
Refine Sets
Scenario 3
Wargame Structure
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Briefing Pack
Overview
OV1a
Human terrain analysis
Scenario Objectives
Information Environment
Existing Infrastructure
Scenario Specific Rules – Including ORBAT platforms available
Mapping including human terrain density overlays
Scenario Products
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DETER
Go
v. F
orc
es
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
POSITIVENEGATIVE Behaviour
HARASSLeaders
Conscript
Soldiers
Hard
Line
Soldiers
Rebels
Civilians
Civilians
Rebels
Numbers represent score required to
achieve desired outcome against each
target audience
INFORM
1
1
3 1
REASSURE
1
Scenario Products - Objectives
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Breakdown
• Common language between all communities
• Higher literacy rates amongst Hard Line Government forces, although all
demographics have a literacy rate of at least 50%.
• TV Ownership focused around coastal areas.
• Cellular technology is commonplace amongst Government forces. The better paid
Hard Line Soldiers and Leaders mostly have personal phones, where as the
Conscripted Soldiers will often share cellular devices which they use to communicate
with their families.
70%
26%
2%
76%
28%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Literacy Internet users Wired Broadband Cellular Subscriptions TV Ownership Radio Ownership
INTERVENTION
Scenario Products - Environment
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Action – Blue Cells
Reaction – Red/Green Cells
Critique – Blue Cells
Constructive critique between cells
‘Frictions’ - challenge assumptions
Outcomes – Excon
Analytical determinations
Key factors arising – Blue Cells
Open discussion
Gameplay
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For each message Blue Cell Players Specify:
Target audience (TA)
Capability (technology plus platform) used to transmit message
% Population reached
Message Effectiveness:
Effect on TA = (%Pop reached) x (Platform Persistence) x (Receptivity)
(%Pop reached) is determined from the mapping
(Platform Persistence) is determined by the choice of platform
(Receptivity) is determined by the scenario, channel and specified TA
Effects through different channels are cumulative, so complementary
messaging through different channels will result in a greater effect on the TA.
Gameplay
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Create Capability Sets
Scenario 1
Refine Sets
Scenario 2
Refine Sets
Scenario 3
Wargame Structure
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Blue
Cell 3
Blue
Cell 2
Blue
Cell 1
Refine Sets
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Blue
Cell 3
Blue
Cell 2
Blue
Cell 1
Refine Sets
Blue Cell 1 allowed to swap
out one card each with Blue
Cell 2, Blue Cell 3 and
reserve card deck
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Blue
Cell 3
Blue
Cell 2
Blue
Cell 1
Refine Sets
Blue Cell 2 allowed to swap
out one card each with Blue
Cell 3 and reserve card deck
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Platform Major
Platform Minor
Audio/Visual
Broadcast
Generate
Network
Blue
Cell 3
Blue
Cell 2
Blue
Cell 1
Refine Sets
Blue Cell 3 allowed to swap
out one card with reserve
card pile
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Refine Sets
Why refine sets process?
Objective. The generation of coherent and complementary solution sets to
be taken forwards to MCDA
Convergence. If all players had access to all capabilities convergence
would probably occur. We want you to think about generating a range of
innovative complementary capability sets.
‘Pass the parcel’ If different cells picked first in different rounds, ‘favoured’
capabilities would be passed around the groups. This wouldn’t be a
refinement process.
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Projection
mapping
EUD
purchase
and
distribute
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
Air
Platform
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Platform
Technology
Capability
Leaflet
print and
distribute
Platform
Capability
Technology
Capability
Results – Blue Cell 1
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Projection
mapping
EUD
purchase
and
distribute
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Platform
Technology
Capability
Leaflet
print and
distribute
Platform
Capability
Technology
Capability
Projection
mapping
Air leaflet
bomb
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Leaflet
print and
distribute
Air
Platform
Air
Platform
Results – Blue Cell 1&2
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Projection
mapping
EUD
purchase
and
distribute
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Platform
Technology
Capability
Leaflet
print and
distribute
Platform
Capability
Technology
Capability
Projection
mapping
Air leaflet
bomb
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Leaflet
print and
distribute
EUD
purchase
and
distribute
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Leaflet
print and
distribute
Air
Platform
Air
Platform
Air
Platform
Results – Blue Cell 1,2&3
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Platform
Technology
Core
Capability
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Leaflet
print and
distribute
Air
Platform
Air
Platform
Consolidated Core
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Projection
mapping
EUD
purchase
and
distribute
Air leaflet
bomb
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Maritime
Platforms
ORBAT
Air
Platforms
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Broadcast
and network
ORBAT
Land
Platforms
Public
address
Platform
Technology
Core
CapabilityLeaflet
print and
distribute
Platform
Additional
Capability
Technology
Additional
Capability
Air
Platform
Air
Platform
Consolidated Complete
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Visualisation
Problem
Solutions
Stakeholder management
Engaged audience
Test incorrect assumptions
Evidence based decision making
Benefits
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Lessons
All models are wrong, some are useful
No ‘black box’
Make it as simple as possible
If it doesn’t contribute to the objectives, it doesn’t make it into the game