PAUL REIG, TOM PARRIS, AND FRANCIS GASSERT February 20, 2013
AQUEDUCT DATA & METHODOLOGY
AGENDA
Introduction
Modeling Water Supply and Demand β Tom Parris
Aqueduct Indicators β Paul Reig
Aggregation and scoring β Francis Gassert
Q&A
Photo: NOAA
RISKS TO: GOVERNMENTSCOMPANIES INVESTORS
DETAILED, COMPARABLE, GLOBAL WATER RISK INFORMATION
Photo: NASA
UNDERSTANDING RISK: AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
WHERE WE PILOT TESTED: KEY BASINS
HOW WE EVOLVED: GLOBAL MAPPING
BUILDING ON SCIENCE: EXPERT REVIEWERS
CDP Water Disclosure Project
Ceres
Columbia University
Deloitte Consulting LLP
Global Adaptation Institute
Global Water Strategies
Nanjing University
National Geographic
Pacific Institute
The Nature Conservancy
The World Bank
US Environmental Protection Agency
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor
University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
University of Virginia
Water Footprint Network
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Yale University
DATA: SELECTION CRITERIA
Step 1: Literature review
Step 2: Public domain & global coverage
Step 3: Comparative analysis to evaluate: granularity, time coverage source
Step 4: Selection of data source
MODELING WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Tom Parris | Vice President | ISciences
UNDERSTANDING RISK: AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
OVERVIEW
Catchments
Demand: Withdrawals & consumptive use
Source: Runoff
Flow accumulation
Supply: Total and available blue water
Flow accumulator
Total blue water (Bt)
Available blue water (Ba)
Hydrologically connected catchments
Runoff Withdrawals & consumptive use
MODELING: WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Catchments
Global Drainage Basin Database (GDBD; n=73074)
Aggregated to <100,000 km2 target
Mean area = 8804 km2 (n=14998)
CATCHMENTS
1. Source data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 2010
2. Spatially disaggregate by sector Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated Areas
(2000) Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the World
(2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010) Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)
3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio
4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
WATER DEMAND: BASELINE 2010
Withdrawal Disaggregation Methodology WATER DEMAND: INPUT DATA
Sector Variable Source
All sectors Water withdrawals FAO Aquastat Pacific Institute
GDP World Bank
Population World Bank Average annual precipitation FAO Aquastat Total renewable water supply FAO Aquastat
Sectoral water withdrawal ratio Calculated
Agricultural Irrigated area FAOSTAT
FAO Aquastat Freydank & Siebert 2008
Agricultural land area World Bank
Industrial CO2 emissions World Bank Electricity, total net generation Energy Information Administration
Coal production Energy Information Administration Refinery Processing Gain Energy Information Administration
Domestic Urban population World Bank
Start with reported national withdrawals (FAO Aquastat) by sector (domestic, industrial, agricultural) (black points)
Project using two random and two fixed effects regression models (light points)
Withdrawals reported 2008-2010 were not modeled (vertical dashed line)
Average four models to estimate national withdrawals for 2010 (dark red points)
Regressions explained 94-99% of the total variation.
WATER DEMAND: BASELINE TO 2010
Withdrawal Disaggregation Methodology
1. Input data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 2010
2. Spatially disaggregate by sector Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated
Areas (2000) Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the
World (2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010) Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)
3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio
4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
WATER DEMAND: DISAGGREGATION
Global Map of Irrigation Area
WATER DEMAND: AGRICULTURE
Nighttime Lights (2010)
WATER DEMAND: INDUSTRY
Gridded Population of the World
(2010)
Nighttime Lights (2010)
WATER DEMAND: DOMESTIC
Total withdrawals (Ut) are the sum of agricultural, domestic, and industrial withdrawals
ππ‘ = ππππ + ππππ + ππππ
WATER DEMAND: TOTAL WITHDRAWALS
1. Input data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 2010
2. Spatially disaggregate by sector Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated Areas
(2000) Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the World
(2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010) Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)
3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio
4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
WATER DEMAND: CONSUMPTIVE USE
Consumptive use (Ct) is the sum of sectoral use times the sectoral consumptive use ratio (cr) (Shiklomanov and Rodda 2003)
πΆπ‘ = ππππ Γ πππππ + ππππ Γ πππππ + ππππ Γ πππππ
WATER DEMAND: CONSUMPTIVE USE
evaluated 4 datasets (UNH/GRDC, CFSR, MERRA-Land, GLDAS-2)
GLDAS-2, 1Β°, NOAH monthly (summed to annual)
1948-2008 (used 1950-2008)
directly resampled to 1km without interpolation
WATER SOURCE: RUNOFF
Runoff Precipitation minus
evapotranspiration, loss to groundwater, and increase in soil moisture.
Total Blue Water (Bt) Accumulated runoff Equivalent to naturalized flow.
MODELING: FLOW ACCUMULATION runoffa
runoffb Bta
Btb
Runoff Precipitation minus evaporation,
transpiration, deep groundwater recharge, and change in soil moisture
Total Blue Water Accumulated runoff Equivalent to naturalized flow
Available Blue Water (Ba) Upstream runoff minus consumptive
use, plus runoff Loosely equivalent to surface water
and shallow groundwater
MODELING: FLOW ACCUMULATION runoffa
runoffb Baa
Bab
consumptive useb
consumptive usea
Total blue water (Bt) is the sum of naturalized (uninhibited) runoff
WATER SUPPLY: TOTAL BLUE WATER
Available blue water (Ba) is the sum of upstream runoff minus consumptive use
WATER SUPPLY: AVAILABLE BLUE WATER
AQUEDUCTβS WATER RISK INDICATORS
Paul Reig | Aqueduct Project | WRI
UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
ππππππππ π°ππ°ππ° ππ°π°πππ =πππππ π€πππ€π π€π€ππ€π€πππ€πππ€ (2010)
ππ€ππ ππππ€πππππ€ ππππ€ π€πππ€π (1950 β 2008)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
πππ°ππ°ππππππ π―ππ°πππ―ππππ°π― =πππππ€πππ€ π€π€ππ€πππ€ππ ππ πππππ ππππ€ π€πππ€π (1950 β 2008)
ππ€ππ πππππ ππππ€ π€πππ€π (1950 β 2008)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
ππππππππ π―ππ°πππ―ππππ°π― =πππππ€πππ€ π€π€ππ€πππ€ππ πππππππ€ππ πππππ ππππ€ π€πππ€π (1950 β 2008)
ππ€ππ πππππ€ππ πππππ ππππ€ π€πππ€π (1950 β 2008)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
ππππ°π°πππ ππ°ππ°ππ¬π =πππ€πππ€ππ π€πππππ π€ ππππππ€ππ
ππ€ππ πππππ ππππ€ π€πππ€π (1950 β 2008)
Data: Lehner et al. GRanD
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
ππππ°π°πππ ππ°ππ°ππ©π°ππ© ππππ© = πππππ ππππ€ π€πππ€π ππππ πππππ€πππ€π€ ππππ€π€ 1950 β 2008
ππ€ππ πππππ ππππ€ π€πππ€π 1950 β 2008
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
Data: IUCN, UNEP
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
πππ°ππ°π ππππ° π°ππ°ππ =πππ€πππ€ππ πππππππ€πππππ€ππ€ ππ€π€ (2010)
ππ€ππ ππππ€πππππ€ ππππ€ π€πππ€π (1950 β 2008)
UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
Indicator Data Source Scale
Flood occurrence Brakenridge, Dartmouth Flood Observatory Polygons
Drought severity Sheffield and Wood 1 degree raster
Groundwater stress Gleeson et al. Major aquifers
Media coverage Google Country
Access to water WHO, UNICEF Country
Threatened amphibians IUCN Red List Polygons
OTHER INDICATORS
AQUEDUCTβS WATER RISK FRAMEWORK
Francis Gassert | Aqueduct Project | WRI
UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
ENABLING COMPARABILITY : THRESHOLDS
Thresholds: 1. Create categories for communication 2. Enable scoring and aggregation
Thresholds determined using: existing literature governmental or intergovernmental guidelines range and distribution of indicator values expert judgment
NORMALIZING AND SCORING
Values mapped over thresholds using continuous functions
0.1 1
0.2
2
0.4
3
0.8
4
Raw value (r) :
Score :
0
5
πBWS π = min(5, max(0,ln π β ln π1
ln πππ€π€ + 1 ))
PUTTING IT TOGETHER : AGGREGATION
PUTTING IT TOGETHER : AGGREGATION
Weighted average For each region (j):
Re-normalize to display full range of relative values Final displayed βoverall water riskβ (sj):
π€π = 5ππ β min(π)
max π β min(π)
ππ =βπ₯πππ€πβπ€π
πππ π€ π€π {πππ π€ππ€π€ππππππ€ π€π€π€ππ€ π₯ππ β ππππ}
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
WRI Default
Agriculture
Food & Beverage
Chemicals
Electric power
Semi-conductor
Oil & Gas
Mining
Construction Materials
Textile
UNIQUE USERS : TAILORED WEIGHTING
Quantity Quality Regulatory and reputational
BALANCING INDICATORS : SETTING WEIGHTS
Exposure to risk variesβ users can set own weights
Default weights set by: WRI water expert panel Corporate disclosure documentation Industry leader review
PUBLICATIONS
Aqueduct Global Maps 2.0:
http://www.wri.org/publication/aqueduct-metadata-global
Aqueduct Water Risk Framework:
http://www.wri.org/publication/aqueduct-water-risk-framework
Aqueduct Data and Methodology: in prep
Thank you for joining!
CONTACT US
Paul Reig | [email protected] Francis Gassert | [email protected]
WRI.org/Aqueduct