国际林业碳汇市场研究

碳汇交易部

修勤绪

2010.4.29

目录

• 1、碳汇交易的背景

• 2、碳汇项目类型

• 3、国际碳汇项目标准

• 4、案例分析-CCX

• 5、国际碳交易市场趋势

• 6、我国林业碳汇潜能

1、碳汇交易的背景

• 1.1 全球气候变暖

• 1.2 经济学基础

1.1 全球气候变暖

• IPCC第四次报告指出：气候系统变暖是毋庸置疑的，大部分已观测到的全球平均温度的升高很可能是由于观测到的人为温室气体浓度增加所导致。

• 同时指出，与林业相关的减缓活动能够以低成本的汇大幅度减少源排放并增加碳清除，而且这类减缓活动能够与适应措施和可持续发展一并发挥协同作用。

1.2 经济学基础

• 环境产品的外部性问题

• 对高排放企业/国家实施排放总量控制，并促使“cap - trade”（总量控制-限额交易）

• 允许通过林业碳汇项目进行补偿

2、碳汇项目类型

京都市场 非京都市场

造林再造林项目（R&A） 造林再造林项目（R&A）

减少林地退化和采伐产生的温室气体排放项目（REDD）

减少林地退化和采伐产生的温室气体排放项目（REDD）

REDD+（包括R&A和SFM） 可持续森林经营项目（SFM）/优化的森林经营项目（IFM）

农地经营（ALM）

长期存在的木质产品（LLWP）

3、国际碳汇标准

基础标准 可签发碳信用额的标准 附加标准

CDM Gold Standard

ISO 14064-1 VCS CCB

ISO 14064-2 CCX offset program Social Carbon Standard

ISO 14064-3 CAR

ISO14065 Plan vivo Standard-

Scotland

Carbon fix Standard

VER+

ISO 14064/14065

• ISO 14064 -1:《温室气体-第一部分：组织层次上

对温室气体排放和清除的量化和报告的规范及指南》

• ISO 14064-2:《温室气体-第二部分：在项目层面增加碳汇的计量、监测和报告指南》

• ISO 14064-3:2006 《温室气体-第三部分：有关温室气体评估报告确认和验证指南》

• ISO 14065:2007 《温室气体–对认可机构或其他评定机构的要求》

VCS

• 管理机构：VCS Association

• 成立目的： the most popular standard across the breadth of the

international voluntary market, offering project developers carbon

credibility, ease of use and medium-range credit prices.

• 项目类型：Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation (ARR)，Agricultural Land Management (ALM)，Improved Forest

Management (IFM)，Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and

Degradation (REDD)

• 签发产品：VCUs

• 优点：meets a high standard in carbon verification and successfully

addresses the issues of real and permanent carbon sequestration.

• 缺点：they are pure carbon standards providing robust verification

only and don‟t directly address a project‟s wider impacts.

CCX offset program

• 管理机构： Chicago Climate Exchange （CCX）

• 成立目的： advance a “currently viable” mitigation action identified

in IPCC

• 项目类型：A&R and Widely-Spaced Tree Planting Offset

Project,SMF，LLWP

• 签发产品：CFI（carbon financial instrument）contracts

• 优点：The CCX has been a valuable pioneer in the development of

emissions abatement and carbon offsetting in North America and

beyond.

• 缺点： its offset requirements, in the areas of permanence and

additionality especially, don‟t meet the quality benchmarks

established by the new generation of standards outlined above.

CAR

• 管理机构：State of California

• 成立目的： has emerged as the quality carbon offset standard in

North America with premium prices to match.

• 项目类型：Avoided Conversion of Forest Land to Other Uses, IMF,

Reforestation of reviously-cleared land within the United States

• 签发产品：CRT

• 优点：to account for wider environmental impacts of their activities,

such as air and water quality, endangered species/natural resource

protection, and environmental justice.

• 缺点：it relies heavily on US Forest Service regional data and other

official datasets for such things as the calculation of baselines and

establishing additionality.

Plan vivo Standard• 管理机构： Plan Vivo Foundation, formerly BioClimate Research

and Development, a registered charity based in Scotland.

• 成立目的：The Plan Vivo Standards are designed to verify the

carbon, social and environmental benefits of rural community land-

use projects.

• 项目类型： Agroforestry, afforestation and small-scale timber, fruit

or wood fuel plantations; Restoration and reforestation of degraded

or damaged ecosystems such as woodlands; Conservation of

forests and woodlands under threat from deforestation.

• 签发产品： Plan Vivo Certificates

• 优点： Independent verification of carbon, social and environmental

project benefits is required every five years after validation. buffer

reserve of credits be established to cover permanence issues.

• 缺点： credits are issued annually based on internal monitoring of

implementation. The project coordinater only be NGOs and NFPCs

CarbonFix Standard

• 管理机构： is administered by a non-profit association NGO and is

based in Germany.

• 成立目的： aiming for a „best of both worlds‟ approach. The

standard accounts for the wider social and environmental impacts of

carbon projects (unlike VCS) and issues carbon credits (unlike

CCB).

• 范围： afforestation and reforestation activities, not to avoided

deforestation (REDD) activity.

• 优点：Upfront project validation and registration costs are generally

lower than other standards.

• 缺点：but a high registry fee is charged for resulting carbon credits.

VER+ Carbon Standard

• 管理机构：is offered by German project validation firm TÜV SÜD.

• 范围： is available to project developers looking to verify projects to

best practice levels around UN Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean

Development Mechanism (CDM) rules. the emerging REDD avoided

deforestation space won‟t be covered by VER+

• 优点： it suits developers trying to keep voluntary market verification

efforts in parallel with CDM/JI requirements.

• 缺点：a conflict of interest in one firm providing an industry standard

and also validating projects to that standard.

Gold Standard

• 管理机构：由WWF发起，目前由瑞士的巴赛尔可持续能源机构（BASE）主管

• 成立目的：第一个针对CDM（清洁发展机制）和JI（联合履约机制）温室气体减排项目开发的、独立的、具有良好实用性的基准方法。为项目开发商提供了一套方法，以确保CDM和JI能够产生有利于可持续发展的真实可靠的环境效益。

• 优点：考虑到对环境和社区可持续发展的贡献，操作简单

• 缺点：does not cover the forestry and land-use sector

CCB

• 管理机构：adminstered by the Climate, Community & Biodiversity

Alliance (CCBA)，a global partnership of companies and non-

governmental organisations.

• 成立目的：aimed at promoting the development of forest protection,

restoration and agro-forestry projects through high quality multiple-

benefit land-based carbon projects.

• 范围： forest protection, restoration and agro-forestry projects

• 优点：While CCBS places heavy emphasis on the social and

environmental benefits and impacts of a project, a pragmatic

approach is taken.

• 缺点：The CCB Standard is not a prescriptive, rules-based

standard, rather one based on general design concepts with projects

judged against these criteria on their individual merits.

SOCIALCARBON Standard

• 开发机构：developed by the Ecologica Institute, a Brazilian NGO.

• 成立目的： is not a carbon credit-issuing standard but an add-on

standard aimed at establishing the social and non-climatic

environmental impacts and benefits of a carbon project.

• 范围：

• 优点：While very qualitative, areas identified for improvements are

expected to deliver tangible results for formal certification under the

standard.

• 缺点：it does not address additionality and baseline methodological

issues required for generating verified emissions reductions.it is

mainly being used so far by small local enterprises running fuel-

switching projects; from wood or fossil fuels to renewable biomass

energy.

Source: point carbon

4、案例分析-CCX• 项目注册流程

Source: CCX

• 项目注册数量

Source: CCX

• 交易价格

Source: CCX

5、国际碳交易市场趋势

• 5.1 市场价格

• 5.2 交易趋势

5.1 市场价格

Source: Point Carbon

Source: Point Carbon

5.2 交易趋势

交易量(MtCO2e)

成交额(MUS$)

交易量(MtCO2e)

成交额(MUS$)

CDM一级市场 552 7433 389 6519

JI 41 499 20 294

自愿碳市场 43 263 54 397

合计 636 8195 463 7210

合计 240 5451 1072 26277

欧盟交易平台（EU ETS） 2060 49065 3093 91910

新南威尔士（New South

Wales）25 224 31 183

芝加哥气候交易所(CCX) 23 72 69 309

区域温室气体减排行动(RGGI) 65 246

分配数量单位（AAUs） 18 211

合计 2108 49361 3258 92648

总计 2984 63007 4793 126135

2007-2008年国际碳交易量和成交额

来源：The world bank,2009,State and trends of the Carbon Market 2009

2007 2008

基于项目的交易

CDM二级市场

限额市场

6、我国林业碳汇潜能

• 2009年，联合国气候变化峰会上，胡锦涛主席提出“要大力增加森林碳汇，到2020

年我国森林面积比2005年增加4000万公顷，森林蓄积量增加13亿立方米”

• 按“森林每生长1立方米，平均能吸收1.83TCO2，释放1.62TO2”计算，到2020

年能吸收约24亿TCO2

• 按照发改委定的CER最低价8€/T计算，共计192亿€

谢谢大家！

修勤绪(Qinxu Xiu)

中国林业产权交易所碳汇交易部电 邮(EMAIL): qxxiu@cfexc.com

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