2010 economic preview ism 97 2003

Marvin R. ClarkManaging Principal

Chief Economist and Strategist

ISM Diversity SummitOmni Hotel

February 3, 2010San Diego, California

Monsoon Wealth Management

2010 Economic Preview:V or W or U or √ or L

1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY



2008 & 2009 Review2008 2009

Bear StearnsIndy MacFannie Mae Freddie MacLehman Bros.Breaking the BuckTARP6% Contraction

President ObamaUnemploymentFalling Stock MarketNew LowsMarch RallyForeclosuresGreen ShootsStimulus Dollars



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXoNE14U_zM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXoNE14U_zM

Post WWII US Economic TheoriesJohn Maynard KeynesHigher TaxesGovernment

SpendingSocial Safety NetsUnion WagesUniversal Health

CareRedistribution of

Wealth

Supply-Side EconomicsLower TaxesSmaller

GovernmentFree MarketsNo minimum wage

lawFew regulationsBuyer beware


MAJOR CAUSES of Post WWII Deflation• Falling oil prices 1981-2000• Falling interest rates 1981-2008• Deregulation• Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007• The information and digital age• Personal computer 1981• NAFTA• Globalization• The Internet• Cheap Capital1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com

MAJOR CAUSES Of Post WW II Inflation

Great Society Programs 1964-1968Vietnam War 1959-1975Suspending the gold standard 1971The 1st oil embargo 1973Inexperienced workforce 1972-

1982Antiquated manufacturing facilitiesThe 2nd oil embargo 1979Excessive money supply growth1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com

The 2000’s• Cowboy Capitalism• Leverage• Exotic investment products• Lax supervision• Deficit spending• Derivatives• Lowered underwriting standards• O.P.M. (other peoples’ money)• No Fear


This Decade’s Four Bubbles• Dot.com Stocks• Residential Real Estate• Commercial Real Estate• Blue Chip Stocks


The New Normal• An L shaped recovery• Multi-year credit contraction• Re-regulation• Low, low growth• Higher taxes• Later on, inflation• China’s driving• A reduced standard of living in America


Marv

Predicting 2010 2009 Holiday Sales4th Quarter GDPDecember Unemployment NumbersOther 4th quarter and 2009 Economic DataReal EstateNational Wealth


Marv

January 4-8th Data


MondayISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ETConstruction Spending10:00 AM ET4-Week Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET3-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM ET6-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM

TuesdayTuesday

Motor Vehicle Sales ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ETRedbook8:55 AM ETFactory Orders10:00 AM ETPending Home Sales Index10:00 AM ET

WednesdayMBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ETChallenger Job-Cut Report7:30 AM ETADP Employment Report8:15 AM ETISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 AM ETEIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ETFOMC Minutes2:00 PM ET

ThursdayChain Store Sales

Monster Employment Index6:00 AM ETJobless Claims8:30 AM ET30-Yr Bond Announcement9:00 AM ETEIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ETTreasury STRIPS3:00 PM ETFed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ETMoney Supply4:30 PM ET

FridayEmployment Situation8:30 AM ETWholesale Trade10:00 AM ETConsumer Credit3:00 PM ET

http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442617&cust=bloomberg&year=2010#top








































January 11-15 Data


Monday4-Week Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction11:30 AM ET

10-Yr TIPS Auction1:00 PM ET

TuesdayICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ET

International Trade8:30 AM ET

Redbook8:55 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction11:30 AM ET


3-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET

WednesdayBank Reserve Settlement

MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ET


Beige Book2:00 PM ET

Treasury Budget2:00 PM ET

ThursdayRetail Sales8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices8:30 AM ET

RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET

Business Inventories10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Auction1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET

Money Supply4:30 PM ET

FridayConsumer Price Index8:30 AM ET

Empire State Mfg Survey8:30 AM ET

Industrial Production9:15 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment9:55 AM ET

http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=443051&cust=bloomberg&year=2010








































January 18-22 Data


MondayUS Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day

All Markets Closed

TuesdayTreasury International Capital9:00 AM ET

State Street Investor Confidence Index10:00 AM ET

Housing Market Index1:00 PM ET

Wednesday MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 AM ET

Housing Starts8:30 AM ET

Producer Price Index8:30 AM ET

Redbook8:55 AM ET

ThursdayJobless Claims8:30 AM ET

Leading Indicators10:00 AM ET

Philadelphia Fed Survey10:00 AM ET



3-Month Bill Announcement11:00 AM ET


2-Yr Note Announcement11:00 AM ET





FridayNo Data Today

































January 25-29 Data


MondayExisting Home Sales10:00 AM ET

TuesdayFOMC Meeting Begins


Redbook8:55 AM ET

S&P Case-Shiller HPI9:00 AM ET

Consumer Confidence10:00 AM ET

FHFA House Price Index10:00 AM ET



Wednesday Bank Reserve Settlement

MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET

New Home Sales10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report10:30 AM ET5-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET

FOMC Meeting Announcement2:15 PM ET

ThursdayDurable Goods Orders8:30 AM ETJobless Claims8:30 AM ET







FridayGDP8:30 AM ETEmployment Cost Index8:30 AM ET

Chicago PMI9:45 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment9:55 AM ET

Farm Prices3:00 PM ET








































February 1-5 Data


MondayPersonal Income and Outlays8:30 AM ET

ISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ET

Construction Spending10:00 AM ET

TuesdayMotor Vehicle Sales


Redbook8:55 AM ET

Pending Home Sales Index10:00 AM ET

Wednesday MBA Purchase Applications7:00 AM ET

Challenger Job-Cut Report7:30 AM ET

ADP Employment Report8:15 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Announcement9:00 AM ET

ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 AM ET




ThursdayChain Store Sales

Monster Employment Index6:00 AM ET

Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET

Productivity and Costs8:30 AM ET

RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET

Factory Orders10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ETTreasury STRIPS3:00 PM ET



FridayEmployment Situation8:30 AM ET

Consumer Credit3:00 PM ET




































Monsoon Wealth Management



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_iKg7nutNY

Economy & Finance

2010 economic preview ism 97 2003