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OECD/ECLAC REGIONAL CONSULTATION Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Inclusive social policies Simone Cecchini, ECLAC

2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

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Page 1: 2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

OECD/ECLAC REGIONAL CONSULTATIONInclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Inclusive social policies

Simone Cecchini, ECLAC

Page 2: 2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

2

Inclusive social policies have contributed to reduce poverty and inequality

• Different factors explain the decline in poverty and inequality in LAC– Economic growth with job creation in the formal

sector

– Higher (and more progressive) taxes and social investment

– Adoption of counter-cyclical policies

– Longer-term trends such as demographic and labour participation trends; decline in unsatisfied basic needs

– Positive impact of social protection programmes

Page 3: 2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

Steady growth of non-contributory social protection and social investment

5.7

13.515.4

18.2 18.7 19.5 20.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.06

0.210.26

0.29

0.38 0.36

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011

33.2

35.837.2

38.3

40.7

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CCT COVERAGE(Percentage of total population)

CCT INVESTMENT(Percentages of GDP)

SOCIAL PENSIONS COVERAGE(Percentages of population aged 65 and above)

Sou

rce: P

rep

are

d b

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asis o

f EC

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ata

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on

-co

ntrib

uto

ry socia

l pro

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rog

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mes in

Latin

Am

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an

d th

e C

arib

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[o

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ttp://d

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ocia

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ora

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12

.

11.2

12.913.7 13.9

14.4 14.8 14.915.6

16.6

18.6

45.7

52.754.4

52.4

55.9

59.3

62.4 62.8 62.5 62.6

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1991-1992

1993-1994

1995-1996

1997-1998

1999-2000

2001-2002

2003-2004

2005-2006

2007-2008

2009-2010

Perc

en

tag

e o

f pu

blic

investm

en

t

Perc

en

tag

e o

f G

DP

Percentage of GDP

Percentage of public investment

SOCIAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN LAC (percentage of GDP and percentage of total public

investment)

Page 4: 2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

Disincentives to labour insertion?

• Some argue that these programmes are creating dependency instead of fostering families’ autonomous efforts to overcome poverty– Disincentive to the labour supply on the part of the poor

• However, the amounts of the cash transfers have a quite limited capacity of covering poor families’ income deficit– Difficult for poor people to stop looking for work simply

because they receive public cash transfers

• Impact evaluations from 6 LAC countries do not find empirical evidence of CCTs’ disincentives to beneficiaries’ labour insertion

Page 5: 2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

Incentives to informalization?

• Levy (2010) has argued against a “vicious circle” of non-contributory social programmes that generate subsidies to the informal sector, incentivizing workers to look for low-productivity jobs (in order to avoid compulsory social security savings) – Programmes are lowering the productivity of labour and capital, and

contributing to the generation of low-quality employment

• However, most CCTs are not directed to working-age adults, but rather to children, nor are they targeted according to the working conditions of beneficiaries

• In Brazil, Medeiros, Britto and Veras Soares (2008) find that the Continuous Benefit Programme (BPC), a social pension for older adults and people with disabilities, has not been a cause for lower contributions to social security

• Latin America’s informality rate has decreased while CCTs and social pensions expanded, going from 54.6% of employed workers in 1990 to 49.1% in 2009

Page 6: 2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

From a “vicious” to a “virtuous” cycle

Cash transfers

Guaranteed level of minimum subsistence

Resources available to cover labour insertion

costs (job search, transport, etc.) and to

access better-paid jobs

Productive investments (agriculture,

micro enterprise)

Multiplier effect: stimulus to local economies and

growth

Page 7: 2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_simone cecchini

Simone CecchiniSocial Affairs OfficerSocial Development Division, [email protected]