ADVICE FOR THE WISE

September 2016

CONTENTS • From The CEO’s Desk

• Did You Know?

• Domestic Equity Outlook

• Domestic Debt Outlook

• Domestic Debt Strategy

• Global Equity Outlook

• Global Economy Update

• Global Debt Outlook

• Sector Outlook

• Real Estate Outlook

• Commodities

• Foreign Exchange

• What’s Trending.

• Disclaimer

FROM THE CEO’s DESK

Dear Investors,

Ending months of speculation, the government finally appointed Dr. Urjit Patel as the next RBI Governor, who is set to take over the helm of affairs at

the Central Bank on 4th September. Equity markets, investors and the corporate world in general have given a big thumbs up to this announcement

as they anticipate a continuation of the policy stance implemented by Dr. Raghuram Rajan. Under Dr. Patel, the RBI is expected to continue its focus

on Inflation targeting, speedy recovery of the stressed assets of public sector banks and improvement of credit growth and the liquidity framework

within the country.

As a parting gift, Dr. Rajan announced a slew of measures aimed at boosting the corporate bond market, broadening the forex market and permitting

banks to issue masala bonds in overseas markets. The RBI will move to cap the exposure of banks to large borrowers, while at the same time permit

corporates to issue bonds to raise funding. This will prevent companies from being overly dependent on banks for their funding and permit regulated

investors (like insurance companies) to invest in bonds issued by a wider range of companies. Dr. Rajan indicated that the RBI will eventually start

accepting corporate bonds as collateral at its liquidity adjustment facility window, which essentially means that banks would be able to use corporate

bonds as security to borrow from the RBI. Separately, the central bank will allow banks to raise rupee resources through masala bonds as well as give

foreign investors direct access to the bond trading platforms. The impact of these reforms is likely to be far-reaching.

Meanwhile, as global liquidity flows sobered down, the Indian equity markets too tempered their frenetic pace. Nonetheless, the Nifty managed

to touch a 16-month high of 8800. Given the negative interest rate scenario in Japan and Europe, coupled with the volatility seen after the Brexit

referendum, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in its forthcoming meeting in September. Going ahead, we expect our

Indian markets to continue doing well and we urge investors to use every dip as a buying opportunity. As we enter into the festive season, we

expect the domestic consumption-driven stocks and sectors to take the markets to higher levels.

On a separate note, the performance of our women athletes at the Rio Olympics needs to be truly lauded. The dedication, enthusiasm and

commitment shown by our triumvirate of Sindhu, Sakshi and Dipa embody the never-given-in spirit of true winners. The nation is proud of them!

Let me end this note by wishing you all a Happy Ganesh Chaturthi! May Lord Ganesha shower his blessings on you and your families!

DID YOU KNOW

Argentina has highest interest

rates in the world 20% on one-year

time deposit.

.

As a economy China lifted more

people out of poverty than any

other country.

United States has the largest gold

Reserve more than 8,000 metric tons of

gold followed by Germany gold reserves

of approximately 3,378.2 metric tons

DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK

As on 25th

August 2016 1 Month Change

1 Year

Change

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 27,835 -0.50% 8.25%

CNX Nifty 8,592 0.02% 10.27%

BSE Mid Cap 12,977 4.48% 23.87%

BSE Small Cap 12,501 2.90% 16.71%

80

90

100

110

120

130

140 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

Emerging markets are being driven by global liquidity in search of

yields. While US has reiterated its resolve to increase interest

rates, Japan and the EU are engaged in a race to the bottom

driving monetary policy to uncharted territories. Investors are

debating the limits of monetary policy and looking forward to a

more creative use of fiscal policy by the developed economies.

Periodic spurts in global yields have failed to dampen the

enthusiasm of bond bulls. Although economic fundamentals in

India are progressively getting better, the next few months will not

be about Indian fundamentals. Global developments would be the

key driver of sentiments and stock prices.

DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK

GOVERNMENT POLICY

The much awaited GST bill has been finally passed by both houses of Parliament and is likely to be ratified by half the Indian state

legislatures paving the way for its rollout for FY17-18. Railway budget is likely to be subsumed in the Union budget for FY17-18

marking a historic departure from convention.

WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX

• India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at

3.55% for July, 2016 as compared to 1.62% for the month of

June.

• Food articles inflation increased in the month of June by

11.82%. Vegetables increased by 28.05%. Inflation in the fuel

and power segment was -1.0%, while that of manufactured

products it was 1.82% in June.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

• CPI for the month of June remained flat at 5.77% as

compared to 5.76% in May.

• Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages rose 7.38 percent

(7.2 percent in May).

• The food prices rose by 7.79% compared to downwardly

revised 7.47% in the previous month.

Source – Tradingeconomics

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16

WPI CPI

IIP

• Industrial output in India rose by 2,1 percent year-on-year in june of

2016, against upwardly revised 1.1% in May 2016.

• Manufacturing rose 0.9%, as against 0.6% in May. Meanwhile, the

mining sector output increased by 4.7% in May 2016.

GDP

• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter

of the current financial year slowed down to 7.1% versus 7.9% for

the previous quarter.

• Private consumption growth eased to 6.7 percent from 8.3 percent

in the previous quarter while government spending jumped 18.8

percent, accelerating from a 2.9 percent growth in Q1. Gross fixed

capital formation shrank at a faster 3.1 percent, following a 1.9

percent contraction in the previous period.

Source – Tradingeconomics

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

IIP

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

GDP

DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK

The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 7.25% which is 21 bps

lower than the last months close of 7.43%

The daily turnover for the notes on the Reserve Bank of India’s

dealing platform reached an unprecedented 1.43 trillion rupees

($21.4 billion) on 28th July. At 921 billion rupees, the daily

average value of securities traded for the month of July was

also an all-time high, and more than double the amount for the

first six months of 2016, as benchmark 10-year bonds capped

their best month since May 2013.

As on 25th

August 2016

1 Month

Change 1 Year Change

Debt Markets

10-Yr G-Sec-

Yield 7.12 (13bps) (67bps)

Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps)

Source – Reuters

0

50

100

150

200

250

AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+

Corporate Bond Spreads

5 Years 10 Years 15 Years

6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20 8.40 8.60 8.80 G-Sec

10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield

DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY

SHORT TERM DEBT Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can

look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s

YTMs have fallen to sub-8%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8%-10%) providing

interesting investment opportunities.

CORPORATE BOND

FUNDS

The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the

credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be

attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favourable.

The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of

yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating

will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds.

DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt

and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after

studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want

to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond

funds.

LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS With the likelihood of another rate cut being minimal and the uncertainty with regard to the monsoon and global

commodity prices, particularly crude oil, a rally in G-Sec yields is unlikely. Investors should start exiting their

investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short term funds.

GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK

As on 25th

August 2016

1 Month

Change

1 Year

Change

Equity Markets

MSCI World 1727 1.25% 6.86%

Hang Seng 22814 3.10% 8.23%

S&P 500 2172 0.15% 11.95%

Nikkei 16555 1.06% -9.91%

GLOBAL INDICES

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140 MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei

GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK

US is likely to increase interest rates in the September policy marking a decisive turn in the trajectory of global interest rates and a benign liquidity

environment.

GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE

UNITED STATES U.S. to urge G20 to boost economies, pay attention to angry citizens U.S. President Barack Obama will

call on leaders from the Group of 20 to use fiscal policy and other tools to boost economic growth while

reducing excess capacity at steel factories.

U.S. economic growth was slightly more tepid than initially thought in the second quarter as businesses

aggressively ran down inventories, offsetting a spurt in consumer spending. Gross domestic product

expanded at a 1.1 percent annual rate. That was modestly down from the 1.2 percent rate it reported last

month and also reflected more imports than previously estimated as well as weak government spending.

JAPAN

Japanese manufacturing activity showed signs of steadying in August as output rose for the first time in

six months, in a tentative sign that the economy may be recovering from a slump earlier this year. The IHS

Markit/Nikkei Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 49.6 in August

from a final 49.3 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Japanese manufacturers' mood soured in August to its lowest since 2013 when the central bank

embarked on aggressive monetary easing. According to the Reuters poll, reflecting the pain caused by a

rising yen and highlighting the huge task facing policymakers to generate growth.

Source – Reuters

GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE

EUROPE Higher exports, state spending propel German growth Solid economic growth generated a record budget

surplus for Germany in the first half of this year, stoking a debate within government about whether the

country should use its spare revenue to cut taxes or increase spending.

London firms losing faith in quick-fix access to EU after Brexit Big financial groups in London are losing

faith in a quick fix to get access to the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc and are instead

drawing up contingency plans to avoid becoming hostage to Brussels politics.

EMERGING

ECONOMIES

Indian factory activity expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2015 in August, helped by surging new

orders, while only modest price increases should give the central bank scope to ease policy further, ndian

annual economic growth slowed in the April-June quarter to 7.1 percent, short of expectations for 7.6

percent according Reuters poll.

Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in August, though growth was modest.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.4 in August, compared with the previous month's

49.9 and above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis..

Source – Reuters

GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK

The Russian government is hoping to tap the international capital

markets again this year and could raise another $1.25bn from a

Eurobond issue.

Saudi Arabia will probably push ahead with the sale of at least $10

billion of bonds even if the U.S. raises interest rates next month,

spurred on by demand for emerging-market assets that may leave

enough room for other Gulf states to follow..

Qatar National Bank is planning to tap the international bond

market, The bank is set to issue a 5-year bond of at least $500m,

adding to what has already been a record year of issuance for the

group.

Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield 1 Month

Change

AAA

Germany -0.06% 4 bps

Hong Kong 0.97% 3 bps

Sweden 0.09% (2 bps)

Switzerland -0.46% 10 bps

AA+ USA 1.59% 10 bps

AA-

China 2.82% 3 bps

Japan -0.05% 9 bps

Source – Reuters

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR STANCE REMARKS

Automobiles

Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base

effect and normal monsoons.

Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets.

FMCG

We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments,

as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in

raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons.

E&C Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery.

Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.

BFSI Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on

higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR STANCE REMARKS

IT/ITES Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume

growth in the EU regions

Power Utilities Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in

near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run.

Cement Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back

in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings.

Healthcare Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth

continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR STANCE REMARKS

Energy Crude prices at 6 month high, though prices have corrected by 15% in past one month and substantially lower on annual

basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive. Trend expected to continue.

Telecom Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal

returns on capital. Further, expected launch of R-Jio at competitive prices in Q2FY17 will have negative implications.

Metals Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months

with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted

restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry

of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to

receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have

remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I

markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in

demand with sluggish market sentiments.

With improvements in infrastructure across cities like

Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,

Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being

offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for

choice. The Demand drivers have increased

nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier

availability of credit.

RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong

demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai

has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital

values have also been on rise in major markets except in

NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption

volumes have been surpassing new completions

consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the

vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.

Low unit sizes have played an important role in

maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease

rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at

their current levels in the commercial asset class.

COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls

continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B,

premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing

activity. International brands were seen increasing their

footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in

demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai

remained stagnant.

The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street

retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that

rentals have remained stagnant in this space.

RETAIL Tier I Tier II

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities

and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in

purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower

ticket size and better marketing by developers

/aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for

warehousing with the growth of E commerce.

Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established

growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation

due to low investment base in such areas.

LAND Tier I Tier II

COMMODITIES

GOLD

Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global

uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond $1300.

Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news flows could

strengthen its prices. Near term range remains $1300-1400.

• As on 25th August, 2016 : 31,281 per 10gm

• 1 month change : 1.68%

• 1 year change : 17.16%

24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 31000 32000

Gold

COMMODITIES

CRUDE OIL

Crude prices have stabilized between $40- $50 per barrel.

Crude along with Gold continues be the prime indicator of

global risk appetite. It is unlikely that Crude spends more time

in the current range and a massive breakout is imminent in

either direction depending on global conditions.

• As on 25th July, 2016 : $49.25 per bbl

• 1 month change : 13.10%

• 1 year change : 17.90%

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

Crude

Currency As on 25th

August 2015 1 Month Change 1 Year Change

USD/INR 67.09 -0.42% -1.38%

GBP/INR 88.66 0.55% 17.17%

Euro/INR 75.59 1.93% 0.39%

Yen/INR 66.84 3.50% -17.30%

USD/Euro 0.88 0.41% 0.11%

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

• The World Bank issued 500 million SDR units ($698

million) of three-year notes in China’s interbank market this

week, the first sale of debt in the International Monetary

Fund’s alternative reserve assets since the 1980s.

• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) bragged the

Lion City remains the largest foreign exchange centre in

the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest globally after

London and New York. MAS revealed that the average

daily trading volume of Singapore’s forex market swelled

35% to US$517 billion in April 2016 from US$383 billion in

the same month three years ago.

• The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.3

billion to $367.2 billion in the week to August 26 on account

of increase in foreign currency assets.

-0.42%

0.55%

1.93%

3.50%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

USD GBP EURO YEN

WHAT’S TRENDING

URJIT PATEL ANNOUNCED AS THE NEW RBI GOVERNOR

Profile

• Urjit Patel, 52, is presently one of the four deputy governors at the RBI. He has run the central bank's monetary policy department since 2013 and

has worked closely with the Raghuram Rajan during his stint at the central bank.

• Patel was advisor (energy & infrastructure) to The Boston Consulting Group. He is a PhD (economics) from Yale University (1990) and MPhil from

Oxford (1986). He has been a non-resident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution since 2009.

• Between 1990 and 1995, Patel was with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he worked on the US, India, Bahamas and Myanmar desks.

• During 1996-97 he was on deputation from the IMF to the RBI and provided advice on development of the debt market, banking sector reforms,

pension fund reforms, real exchange rate targeting and evolution of the foreign exchange market.

• Patel has also served the government in various positions during the NDA-I regime.

• Apart from these, his other assignments include, president (business development), Reliance Industries; executive director and member of the

management committee, IDFC; member of the Integrated Energy Policy Committee of the Government of India; and member of the Board, Gujarat

State Petroleum Corporation Ltd, the RBI site said.

• Between 2000 and 2004, Patel has worked closely with several Central and state government high-level committees such as, Task Force on Direct

Taxes, Union Ministry of Finance; Advisory Committee (on Research Projects and Market Studies), Competition Commission of India; secretariat for

the Prime Minister’s Task Force on Infrastructure; Group of Ministers on Telecom Matters; Committee on Civil Aviation Reforms; Ministry of Power’s

Expert Group on State Electricity Boards and High Level Expert Group for Reviewing the Civil & Defence Services Pension System, Government of

India.

Source – www.rbi.org.in, www.wikipedia.com, www.firstpost.com

WHAT’S TRENDING

Current Monetary Policy Status

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has committed itself to a regime of flexible inflation targeting. Flexible inflation targeting means that a central bank

will try to keep inflation close to its formal target while being sensitive to conditions in the real economy.

• In the new monetary policy framework, persistently high inflation is deemed unacceptable because it harms economic growth over the medium term,

as is well known.

• The monetary policy will be flexible as long as inflation is within the range that has been given by the political system. Raghuram Rajan had to fight a

blazing inflationary fire when he took charge three years ago. Inflation is now within the acceptable range—though the trend in recent months is

ample cause for worry.

• The trade-off between inflation and growth was relatively easier when inflation was being brought down in the first two stages—from 10% to 8% and

then from 8% to 6%. The journey from 6% to 4% will be much more difficult. It could involve a much higher sacrifice ratio. That is why the nature of

the monetary policy response could change in the coming months—not because there is a new governor, but because the underlying economic

situation has changed. Monetary policy could be more flexible than widely assumed.

• Patel will now have to share the power to set interest rates with a new monetary policy committee (MPC).

• Patel is a reticent man—though he has actually given more speeches as deputy governor than the two speeches that have been mentioned in media

reports after he was appointed governor. How he eventually runs Indian monetary policy will depend on the state of the underlying economy, but it is

important to remember that the recent victories in the long battle against high inflation will give him space to be flexible. There is a reason it is called

flexible inflation targeting.

Source – www.livemint.com

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