Upload
pere-eurotopia
View
1.539
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
El Club de Roma celebra ‘La Asamblea Global 2009’ en Ámsterdam con el título ‘Climate, Energy and Economic Recovery’ cuyo principal orador de honor es MIKHAIL GORBACHEV.
Citation preview
Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009Climate, Energy and Economic Recovery
Amsterdam, 26 and 27 October 2009, Muziekgebouw aan ‘t IJ/Harbour Music Hall
Phot
o: C
olle
ctio
n A
mst
erda
ms
His
tori
sch
Mus
eum
Introduction
• Since1976,theClubofRomehasbeenorganisinganannual
worldconferenceonwhatitreferstoasthePredicament of Mankind
or the Problematique.Initsreportsovertheyears,theClubof
Romehashighlightedthemanyunderlyingissues:foodproduction,
resourcedepletion,population,pollution,energy,poverty,the
globaleconomyandsoon.
• Initsfirstreport,Limits to Growth,theClubpresentedanovel
analysisoftheseissues,adoptinga‘systemsapproach’basedona
computermodelcalledWorldIII(seeAppendix1).Ina2008study,
theAustralianresearchorganisationCSIROshowedthatactual
developmentsoverthe40yearssincethereport’spublication
conformverycloselytothescenariosdescribedinLimits.
• Manyseethecurrentworldcrisisasasignaloftheencroaching
limitstogrowth.The2009ClubofRomeconferencewillprovidea
uniqueopportunitytodebatewhetherthisisindeedthecase.
Frontpage:
TheGoldenLion,flagshipoftheDutchfleet,issaluted,cominghomeafter20years
ofloyalserviceintheharbourofAmsterdam;thesamevenueaswheretheClubof
RomewillhaveitsGlobalAssembly!
PaintedbyWillemvanderVeldejr.in1686.
• TheeventisbeingorganisedbyIMSAAmsterdam,anorganisation
createdbyClubofRomeMemberWoutervanDieren,Chairmanof
IMSA.VanDierenissupportedbyPietBriët,ProjectManager.The
ClubofRomeInternationalSecretariatinWinterthur,Switzerland,
Secretary-GeneralR.MartinLeesandtheExecutiveCommittee
oftheClubarealsoprovidingsupport.Asteeringcommitteehas
beenestablished,operatingunderaspecialentity,theStichting
(Foundation)“ClubofRomeGlobalAssembly2009Amsterdam”.
TheDutchAssociationfortheClubofRomeisinvolved,helpingwith
conferencepreparationsandtheMasterClasses.
TheaimsoftheClubofRome’sAnnualAssemblyareto
presenttheresultsofon-goingprogrammesandfutureplans,
toexchangeideasandtoidentifythedefiningfeaturesof
today’strendsandfuturechallenges.
Theissueofsustainabledevelopmentremainsaspivotal
asever.Thishasbeenamajorresponsetotheoriginal
messageofLimits to Growth,whichbroughttheClubof
Romeworldwiderecognition.Thekeyissuesinthiscontext
areenergyefficiency,climatestabilisationandeconomic
recovery.
Thisyear’sAssemblyistakingplaceatakeystageof
thepreparationsfortheUnitedNationsClimateChange
ConferencetobeheldinCopenhageninDecember2009.
Itisintendedthattheconclusionsandinsightsofthe
Assemblywillleadtoadeclaration,asacontributiontothe
negotiatingprocessforthisConference.
Day 1Chair: Paul Hohnen
08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee
09:30 - 10:15 Opening09:30-09:35 PaulHohnen,Introduction
09:35-09:40 WoutervanDieren,Welcome
09:40-09:50 JobCohen,CityofAmsterdam
09:50-10:05 AshokKhoslaandEberhardvonKoerber,ClubofRome
10:05-10:15 PaulHohnen,LogisticsandMasterClasses
10.15 - 12:45 Master Classes >>
12:45 - 13:45 Lunch
13:45 - 15:30 The Need for Urgent Action on Climate Change at the National and International Levels
14:00-14:05 PaulHohnen,ReflectionontheMorning
14:05-14:15 RuudLubbers,IntroductionMikhailGorbachev
14:15-14:45 MikhailGorbachev,KeynoteStatement
14:45-14:55 RicardoLagos,SpecialEnvoyonClimateChange
14:55-15:30 PanelwithRuudLubbers,MikhailGorbachev,Ricardo
LagosandMartinLees
15:30 - 16:00 Break
16:00 - 18:15 The Urgency for Sustainable Economy16:00-16:25 JacquelineCramer,GrowthwithinLimits
16:25-16:50 JamesE.Hansen,LatestNewsonClimateChange
16:50-17:10 MaryNichols,ProvenPracticalSolutionsinCalifornia
17:10-17:30 MartinLees,TheProgrammeoftheClubofRome
17:30-18:00 PanelJacquelineCramer,JamesHansen,MaryNichols
andMartinLees
18:00-18:15 TheEnlightenmentTransition,LEDSolution
18:15 - 19:30 Reception
19:30 - 22:00 Dinner DinnerSpeechAnnemarieRakhorst
MusicalIntermezzo
-W.A.Mozart‘IsisundOsiris’fromthe Zauberflöte
-J.Brel‘Leplatpays’
-R.Strauss‘Morgen’
Programme of the Assembly MONDAYOCTOBER26
Day 2Chair: Paul Hohnen
08:00 - 09:30 Registration and Coffee
09:30 - 11:30 How must Corporations and Financial Institutions adapt to the New Challenges?
09:30-09:45 PaulHohnen,ReflectionsandIntroductionDay2
09:45-10:00 BarryGardiner,LatestNewsonNegotiationsforCOP15
10:00-10:55 CompanyoftheFutureintheContextofClimateChange
KeynotesbyDesso,Method,Philips,Shell,TriodosBank
10:55-11:30 Panel,StefKranendijk,AdamLowry,HarryHendriks,
JormaOllila,PeterBlom
11:30 - 12:00 Break
12:00 - 13:15 Keynotes on Energy, Climate and Oceans12:00-12:30 IanDunlop,ClimateChangeandPeakOil
12:30-12:40 Q&A
12:40-13:05 CharlesMoore,PlasticSoup
13:05-13:15 Q&A
13:15 - 14:15 Lunch
14:15 - 15:30 The Power of Optimism and New Models14:15-14:35 ChristineLoh,DevelopmentinChina
14:35-15:00 MichaelBaungart,CradletoCradle
15:00-15:25 ErnstvonWeizsäcker,Factor5:AConvenientTruth:
IncreasingWealthandReducingResourceUse
15:30 - 16:00 Break
16:00 - 17:30 The Message to Copenhagen16:00-16:15 RobertSwanmessage,SolutionstotheClimateCrisis
16:15-16:45 PanelWendyLuhabe,RobertRubinstein,Liesbethvan
Tongeren,AartvanVeller,LastCall
16:45-16:55 AshokKhosla,AmsterdamDeclaration
16:55-17:00 AmsterdamDeclarationtoCopenhagen
17:00-17:25 BilMcDonough,MotivatingCOP15andBeyond
17:25-17:30 EberhardvonKoerberandPaulHohnen,Closing
Remarks
17:30 - 19:00 Reception
TUESDAYOCTOBER27Programme of the Assembly
Master Classes
The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the 1.
Netherlands
Economic Recovery on the Way to a New 2.
Sustainable Economy
The Latest on Climate Change3.
Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy 4.
Supply
Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China 5.
and the US
Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and 6.
Poverty?
Climate Change and Sea Transport7.
From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of 8.
Resources
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services9.
Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and 10.
Capitalism 3.0
1. The Sustainable Economy: A New Model from the NetherlandsFredLangeweg,RobMaas;Chair:KlaasvanEgmond
Thefinancialandenvironmentalcrisesdemonstratethatthecurrenteconomicmodelis
unsustainable.Atpresentgrowthrates,theworldeconomywoulddoubleby2030withimmense
implicationsforresourceuse,theclimate,wasteandpollutionandthesurvivalofecosystems.The
neweconomymustproperlyrecognizeandadapttothesechallenges.Theproblemsareclearand
thecontoursofthemeasuresrequiredareemerging.Anambitioussimulationhasbeendeveloped
intheNetherlandsandthiswillbepresented.
2. Economic Recovery on the Way to a New Sustainable EconomyJohnKay,FranzJosefRadermacher,WolfgangSachs;Chair:AndersWijkman
Theworldeconomyhasbeenconfrontedbyafinancialcrisisleadingtoaneconomicrecession,
andgovernmentshavedirectedtrillionsofdollarstostimulateeconomicrecoveryandto
generateemployment.Thesereactivemeasuresmustbepositionedwithinabroaderpurpose,
toundertakethestructuralreformsnecessarytolaythefoundationsforanew,low-carbon,
environmentallyresponsibleandsociallyequitableeconomy.Thisisapositiveopportunityand
animmensechallenge,toimprovehumanwelfareandprovidenewjobsandopportunitieswithin
theconstraintsofastableclimateandahealthyenvironment.Thefailureoftheconventional
economicwisdomhasopenedawaytomanynewconcepts,whichwillbedebatedinthisMaster
Class.
Master Classes
3. The Latest on Climate Change JamesHansen,MohanMunasinghe,PierVellinga;Chair:CrispinTickell
Thescientificcommunityisachievingadeeperunderstandingofthesystemsandprocesseswhich
driveacceleratingclimatechange.ThisunderstandingisfirmlybasedonthePaleolithicrecord,
increasinglysophisticatedmodelingandaboveall,practicalevidencefromallovertheworld.Inspite
ofallthenegotiationsandagreementstodate,concentrationsofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere
arerisingataratehigherthanthebusiness-as-usualscenarioofIPCC.Wearethusfacingtheriskof
catastrophicclimatechange.Measurestoavertthisriskmustbecomethecentralfocusofpolicy.
4. Peak Oil, Climate Change and Our Future Energy Supply IanDunlop,WimTurkenburg;Chair:PaulHohnen
Moderncivilizationisbasedfundamentallyontheavailabilityofcheapenergy,particularlyoil.For
political,geographicandtechnicalreasonsitappearsthatthesupplywillnotbeabletokeepupwith
theescalatingdemand.Highoilpriceshaveimpactsacrosstheworld,particularlyforthepoorest
sectionsofthepopulation.Andenergyuseisfundamentalasadriverofclimatechange.Policiesand
actionstoaddressthesetwointerconnectedissuesaredifficulttodefineandmaybecontradictory
intheirconsequences.Thelevelofenergydemandin2050willbearounddoublethedemandtoday.
Theseissuesarerealtoday,buttheywillbemoresevereinthefuture.Howcanenergyproduction
doublewhilecuttingemissionsbyaround80%topreserveastableclimate?
Master Classes
5. Practical Steps to a Sustainable Economy: China and the US ChristineLoh,MaryNichols,ZhangShigang;Chair:MartinLees
ChinaisdoublingitsGDPeverytenyearswithconsequentescalationofenergyuseandarapidgrowthinemissions.TheChinese
aremakingaremarkableprogressinimprovingenergyefficiency,indevelopingnewpatternsofproductionandinre-orienting
theireconomyontoalessenvironmentally-damagingpath.Nevertheless,althoughemissionspercapitaarelow,Chinaisnowthe
world’slargestaggregateproducerofclimatechangeemissionsandtheprospectsarethatitsrapidgrowthwillcontinue,asan
explicitpolicytoprovideemploymentandimprovethelivingstandardsofitsgrowingpopulation.Majortransformationsarealso
inprogressacrosstheUS,andtheStateofCaliforniahasbeenplayinganinnovativeroleformanyyears.Thenegotiatingpositions
ofChinaandtheUnitedStatesintheUNClimateChangeConferenceinCopenhagenwillbeadeterminantoftheoutcome.
6. Climate Change is Key, but What About Food and Poverty?HansEenhoorn,DaudiSumba,YoungClubofRomeNL;Chair:IanJohnson
Theworldcommunityisheavilyfocusedonthekeyissueofclimatechange,butwefaceanarrayofpresentandfuture
issueswhichcannotbeignored.Forhundredsofmillionsofpeoplethefoodcrisisisimmediateandincreasingly
desperatewhileoverabillionpeopleliveinabjectpoverty.Thefocusofnegotiationsonmitigationandadaptationisessential,
butimmediateandearlyactionisneededtodealwithproblemsofpovertyandfoodsecurityacrosstheworldwhichwillbegreatly
worsenedbytheimpactsofclimatechange:forexample,increasedwaterstress,desertification,contaminationofaquifers,
floodinganddroughtandextremeweatherevents.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsendorsedbyworldleadersarenowatrisk
andglobalwarmingwillaggravatethisproblem.Thepoordidnotcausetheproblemofclimatechange,buttheyarepayingthe
highestprice.ClimatejusticeandhumanitariansupportwillbekeyelementsforthesuccessoftheCopenhagennegotiations.
Master Classes
7. Climate Change and Sea Transport KoenOvertoom,TiedoVellinga,StephanWrage;Chair:FreekOssel
Internationaltradeandtransportationsystemsonwhichitdependshaveflourishedfordecadesasthe
processofglobalizationhasaccelerated.Butseatransportandtheintensiveactivitiesinportscontribute
significantlytoglobalemissions.Asenergyusepercargounitformaritimetransportisafractionoftheuse
forairtransport,therehavebeenfewinitiativesandincentivestoimproveenergyefficiencyinthemaritime
sector.Althoughemissionsperunitarelow,theaggregateofmaritime-relatedemissionsissubstantial.The
largestportinEurope,Rotterdam,anditssisterportAmsterdam,aremajordriverstowardsanagreement
aimedatreducingthelevelsofCO2emissionsforseatransport.
8. From Resource Efficiency to Effective Use of ResourcesMichaelBraungart,StefanBringezu,BillMcDonough;Chair:FriedrichSchmidt-Bleek
Forfortyyears,theClubofRomehasemphasizedthateconomicgrowthoftheworldeconomybasedon
waste,overuseandthesquanderingofresourcesisnotsustainableinthelongerterm.Scientists,suchas
BioSchmidt-BleekandErnstUlrichvonWeizsäckerhaveproducedconvincingstudieswhichdemonstrate
thatthisistrue.TheirresearchintoFactor10andFactor4hasshownhowhighlevelsofwelfarecanbe
attainedtogetherwithdeepreductionsintheuseofenergyandnaturalresources.Forthisworkthey
receivedtheTakedaPrize.Otherscientistssuchas“CradletoCradle”chemistMichaelBraungartandUS
architectBillMcDonoughmakethecasethateffectivenessshouldbethefocusratherthanefficiency.Re-
designofproductstoallowchemicalrecoveryandrecyclingwouldmakepossibleaprosperouseconomy
withamajorreductionofwaste.
Master Classes
Master Classes
9. Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services AshokKhoslawithPavanSukhdev’smessage,CharlesMoore,JohanRockström;Chair:HansAlders
Whiletheinternationalfocusonclimatechangeisclearlyjustified,thethreatsarisingfromthedegradationof
biodiversityandspecieslossarealsoacute.Humanitydependsentirelyontheecosystemsservicesandthe
naturalcapitaloftheplanet.Thelossofbiodiversityisacceleratingandglobalwarmingwillaggravatethistrend.
Suchissuesarenotincludedinoureconomicmodels:theyareconsideredeffectivelyasfreepublicgoods.To
createfavourableconditionsforthefutureofhumanity,majoreffortswillbeneededtopreserveandrestore
biodiversityandecosystems,withoutwhichtheissueofclimatecannotberesolved.
10. Sustainable Finance, Green Investment and Capitalsm 3.0PeterBlom,AloisFlatz,EberhardvonKoerber,RobertRubinstein,Chair:OttoScharmer
Recenteventshavedemonstratedtheinstabilityoftheworldfinancialsystemwhichhastriggeredadeep
economicrecessionwithdirectimpactsonthejobsandlivesofmillionsofmenandwomenacrosstheworld.
Governmentsarefocusedontheneedforrapidrecovery,butthismustbeachievedwithinthecontextof
strategiestopromoteanewpathofsustainableeconomicgrowth.Toreverttotraditionalmodelsandstrategies
forfinanceandgrowthmaybringshort-termrecoveryatthecostoffurthercrisesinthefuture.Forthisreason,
manyinitiativesareemergingworldwidetocreateasoundframeworkfortheregulationofthefinancialsector,
toestablishnewcriteriaandmethodologiesforgreeninvestment,forintegratingsustainabilityintocorporate
strategyandtoformulateanewconceptionofsustainablesocio-economicgrowthwhichrespectstheenvironment
andconsiderstheprospectsoffuturegenerations.
Allovertheworld,economicrecoveryisbeinglinkedtowhatcanbe
calledthelowcarboneconomy.Aneconomicmodelwillbepresented
whichshowstheeffectsofsustainabilityinterventions,suchasfiscal
measures,treatiesandregulationanddemonstratesthataflourishing
economyisfeasiblewithafactor-10reductionin(carbon)energyuse
andasimilarfactor-10increaseinresourceefficiency.
TheunderlyingmodelbytheNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessment
Agency(PBL)willbeelucidatedinMasterClass1.Thereportwillbe
launchedbyJacquelineCramer,MinisteroftheEnvironmentinthe
Netherlands.
Proposals for a Low Carbon Economy
List of World Master Class Assessors
HansAlders ChairTaskforceBiodiversitytheNetherlands,Netherlands
PeterBlom CEOTriodosBank,SustainableBankoftheYear2009,Netherlands
MichaelBraungart Director,EPEAInternationaleUmweltforschung,Germany
StefanBringezu SeniorFellowandDeputyDirector,DepartmentforMaterialFlowsandStructural
Change,WuppertalInstitute,Germany
StephenByers ChairmanofGLOBEInternational,UK
IanDunlop Expertonclimatechangeandpeakoil,Australia
HansEenhoorn MemberUNTaskForceonhunger,formerVice-PresidentUnilever,Netherlands
KlaasvanEgmond ProfessorofEarthandSustainability,UniversityofUtrecht,Netherlands
WalterErdelen AssistantDirector-GeneralforNaturalSciences,UNESCO,Germany
AloisFlatz Co-founderoftheDowJonesSustainabilityIndexes
JamesHansen HeadoftheNASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,Professorofthe
DepartmentofEarthandEnvironmentalSciences,ColumbiaUniversity,USA
PaulHohnen AssociateFellow,RoyalInstituteforInternationalAffairs(ChathamHouse),London
andformerStrategicDirector,GlobalReportingInitiative(GRI),Australia/NL
IanJohnson FormerVice-PresidentSustainableDevelopment(ESSD),TheWorldBank,USA
JohnKay AuthorofThe Truth about Markets,columnistTheFinancialTimes,UK
AshokKhosla Co-PresidentClubofRome,India;ChairmanofDevelopmentAlternatives
EberhardvonKoerber Co-PresidentoftheClubofRome,ChairmanandCEOofEberhardvonKoerberAG
FredLangeweg DeputyDirectoratNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency,Netherlands
MartinLees Secretary-GeneralClubofRome,Scotland
ChristineLoh FounderandCEOofCivicExchange,non-profitpublicpolicythinktank,HK
RobMaas EuropeanairqualityandsustainabilityexpertattheNetherlandsEnvironmental
AssessmentAgency,Netherlands
BillMcDonough DirectorMcDonoughBraungartDesignChemistry,USA
CharlesMoore OceanographerandFounderofAlgalitaMarineResearchFoundation,USA
MohanMunasinghe Vice-Chair,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,SriLanka
FreekOssel CityofAmsterdamAldermanonAirandSeaPorts,Netherlands
KoenOvertoom ManagingDirectorCommercialDivisionPortofAmsterdam,Netherlands
FranzJosefRadermacher FounderoftheGlobalMarshallPlan,Germany
JohanRockström President,StockholmResilienceCentre,Sweden
RobertRubinstein FounderandCEOofTBLI,Netherlands
WolfgangSachs ProfessorattheWuppertalInstitute,Germany
FriedrichSchmidt-Bleek President,Factor10Institute,France
ZhangShigang HeadofUNEPChinaOffice,China
DaudiSumba DirectorCapacityBuilding&LeadershipDevelopment,AfricanWildlife,Kenya
CrispinTickell AuthorofClimate Change and World Affairs, UK
WimTurkenburg ScientificDirector,CopernicusInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentand
Innovation,Netherlands
PierVellinga DirectoroftheWageningenUniversityClimateProgramme,Netherlands
TiedoVellinga InternationalProjectLeaderEnvironmentalShippingIndex,WPCI,andAssociate
ProfessorPortsandEnvironmentDelftUniversityofTechnology,Netherlands
AndersWijkman Vice-PresidentClubofRome,FormerMemberoftheEuropeanParliament,
Sweden
StephanWrage ManagingPartnerSkySails,Germany
Sponsoringcompaniesandinvitedinstitutionswillbegiven
anopportunitytoexhibittheirinnovationsandsustainability
programmesattheGlobalSolutionsSustainabilityFair.
Itwillbeauniquechancetodemonstratethepotentialofthelatest
innovationsandfamiliariseakeyaudienceandawiderpublicwiththe
latestgreentechnologiesandprogrammes.
Thefairwillbeopentoallinviteesandengagedpressthroughoutthe
twodaysoftheAssembly.
The Sustainability Fair
TheClubofRomeisanindependentglobalthinktank
withnoparticularpolitical,ideologicalorreligious
affiliations.Itsessentialmissionis“toactasaglobal
catalystforchangethroughtheidentificationand
analysisofthecrucialproblemsfacinghumanityand
thecommunicationofsuchproblemstothemost
importantpublicandprivatedecision-makersaswell
astothegeneralpublic.”Itsactivitiesshould“adopt
aglobalperspectivewithawarenessoftheincreasing
interdependenceofnations.Theyshould,through
holisticthinking,achieveadeeperunderstandingof
thecomplexityofcontemporaryproblemsandadopt
atrans-disciplinaryandlong-termperspective
focusingonthechoicesandpoliciesdeterminingthe
destinyoffuturegenerations.”
The Club of Rome
The Programme of the Club of Rome
Theglobalissueswhichwerethefocusofthe1972Report,“LimitstoGrowth”areevenmoresevereandurgenttoday.Atits40thAnniversary
AssemblyinJune2008,theClublaunchedathree-year,integratedprogrammeofinternationalresearchandconsultationonthetopic:ANewPath
forWorldDevelopment.
TheProgrammenowcomplementstheongoing,worldwideactivitiesoftheClubandusesthepotentialoftheinternettoengageitsMembers,its
33NationalAssociationsanditsEuropeanSupportCentretogetherwithexpertsandinstitutionsacrosstheworldinan“opensystems”approach.
Inthisway,itmobilisesandfocusesthebestbrainsavailableonthecriticalissueswhichwilldeterminethefutureofhumanityandoftheplanet.
Theresearchandcontentareoutlinedatwww.clubofrome.org.
Thepresentpathofworlddevelopmentisgeneratingimbalances,vulnerabilities,
inequities,exclusionandpolarizationwhichconstituteclearthreatstothe
prospectsofbothpresentandfuturegenerations.TheProgrammedrawsonthe
independent,multiculturalandinterdisciplinarymembershipoftheClubtoclarify
thekeyelementsofanewpathforworlddevelopment.Itwillproposenewlinesof
thinkingandactionwhichareurgentlyneededto:averttherisksandconsequences
ofcatastrophicclimatechange;reducethedevastatingimpactsofhumanactivities
onecosystemsandenvironmentandtheoveruseofthebiologicalandphysical
resourcesoftheplanet;achievemorefairnessinthedistributionofvitalresources
andopportunitiesandofthecostsandbenefitsofglobalisation;accelerateglobal
effortstoeradicatepovertyanddeprivationofagrowingworldpopulation;adapt
andreformthestructureofinternationalinstitutionstoaddresstheintegrated
problemsofaworldinrapidtransformation;andbroadly,toachieveequitableand
sustainableworlddevelopmentandthuspreserveinternationalsecurityandworld
peace.
Inordertomanagethecomplexityofsuchanextensiveproblematique,the
programmestrategyfocusessuccessivelyonfiveclustersofinter-
connectedissueswhilerecognizingthelinkagesbetweentheclusters.Ineachcase,
asmallexpertconferencedevelopsproposalsforactionandidentifiesissuesfor
in-depthanalysisthroughinternet-based,internationalresearchnetworks.Thefive
clusters are:
ClubofRome
InternationalSecretariat
Apollo House
Lagerhausstrasse9
CH-8400Winterthur
Switzerland
www.clubofrome.org
Tel:00-41-(0)52-244-0808
Fax:00-41-(0)52-244-0809
Email:[email protected]
June2009,Briefing1.1
1. EnvironmentandResources: ClimateChange,EnergySecurity,EcosystemsandWater.
2. Globalisation: DistributionofWealthandIncome,Employment,EconomicRestructuring,TradeandFinance.
3. InternationalDevelopment: DemographicGrowth,EnvironmentalStress,Poverty,FoodProduction,HealthandEmployment.
4. SocialTransformation: SocialChange,Values,Culture,IdentityandBehaviour.
5. PeaceandSecurity: Justice,Democracy,Governance,Solidarity,SecurityandPeace.
Bytheendof2009,theProgrammewillhaveanalysedanddevelopedstrategic
proposalscoveringthreecriticalareasofworldaffairswithinacoherentoverall
perspective:EnvironmentandResources;GlobalisationandFinance;and
InternationalDevelopment.Anditwillalsohavetransmitteditsideasandproposals
directlyintothepolicyprocessatahighlevel.Itwillthushelptobridgethecritical
gapbetweenscienceandanalysisononesideanddecisionmakingontheother.
Threefurtherstepswillbeimplementedin2010tocompletetheProgramme:
aconferenceonCluster4,SocialTransformation,andaconferenceonCluster
5,PeaceandSecurity.Finally,anInternationalForumoftheClubofRomewill
beconvenedinlate2010topresenttheintegratedresultsandlinesofaction.
Thiswillbefollowedbyaprocesstodisseminatetheresultsandproposalsto
leadersinthepublicandprivatesectors,tocivilsociety,totheeducationsystem
andtothepublic.Throughoutthethree-yearprogramme,interimresults,policy
recommendations,briefingandeducationalmaterialswillbeproduced,together
withspecificactivitiestoengageayoungergenerationandthemedia.Inthis
way,theClubwillcontributetoawareness,understanding,publicsupportand
actiononthecriticalissueswhichwilldeterminethefuture.TheClubhasaunique
opportunity to use its wide “brandrecognition”,itsindependentbroadly-based
membership,anditsaccesstoleadingpersonalitiesthroughouttheworldto
pressforamorecoherent,systemicapproachtothemanagementofworldissues,
recognizingthefundamentaltransformationsinprogressandclearlyfacingthe
growingthreatstothefuture.
on A New Path for World Development
• RicardoDíez-Hochleitner,Honorary President,BoardMemberof
theInternationalInstituteforDemocracyandElectoralAssistance,
Spain
• AshokKhosla,Co-President,PresidentofDevelopment
Alternatives,India
• EberhardvonKoerber,Co-President,ChairmanandCEOof
EberhardvonKoerberAG,Switzerland
• HeitorGurgulinodeSouza,Vice-President,
Secretary-GeneraloftheInternationalAssociationofUniversity
Presidents,Brazil
• AndersWijkman,Vice-President,FormerMemberoftheEuropean
Parliament,Sweden
• MartinLees,Secretary-General,RectorEmeritusoftheUniversity
forPeace,UnitedNations,UK
• IsidroFainéCasas,ChairmanoftheCajadeAhorrosy
PensionesdeBarcelona(LaCaixa),Spain
• WendyLuhabe,ChairmanoftheAllianceCapital,
SouthAfrica
• MonaMakram-Ebeid,ProfessorofPolitical
Science,AmericanUniversity,Cairo;formerMemberof
theEgyptianParliament
• KonradOsterwalder,RectoroftheUnitedNations
University,Under-Secretary-GeneraloftheUnitedNations,Japan
• RobertoPeccei,Vice-ChancellorforResearch,
UCLA,USA
• NoemíSanínPosada,AmbassadorofColumbiato
theUnitedKingdom,UK
Members of the Executive Committee of the Club of Rome
H.M.QueenBeatrix,QueenoftheNetherlands•
H.M.JuanCarlosI,KingofSpain•
H.M.DoñaSophia,QueenofSpain•
H.R.H.PrincePhilippe,CrownPrinceofBelgium•
JacquesDelors,France,formerPresidentoftheEuropean •
Commission
MikhailGorbachev,formerPresidentoftheSovietUnion•
RuudF.M.Lubbers,FormerPrimeMinisteroftheNetherlands•
WangariMaathai,FounderoftheGreenBeltMovement •
andrecipientoftheNobelPeacePrize2004
KoïchiroMatsuura,Japan,Director-GeneralofUNESCO•
ManfredA.Max-Neef,Chile,economistandenvironmentalist•
RigobertaMenchúTum,Guatemala,UNESCOGoodwill •
AmbassadorandrecipientoftheNobelPeacePrize1992
SadakoOgata,PresidentoftheJapanInternationalCooperation•
Agency(JICA)
B.F.Paton,Ukraine,PresidentoftheNationalAcademyof •
SciencesofUkraine
ManmohanSingh,PrimeMinisteroftheRepublicofIndia•
HugoThiemann,Switzerland,PresidentoftheIndustrial •
InnovationandCooperativeSystemS.S.A.
ErnestoZedillo,formerPresidentofMexico,DirectoroftheYale•
CentrefortheStudyofGlobalization
Selection of Honorary Members of the Club of Rome
BoardEric-JanTuininga,Chaira.i.andSecretarytotheBoard,Emeritus•
ProfessorFreeUniversityofAmsterdam
ArnaudJansen,Treasurer,HeadofControlling,ASNBank•
KarenJonkers,Boardmember,TT30andSustainabilityEntrepreneur•
PauldeJong,formerHeadofSustainabilityDepartment,Ministryof•
Agriculture,TheNetherlands
BasJurres,Boardmember,TT30andCorporateSustainability•
Entrepreneur
TinekeLambooy,Boardmember,Author• A world to gain: sixteen
views on corporate social responsibility
JeroenvandenBerg,SecretaryandEducationadviser•
Advisory Board to the Dutch ChapterHansEenhoorn,memberUNTaskForceonhunger•
MariusEnthoven,ViceChairmanoftheEnergyCouncil•
JoseevanEijndhoven,ProfessorinSustainableManagement,•
ErasmusUniversityRotterdam
EwoudGoudswaard,CEOofASNBank•
MauritsGroen,SpecialAgenttoAlGoreintheNetherlands•
HansOpschoor,ProfessorofEconomicsofSustainable•
Development,InstituteforSocialStudies
SuzannevanderPijll,PartneratSchuttelaar&Partners,•
SustainableInnovationsinFood,Agriculture,andHumanHealth
PaulRademaker,ProfessorInternalAffairs,UniversityofAmsterdam•
AnnemarieRakhorst,CEOofSearch,EnvironmentalEngineering•
LouiseVet,DirectoroftheNetherlandsInstituteofEcology(NIOO•
KNAW)
Dutch Chapter of the Club of Rome
IMSA Amsterdam, Prins Hendriklaan 15, 1075 AX AmsterdamStichting (Foundation) The Club of Rome Global Assembly 2009
WoutervanDieren,ChairmanIMSA,MemberoftheClubofRome•
PietBriët,ProjectManagerGlobalAssemblyAmsterdam2009, •
SeniorConsultantatIMSAAmsterdam
KimNackenhorst,ProjectLeaderGlobalAssemblyAmsterdam2009,Senior•
ConsultantatIMSAAmsterdam
Websites• www.clubofrome.at/2009/amsterdam
• www.clubofrome.org/eng/home/
• www.clubofrome.nl
• www.imsa.nl
Dutch Members of the Club of Rome• WoutervanDieren,ChairmanIMSAAmsterdam
Organisation Global Assembly 2009
APPENDIX 1: The World 3 Model
TheWorld3computermodeliscomplex,butitsbasicstructureisnothard
tounderstand.Itisbasedonsystemdynamics–amethodforstudyingthe
worldbyunderstandinghowcomplexsystemschangeovertime.Oneofthe
keyfeaturesisinclusionof‘feedbackloops’inthesystemstructurethatcan
influencethebehaviouroftheentiresystem.World3keepstrackof‘stocks’
suchaspopulation,industrialcapital,persistentpollutionandcultivated
land.Inthemodel,thesestockschangeasaresultof‘flows’suchasbirths
anddeaths;investmentanddepreciation;pollutiongenerationandpollution
assimilation;landerosion,landdevelopmentandlandremovedforurbanand
industrial uses.
Inthescenariosrunusingthismodel,fullaccountistakenofpositiveand
negativefeedbackloops,whichcansometimesradicallyaltertheoutcome.
World3alsoincorporatesnon-linearrelationships.Forexample,asmoreland
ismadearable,whatisleftbecomesdrierorsteeperorhasthinnersoils.
Thecostofcopingwiththeseproblemsmeansadramaticriseinthecostof
developingtheland–anon-linearrelationship.Feedbackloopsandnon-
linearrelationshipsmakeWorld3dynamicallycomplex,but the model is still a
simplification of reality.Itdoesnotdistinguishbetweengeographicalregions
oftheworld,nordoesitgiveseparateconsiderationtotherichandthepoor.It
keepstrackofonlytwoaggregatepollutants,whichmovethroughandaffectthe
environmentinwaysthataretypicalofthehundredsofpollutantstheeconomy
actuallyemits.Itignoresthecausesandconsequencesofviolence.And
thereisnoexplicitrepresentationinWorld3ofmilitarycapitalorcorruption.
Incorporatingthesenumerousdistinctionswouldnotnecessarilyimprovethe
model,however,whilemakingitverymuchhardertocomprehend.
ThisprobablymakesWorld3somewhatoptimistic.Ithasnomilitarysector
todraincapitalandresourcesfromtheproductiveeconomy.Ithasnowars
tokillpeople,destroycapital,wastelands,orgeneratepollution.Ithasno
ethnicstrife,nocorruption,nofloods,earthquakes,nuclearaccidents,orAIDS
epidemics.Themodelthusrepresentstheultimatelimitsfor‘therealworld’.
APPENDIX 2: Equilibrium Run
Scenario 9: The world seeks a stable population and stable per capita industrial output and adds pollution, resource and agricultural technologies from 2002
Inthisscenariopopulationgrowthandindustrialoutputarestabilisedandtechnologiesareimplementedtoreducepollution,conserveresources,improveagriculturalyields,andprotectfarmland.Theresultingsocietyissustainable:nearly8billionpeople
enjoyahighlevelofwelfareandhaveasteadilydecliningecologicalfootprint.
Executive Secretary of the UNFCCCTo Globe International, Club of Rome, London House of Commons, January 26, 2009
APPENDIX 3: Speech by Yvo de Boer
“It is not often that a generation is offered a chance to change the world for the better. But only a few times in the entire record of
humanity has a generation had a chance to change the world for good. We have that chance now… to shift decisively towards the
low-emission, resource-efficient, financially stable and equitable path that offers the only sustainable alternative to a future of
never-ending crises.
It is no coincidence that this year the world must reach an ambitious, ratifiable agreement to prevent dangerous climate change
just as nations are fighting to prevent the worst globalised depression in living memory. Our financial and economic crisis was the
result of living beyond our means, looking for short-term reward, conveniently ignoring the consequences. Climate change, we now
know, is the result of living beyond our planet’s capacity to provide the kind of environment without which our civilisations would
die. Oil, gas, coal, food and metal prices may look low now, but precarious imbalances in future supply and demand promise
soaring prices once more at signs of recovery.
In cause and effect, these crises are linked. The high-emission, resource-intensive, debt-driven economic model is dying.
Attempts to revive it along the same old lines will succeed only in restoring a living corpse. ...
...At the height of the Great Depression in the 1930s, the new US President Franklin D. Roosevelt focused the will of his own nation
in his inaugural address by promising that: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” That is not now the case. We have a
climate change shadow, growing darker with every passing year, that has the potential to draw a line under the future of humanity.
What is now true is that the only thing we have to fear is the fear to act.”