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Biodiversity in Thailand
BIODIVERSITY LOSS IN THAILANDFROM GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Yongyut TrisuratFaculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University
Bangkok, ThailandIn Collaboration With
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)
Biodiversity in ThailandBiodiversity loss →Leveling out = homogenization process
“Fishing down the foodweb(Pauly, 2001)”
Hig
h ab
unda
nce
Low
abu
ndan
ce
Biodiversity in ThailandHuman development (HDI) & Biodiversity (NCI)
Biodiversity in Thailand
Time
Bio
dive
rsity
Habitat Destruction
Exotic Species
exploitation of land use
Pollution
FragmentationClimatic changes
Sustainable managementRegeneration
Measures ofConservation
Protectedareas
100%
0%
Causes of Biodiversity Loss
1. Species-richness in proportion to surface area by country, biogeographical region2. Species-richness by 10 main EUNIS habitat types3. Tree species composition in forests4. Changes in species composition in wetlands5. Endemic species richness in proportion to surface area by biogeographical region6. Trends ofd species groups (carnivores, raptors, geese, species of economic interest)7. Trends of selection of representative species associated with different ecosystems8. Number of threatened taxa occuring at different geographical levels9. Number of globally threatened species endemic to Europe10. Percentage of globally threatened species per biogeographical region11. Percentage of European threatened species per biogeographical region12. Threatened forest species13. Forest genetic resources14. Wild relatives of cultivated plants15. Crops and breed genetic diversity16. Threats in and around wetland sites17. Landscape-level spatial pattern of forest cover18. Diversity of linear features and doiversity of crops in farmlands19. Percentage of introduced species that have become invasive per biogeographical region20. Spread of invasive selected species over time21. Introduces tree species22. Introduces species in fresh surface waters 23. Introduces species in marine and coastal waters24. Proportion of globally threatend species 25. Proportion of globally threatened fauna species protected by European instruments (EC Directives and Bern Convention)26. Proportion of known species present in Europe protected by European instruments27. Proportion of species only present in Europe protected by European instruments28. Progress in implementation of action plans for globally threatened species29. Funds spent through LIFE Nature projects for species and habitats30. Total area of wetlands (and other ecosystems types) reclaimed by country, biogeographic region, Europe31. Cumulated area of sites over time under international conventions and initiatives 32. Cumulated area of sites proposed over time under EU Directives33. Proportion of sites under EU Directives already protected under national instruments34. Cumulated area of national designated areas over time in Pan-Europe35. Species diversity in designated areas36. Bird species distributions and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) coverage37. Range of Species of European Interest or Threatened Species present in designated areas38. Trends of selected species population within and outside designated areas39. Percentage (in surface area) of Annex I habitat-type included in potential Sites of Community Interest (pSCIs)40. Change (in surface area) of Annex I habitat-type included in pSCIs41. Range of Habitats of European Interest present in designated areas42. Percentage of main activities reported in pSCIs43. Agricultural land in designated areas44. Land cover changes in the surroundings of designated areas45. Deadwood46. Number of individuals per main fauna species group killed on roads per length per year47. Number of fauna passages per infrastructure length unit48. Financial investment for fauna passages
ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY, GOODS AND SERVICES
• Marine trophic index • Connectivity/fragmentation of
ecosystems • Water quality in aquatic ecosystems • •
SUSTAINABLE USE • Area of ecosystems under
sustainable management Forest Agriculture Fishery Aquaculture
• Ecological footprint •
STATUS AND TRENDS OF COMPONENTS OF BIOVERSITY
• Trends in extent of selected biomes, ecosystems, habitats
• Coverage of protected areas • Trends in abundance and
distribution of selected species • Change in status of threatened
and/or protected species • Trends in genetic diversity of
domesticated animals, cultivated plants, fish species of major socioeconomic importance
THREATS TO BIODIVERSITY • Nitrogen deposition • Numbers and costs of invasive
alien species • Impact of climate change • •
Biodiversity
Red List Index
Species Assemblage Trend Index
Pressure indexNatural Capital Index
Aggregation: composite indicators for overview
Living Planet Index
Biodiversity Intactness Index
MSA= Mean abundance of original species relative to pristine (original stage)
Biodiversity Indices
Biodiversity in Thailand
Design of the model (P-S-R)
Input:
systemdescribers
pressures
Env. conditions
State / trendBiodiversity
Dose-response
model
Ecosystemfunctions / poverty
Policy Actions
Biodiversity ( MSA)
100%
0%
Biodiversity Loss at Global Level (GLOBIO 3 Model)
Global Biodiversity Model (GLOBIO 3)
Biodiversity loss per biome - World
Polar, tundradesert, boreal
Temperate and tropicalgrasslands& forests
Biodiversity in Thailand
Existing Forest Cover by Region in Thailand, 1961-2000
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
1961
1976
1982
1988
1991
1995
2000
Year
% o
f tot
al c
ount
ry
area
NorthEastNortheastCentralSouthTotal
Biodiversity in ThailandKey Policy Questions?
What is the current situation of biodiversityin each ecosystem?What is the future situation (2050)?What are the main pressure factors?What needs to be done to improve the model?
Implications of GLOBIO 3 to National Level
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model Framework
GLC 2000 IMAGE GLOBIO 2
Land use
Nitrogen Climate Roads/Rails
Land-useeffect
Nitrogeneffect
Climateeffect
patch sizeeffect
Infrastructureeffect
MSA
Input data Pressure indicators
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
prim
ary
fore
st
sele
ctiv
elo
ggin
g
seco
ndar
yfo
rest
agro
fore
stry
plan
tatio
ns
crop
land
past
ure
mea
n sp
ecie
s ab
unda
nce
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
primary pasture cropland
mea
n sp
ecie
s ab
unda
nce
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0 5 10 15 20
N g.m-2
spec
ies
rich
nes
ratio
Land use change
climateNitrogen deposition
forests grasslands
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0
Temperature change (degrees)
mea
n ar
ea re
duct
ion
grasslandsgrasslandsforests
forests
tundratundra
infrastructurePatch size dependence
0102030405060708090
100
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
minimum area requirement
perc
enta
ge o
f spe
cies
birdsmammals
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
distance to roads
mea
n sp
ecie
s ab
unda
nce
grasslands, deserts, wetlandsboreal and temperate foreststropical forests and tundra
Fragmentation and Infrastructure
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model Framework
State of the art knowledge140 publications, Species richness, Abundances
Africa: 24; Asia: 36; Europe: 21; North America: 23; South America: 27; Oceania: 7
62 tropical forests; 31 other forests; 17 grasslands; 9 shrublands; 5 deserts
Ca. 5700 species: 2100 plant species, 1700 insects, 1300 birds, 150 other vertebrates
Land-use intensities
- Unaltered forest
- Low impact logging
- Plantation forest
- Intensive grazing
- Intensive agriculture
0.7
0.4
0.10.1
1.0
Associated MSA
- Unused = 1.0
- Lightly used = 0.7
- Planted = 0.4
- High ext. inputs = 0.1(MSA = mean species abundance)
Press
- Land Use
- Agriculture
- Infrastructure
- Fragmentation
- Fires
0.4
0.10.1
1.0
0.7
0.4
Total NCI = 0.1 x 0.7 x 0.4….
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model Framework
0.1Build-up areasArtificial surfaces0.1Intensive agriculture
0.3Low input agricultureCultivated and managed areas
0.5AgroforestryMosaic: cropland/forest0.1Man-made pasture0.7Livestock grazing1.0
Primary grassland and shrublandShrubs and grassland
0.2Forest plantation0.5Secondary forest0.7
Slightly disturbed or managed forest
1.0Primary vegetationForest
1.0Deserts and alpine forestBare areas1.0Snow or iceSnow and ice
MSALUSub-classGLC 2000 Class (FAO/UNEP)
Land Use (Biggs, 2005)
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model Framework
-0.034Tropical forest-0.039Tropical woodland-0.093Savannah
0.1740.129Scrubland-0.036Hot desert
0.1930.098Grassland and steppe0.1390.052Warm mixed forest0.1090.100Temperate deciduous forest0.1010.045Temperate mixed forest0.0800.168Cool conifer forest0.0790.043Boreal forest0.0510.284Wooded tundra0.0700.154Tundra0.0500.023Ice
Slope (◦C-1)ImageBiome
MSACC = 1 – Slope * ΔTemperature
Climate Change (EUROMOVE – Bakkenes et al, 2006)
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model Framework
Shrubs and grasslandMSAN = 0.8 - 0.08 In (NE)Grassland
ForestMSAN = 0.8 - 0.14 In (NE)Boreal coniferous forest
Snow and iceMSAN = 0.9 - 0.005 NE
Arctic-alpine ecosystem
GCL 200 classesEquationEcosystem
N deposition (Bobbink, 2004; Bouwman et al., 2004)
N depositionexceeding the critical load levelapplies only to natural land not to cropland
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model FrameworkInfrastructure (UNEP, 2001: 300 papers)
>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Ice and snow>10.03.0-10.01.0-3.00.0-1.0Arctic tundra>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Wetland>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5
Desert and semi desert
>10.03.0-10.01.0-3.00.0-1.0Tropical forest>3.00.9-3.00.3-0.90.0-0.3
Temperate deciduous forest
>3.00.9-3.00.3-0.90.0-0.3Boreal forest>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Grassland>5.01.5-5.00.5-1.50.0-0.5Cropland
No impact (MSAI = 1.00)
Low impact (MSAI = 0.90)
Medium impact (MSAI = 0.75)
High impact (MSAI = 0.50)Vegetation cover
Zone (0.0-0.5 km) along infrastructure
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model FrameworkFragmentation (Bouwan et al.,
2002; Woodroffe and Ginsberg, 1998)
1.00>100000.951000-100000.85100-10000.7510-1000.551-10MSAFArea (km2)
Smaller area for plant species
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3: Sources of Data
Potential veg.:BIOME’s as historical range dataLand use: Forest type 2000 (DNP) reclassified to
Global Land Cover (GLC 2000)Patch size: Forestry type map & road networkInfrastrucure: Road network (OEPP)
Climate change: Mean temp. (IMAGE)Nitrogen: Exceedance of the critical load of
N deposition (IMAGE)
Forest and Agriculture Management:extensive, intensive and irrigated agr.(national statistic data)
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Model Framework
MSA = MSALUC * MSACC * MSAN * MSAI * MSAF
MSA= Mean abundance of original species relativeto pristine (original stage)
MSALUC = Remaining MSA for Land use changeMSACC = Remaining MSA for Climate changeMSAN = Remaining MSA for Nitrogen pollutionMSAI = Remaining MSA for InfrastructureMSAF = Remaining MSA for Fragmentation
0.5 * 0.5 degree at global11 km * 11 km & 1 km * 1 km (exercise)
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3 Framework
Dbase2Access
Calculate Infrastructure per UniqueCell
Calculate Area Plantation And Timber Forest
Calculate Area Irrigated And Intensive Agriculture
Replace Areas for Agriculture and Forestry
Calculate Biodiversity values per Cell GLC
Create biodiversity asciigrid
BiodiversityValues
Time delayvalues
ClimateRegression
Values
Dbase2Access
Set Corrections On Biodiversity Per Unique Cell
Calculate Infrastructure Correction On Biodiversity
Impact classes
Calculate N-Depostion Correction On Biodiversity
N-DepositionCorrection onBiodiversity p~
Irrigated andIntensiveAgricultural Ar~
Area PlantationAnd TimberForest per Uni~
Calculate N Exceeding Classes per UniqueCell
Combine Unique Cells Regions Biomes GLCT and LandArea
N Exceedingper UniqueCell
dBase
Infrastructureper UniqueCell
Access
Grid Biomesscenario
fragmentation
Add fragmenation effect
N Exceedingper UniqueCell
Access
Calculate Biodiversity Per Unique Cell
CorrectedBiodiversityAsciigrid
Biodiversity perUU
GridN-deposition
Irrigated andIntensiveAgricultural Fr~
Infrastructureper UniqueCell
dBase
Biodiversity perUnique cell
Grid CriticalLoad N
Temperaturechange
Grid Area LandImageCells
GridInfrastructure
Sequential Grid Grid ImageRegions
Protected AreaTable
GLC Classes
CropArea
Forest_Plantation_Timberregim
e_Fraction
Infra correctionon Biodiversity
ScenarioUnique CellRegion Biome~
ScenarioUnique Cell
Biodiversity perUnique Cell
GLC
GLC fractionPer RegionBiome GLCT ~
LandArea perUniqueCellRegion Biome~
Unique CellRegion BiomesGLCT Combi ~
Calculate Scenario GLCArea Per Unique Cell Region Biome GLCT Combi
GLC Area perUnique CellRegion Biome~
corrected areawith IMAGEcrop area per ~
Correct Crop Area (GLC 16 class) with total region crop area
GLCT Imagescenario
LandArea perUniqueCellRegion Biome~
Dbase2Access
Landcover perUnique Cell
Access
Land Cover
Biomes
Crop area
Grazing area
Temperature
N-deposition
(GDP)
ArisFlow
Biodiversity in ThailandGLOBIO 3: Sources of Data
OEPP
DNP (2000)
Biodiversity in ThailandResults Thailand
Biodiversity in ThailandResults
0.60 0.620.71
0.580.51
0.45 0.47 0.51
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80
Warm mixed Grassland Desert Scrub Savannah Tropicalwoodland
Tropicalforest
Medit. Shrub
Biomes
Rem
aini
ng M
S
Remaining MSA = 0.57
Biodiversity in ThailandTrends from Global Perspective1970
20002030
Biodiversity in ThailandResults
21%
0%
2%
0%
0%
4%
15%
58%
Red. by agriculture
Red. by grazing
Red.by forestry
Red. by built up
Red. by nitrogen
Red.by climate
Red.by infra/fragment.
Remaining biodiversity
Biodiversity in ThailandResults
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Warmmixed
Grassland Desert Scrub Savannah Tropicalwoodland
Tropicalforest
Medit.Shrub
% M
SA
Red. By agriculture Red. by grazing Red. by forestry Red.by build up
Red.by nitrogen Red.by climate Red.by infra/fragment Remaining biodiversity
Biodiversity in ThailandResults
Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity ModelingConclusions
The remaining MSA = 0.57; desert - highest (0.71); tropical woodland lowest (0.45)
The MSA will continue to decline rapidly in the future.
Encoachment for agriculture is the main pressure followed by infra/fragmenation.
Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity ModelingApplications
MSA is universal indicator to quantify biodiversity loss and pressure factors
Has potential for GAP Analysis of protectedarea system plan
Serve a base for enhancing regional cooperations
Biodiversity in Thailand
Mesoamerica Ecoregion Corridor
Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity Modeling
1 km2/1 ha (100 x 100 m)Sequential grid - 0.1‘ (11
x 11 km2)/pixcel resolution -1 km2
Information Inputs
ArcGIS and ArcView, etcArisFlow
River basin/admin unitNational scale (Region)
UTMLat/Long
Database Management/Analysis Tools
Nat. macroeconomic
Nat. demography census/survey IMAGE
1) Historical vegetation map/Ecoregion2) Plant and wildlife (predicting species niche
distribution)Biome
Nat. Land use/land cover classes (1:50,000)GLC2000
ThailandGlobal
Biodiversity in ThailandRefine Biodiversity Modeling
Fertilizer inputNitrogen deposition
IUCN/national categories/intensityProtected area
Climate (temp. rain, max-min-range)Climate (mean T)
Overgrazing, forest fire, poverty, poaching, etc.
Patch size, isolation and shapePatch size effect
Need to integrate other pressures at national level –poverty, forest fire, etc
Projected land-use change (IMAGE) derived from global economy
Pressures/vulnerabilitiesPressures
Biodiversity in Thailand
THANK YOU&
SAWASDEE