Canada Merchandise Trade – Exports and Imports – February 2017PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGAAPRIL 4, 2017

Agenda• Graph (Exports and Imports)• Change in Exports (February 2017 vs January 2017)• Trade Imbalance• Quotes

Exports and Imports

• Stats Canada

Monthly over Month Change

• Stats Canada

Comment:• Oil Energy

exports grew in February 2017. The growth was 779M more per day

• Only a few sectors seen less sales per day for February 2017 as compare to January 2017

Trade imbalance

• Stats Canada

Trade Imbalance

• Stats Canada

Trade Imbalance by Country

• Stats Canada

Quotes

National Bank of Canada

• National Bank of Canada Economics

Scotiabank - Economics

• Scotiabank Economics – April 4, 2017

• This is shaping up to be an awful quarter for net trade’s contributions to GDP growth. That serves as a big blow to optimism that crept into the market via Friday’s January GDP figures. The fact that net trade is so weak again plays against any risk of a bias shift at the BoC this year and more in favour of our view that it will remain on pause for a long time yet.

• Merchandise export volumes are tracking a drop of 2.6% q/q in seasonally adjusted and annualized terms based on the Q4 hand-off and the first two-thirds of Q1 while assuming a flat March in order to focus upon the effects of what we know so far. Merchandise import volumes are tracking a gain of 15.1% using the same methodology. Both exports and imports are essentially reversing the prior quarter’s changes almost to the exact nickel as export volumes had been up 2.7% in Q4 and import volumes were down 15.7% according to the latest revised numbers.

BMO – Economics

• BMO – Economics – April 4, 2017

This is a disappointing report and appears to wipe out the upside risk to our Q1 GDP call of 3.5%...and could even introduce some downside. After a huge January for the Canadian economy, it looks as though we could be in for some payback in the February data. Even so, this report is no reason to turn downbeat on Canada, with good momentum in so many indicators pointing to a strong to start 2017BMO Economist – April 4, 2017

Export Development Corporation

• EDC – April 4, 2017

Export Development Corporation

• EDC – April 4, 2017