Climate, energy and the Climate, energy and the imperatives of equity and imperatives of equity and

growthgrowth

Centre for Science and Centre for Science and EnvironmentEnvironment

April 20, 2007April 20, 2007

Responsibility for COResponsibility for CO22 Emissions and Climate Emissions and Climate ChangeChange

Source; Jim Source; Jim HansenHansen

Equivalence-Adjusted Per Capita Eco- Footprints of Selected Countries (2001 Data)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Country

Eco-

Foot

prin

t (he

ctar

es)

Source; Bill Source; Bill ReesRees

Carbon emissions are linked to growth. Climate negotiations are negotiations about the economy.

Growth in GDP versus growth in SO2 and CO2 in the Netherlands

Energy efficiency alone is not Energy efficiency alone is not

the answerthe answer Global carbon emissions under an energy efficient fossil fuel Global carbon emissions under an energy efficient fossil fuel

scenario (gtC per year)scenario (gtC per year)

1. To deal with global warming, action has to be ecologically effective to prevent climate change, economically effective, and, socially just and equitous in sharing action as there is

huge disparity in per capita emissions

Equity is a pre-requisite because any agreement that is not seen as

fair or just will be a non-agreement.

2. But the Kyoto Protocol only focuses on creating a global carbon

market. Nobody knows what will be the impact of this creative

carbon accounting. The focus of all industrialised countries so far

has been to take on the least cost options, by buying the cheapest

‘emission credits’ from developing countries

Cost of US Emissions Reductions: Domestic action vs Action through Flexmex

Cost of reduction When emissions reductions obtained through:

US $14-20 tc Flexmex with developing countries

US $30-50tc Flexmex with Eastern European countries

US $125 tc US domestic action

Sharing a tight budgetSharing a tight budget

IPCC says the world needs to stabilise at 450 IPCC says the world needs to stabilise at 450 ppm to have the least possible impacts. ppm to have the least possible impacts.

In this case, cumulative GHG emissions have In this case, cumulative GHG emissions have to be limited to about 600-800 billion tonnes of to be limited to about 600-800 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent between now and the end carbon equivalent between now and the end of the 21st century. of the 21st century. And we need to share And we need to share this budget equitably across the world. this budget equitably across the world.

We need to reduce our total emissions We need to reduce our total emissions by 60 by 60 per cent of the current emissions by the per cent of the current emissions by the end of the 21st century. end of the 21st century.

Freezing global inequality Freezing global inequality

Source: ALOK RAWAT 2004, UNEP WORKSHOP ON FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND AUTOMOTIVE CO AUTOMOTIVE CO2 REDUCTION POLICIES REDUCTION POLICIES, OCTOBER 13, 2004, China

1 US citizen =1 US citizen =

107 Bangladeshis107 Bangladeshis 134 Bhutanese134 Bhutanese 19 Indians19 Indians 269 Nepalese269 Nepalese Climate change will demand cooperation Climate change will demand cooperation

between nations. This will not be between nations. This will not be possible without a sense of fair play and possible without a sense of fair play and equity. The South needs to secure its equity. The South needs to secure its ecological space.ecological space.

Who should bear the burden?Who should bear the burden?

Historically and currently, per capita Historically and currently, per capita emisssions from developed countries emisssions from developed countries are responsible for as much as 80 per are responsible for as much as 80 per cent of COcent of CO22 emissions emissions

““Common but differentiated Common but differentiated responsibility” instead of polluter pays responsibility” instead of polluter pays principleprinciple

Common but differentiated responsibilityCommon but differentiated responsibility

Relative Shares Annex 1 nations (%)

Non-Annex 1 nations (%)

Relative share of annual carbon dioxide emissions in 1990

75 25

Relative share of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in 1990

79 21

Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 1990

88 12

Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2010

82 18

Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2020

79 21

Source: UNFCCC 1997, Implementation of the Berlin Mandate, Additional Proposals from Parties. Addendum.

Atmosphere is a global Atmosphere is a global commoncommon

An equitable arrangement should include....An equitable arrangement should include.... Per capita entitlements provide the framework Per capita entitlements provide the framework

for an effective climate regime. for an effective climate regime. Entitlements built Entitlements built on per capita emissions.on per capita emissions.

Trading allowed only after entitlements have been Trading allowed only after entitlements have been fixedfixed

Those not using the atmosphere can sell their Those not using the atmosphere can sell their unused share. This trading system will provide unused share. This trading system will provide the incentive to move towards zero-emission the incentive to move towards zero-emission systems. systems.

We see the rights as a tool to make a transition We see the rights as a tool to make a transition to clean energy. to clean energy.

A convergence principle towards a just and sustainable A convergence principle towards a just and sustainable normnorm

Trading must have two key principles:

It must be done in an equitable manner.We must

have equitable per capita entitlements and a clear

strategy for contraction and convergence. We must

set an upper limit for greenhouse gas

concentrations.

It must be linked to non-carbon or zero-carbon

energy.

The (Cheap) The (Cheap) Development MechanismDevelopment Mechanism

The Clean (Cheap) Development Mechanism could cost us the

earth

Instead of moving the world out of fossil fuel, CDM could end up

subsidising the carbon energy economy, and locking out the

non-carbon energy economy;

CDM focuses on the low-hanging fruit, which are all in the fossil

fuel sector. Improving energy efficiency has never reduced

overall energy consumption. With Kyoto Protocol the world will not

be able to reduce its gross carbon emissions below the 1990 levels,

which in itself are 2-3 times higher than those considered to be

environmentally sustainable

Cheap Cheap Deal for IndiaDeal for India

CDM was designed to help developing countries achieve

sustainable development and assist developed countries meet

emissions reduction target.

But CDM project are not rooted in national policies and goals. Over

50 % of the CERs sold are to harvest fugitive gases – HFC – 23, and

N2O – from industry. (Eg. GCL that produces HCFC 22 and gets rid

of HFC 23, a by product – can sell 3 million CERs a year). Private sector driven. Minimises government’s role Public utilities – bus service, community projects on renewable

energy projects etc rarely qualify Complicated clause of additionality – whatever government does as

a matter of policy does not qualify for CDM – perverse incentive to

keep polluting..

Who bears the future Who bears the future costs?costs?

Once low cost options are exhausted in Once low cost options are exhausted in developing countries and only more developing countries and only more expensive options are left the very future expensive options are left the very future of CDM and its rationale disappears of CDM and its rationale disappears because then the Developed countries because then the Developed countries will have no interest in a flexibility will have no interest in a flexibility mechanism like the CDM. mechanism like the CDM.

Climate Change - Effect on Climate Change - Effect on developing countriesdeveloping countries

Developing countries will be twice more Developing countries will be twice more vulnerable than developed countriesvulnerable than developed countries

If CO2 levels double,If CO2 levels double,

– Cost to developed countries 1-2% of Cost to developed countries 1-2% of GDPGDP

– Cost to developing countries 2-9% of Cost to developing countries 2-9% of GDPGDP

Possible Effects on IndiaPossible Effects on India

The monsoons could be affected, either The monsoons could be affected, either creating more droughts or floodscreating more droughts or floods

Maldives and Bangladesh could be Maldives and Bangladesh could be affected by the melting of the polar affected by the melting of the polar snow caps, and this would have an snow caps, and this would have an indirect effect on India indirect effect on India

Vulnerability: Emerging evidence Vulnerability: Emerging evidence pool in Indiapool in India

Strange local climatic changes noticed in IndiaStrange local climatic changes noticed in India Orissa coast in eastern India: Orissa coast in eastern India: 1834 – 1926: 1834 – 1926:

average interval of flood – 3.84 years. 1926 – average interval of flood – 3.84 years. 1926 – 1955: 10 year frequency; 1961-2000 – flood has 1955: 10 year frequency; 1961-2000 – flood has become an annual affair. become an annual affair.

More districts drought prone. 3 districts in 1950s to More districts drought prone. 3 districts in 1950s to 25 districts in 1990s. 25 districts in 1990s.

Economic disaster:Economic disaster: In 30 years average annual In 30 years average annual loss due to disaster has gone up by 27 times. loss due to disaster has gone up by 27 times. (Annual property loss due to disaster)(Annual property loss due to disaster)

80% of state’s population depend on climate 80% of state’s population depend on climate sensitive agriculture and forestry sectors. sensitive agriculture and forestry sectors.

HealthHealth: 22% of country’s malaria cases. 50% of : 22% of country’s malaria cases. 50% of malaria related deathsmalaria related deaths

Challenges for the South

Most environmental problems lie in the development paradigm created by the North and which it is spreading to the South. North has to show leadership by changing its ways so that all of us can learn. But global environmental negotiations don't reflect this. The negotiations do not even address the problem of the current development paradigm.

Building its scientific capacity: The science based agenda of negotiations such as those on climate change put the developing countries, with limited scientific capacities at a disadvantage. Such an agenda, decided by the science-rich North, is also likely to ignore the environmental concerns of the poor.

Building its negotiating capacity so that it participates in the initial rule building

Spot light: China and IndiaSpot light: China and India

(Source) DOE (2005)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000 2010 2015 2020 2025

その他途上国

中 国

Ⅰ附属書 国（米を除く）

米 国

インド

ブラジル

途 上 国

先進国

Other Non-AnnexⅠ

Brazil

India

China

Annex ( Excluding US)Ⅰ

US

（M

t-C

O2

）

DevelopingCountries

(Non-Annex )Ⅰ

DevelopedCountries(Annex )Ⅰ

Outlook of CO2 emission increase from 2000

CO2 emissions from developing countries will increase dramatically. By 2020-2030, emissions from developing countries will surpass those from developed countries,

and in 2100, it will be three times.

What is everyone saying?

56%

45% 42% 39% 36%15%

10%10%

9%9%

7%

12%

13%

14%

15%

12%

18%

19%

20%

21%

4%

4%

5%

5%

6%

1%

4%

4%

5%

5%

4%

5%

5%

6%

7%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1971 2002 2010 2020 2030

(Oil conversion 1 mil ton)

5,536

10,345

12,194

14,404

16,487

OECD(excluding Japan and S. Korea)

Former Soviet Union

China

Asia (including Japan and S. Korea)

Central and South Americas

Middle East

Africa

（Source）IEA　 World Energy Outlook 2004

56%

45% 42% 39% 36%15%

10%10%

9%9%

7%

12%

13%

14%

15%

12%

18%

19%

20%

21%

4%

4%

5%

5%

6%

1%

4%

4%

5%

5%

4%

5%

5%

6%

7%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1971 2002 2010 2020 2030

(Oil conversion 1 mil ton)

5,536

10,345

12,194

14,404

16,487

OECD(excluding Japan and S. Korea)

Former Soviet Union

China

Asia (including Japan and S. Korea)

Central and South Americas

Middle East

Africa

（Source）IEA　 World Energy Outlook 2004

Perspective of world energy demands On the demand side, rapid increase and continued growth of global energy demand is

predicted, One of the main factors of energy demand is increase of fuel demand in the transport

sector.

1990 1999 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Million Barrels/Day Oil Equivalent

Other

Bunker

Jet Fuel

Diesel

Gasoline

Source: EIA/DOE (2001)

Recent and Projected World Transportation Fuel Demand

Transportation is the Fastest Growing CO2 Emissions Source

Making connection between local and global emissions for effective action for effective action

Vehicle Climate Change Emission SourcesVehicle Climate Change Emission Sources

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

CO2

CO2

HFC

A/C compressorEngine Transmission

Black Carbon?Ozone

Secondary Transformations CanBe Subtle But Very Significant! Urban Air Pollution

& GlobalWarming Are Linked

HC + NOx Lead To Regional Ozone ButAlso to Background Hemispheric Ozone

• CO Becomes CO2 but Consumes OHRadicals Along the Way Increasing CH4

Diesel PM Increases PM10 & PM2.5 &Ultrafine PM But Also Black Carbon

Carbon DioxideMethane

ChlorofluorocarbonsNitrous Oxide

OzoneBlack Carbon

Refelective AerosolsCloud Droplet Changes

Forcing Agent

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Watts Per Square Meter

Source: Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Climate Forcings

Aerosol Effects AreNot Known Accurately

Recent evidence indicatesReducing 1 kg of BC is equalTo reducing 2.5 tons of CO2

CO2 Is Not The Whole StoryCO2 Is Not The Whole Story

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Normalized to 2000

THC

CO

NOx

PM

N2O

CH4

HFC

OC

Vehicle Emissions Trends(Business As Usual Scenario)

While Europe(& Japan)Lead on CO2,The EU’sVery WeakDiesel LimitsHurt Globally

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Normalized to 2000

THC

CO

NOx

PM

N2O

CH4

HFC

OC

Vehicle Emissions Trends(Aggressive Scenario)

TougherStandards inThe EU &More RapidAdoption ByOther Countries(i.e., China,India) CouldGreatlyImprove Trends

Comparison of fleet average GHG emission standards Comparison of fleet average GHG emission standards standardized by standardized by

gCOgCO22/km for new light-duty vehicles/km for new light-duty vehicles

EU

California

US

Japan

Australia

Canada

China

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

g C

O2

/km

-

Co

nve

rte

d t

o N

ED

C T

est

Cyc

le

Source: Feng An, Sauer

Share of CO2 emissions from transport of different

regions as a percent to the total global transport CO2

emissions*37

5

20

2 2 2

0

34

5

18

6

2 3 3

33

4

16

8

2 3 3

29

3

13 14

3 3 2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

US JAPAN EU CHINA INDIA BRAZIL RUSSIA% s

hare

of c

ount

ries

in g

loba

l CO

2 em

issi

ons

from

tr

ansp

ort

1990

2004

2015

2030

* Reference case only** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only. Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006

Share of transport CO2 emissions as a percent to the total CO2 emissions

from oil* in each regions (in %)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

WORLD US JAPAN EU CHINA INDIA BRAZIL RUSSIA

%

2004

2015

2030

* Reference case only** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only.

Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006

Economic Growth Can Coexist with Clean Air and Economic Growth Can Coexist with Clean Air and Low Energy Consumption. Can we de-link heat Low Energy Consumption. Can we de-link heat

trapping gases as well? trapping gases as well?

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Per

cent

age

Cha

nge

(199

8 B

ase

Year

)

Per capita income

NOx

Vehicles

Population

PM10

SOx

CO

Can India even begin to see this trend?

Delhi: Trend in ambient SO2 and CO de-linked from economic growth. PM10 stabilised. NOx increasing with growth spurt

Source: CSESource: CSE

Po

llu

tio

n

Per-Capita GDP“The Kuznets Curve”

The message: LeapfrogThe message: LeapfrogAvoid the polluting pathways of others. Adopt Avoid the polluting pathways of others. Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and an alternative path that is precautionary and

preventivepreventive

Business As Usual

Alternative Path Of Progress