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Global Research Limited
09th,October
Report Report COMEX COMEX
Global Research Limited
2 www.capitalvia.com
DATE TIME: IST DATA PRV EXP
09.10.13
Global Economic Data
09th October,2013
IMPACT
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Member Evans Speaks 7:30 P.M
Energy Information Administration (latest release)Source
Usual Effect
Frequency
FF Notes
Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Measures
Why TradersCare
Also Called
It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many
industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
09.10.13 Crude Oil Inventories8:00 P.M MEDIUM5.5M 0.9M
09.10.13 10-y Bond Auction 10:31 P.M
09.10.13 FOMC Meeting Minutes11:30 P.M STRONG
MEDIUM2.95/2.9
Next Release Oct 16, 2013
Global Research Limited
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09th October,2013
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Federal Reserve (latest release)Source
Usual Effect
Frequency
Next Release Nov 21, 2013
Why TradersCare
It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the
economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates;
More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Scheduled 8 times per year, 3 weeks after the Federal Funds Rate is announced;
Acro ExpandFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
10-y Bond Auction
Treasury Direct (latest release)Source
Usual Effect
Frequency
Next Release
Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;
Nov 07, 2013
Measures
FF Notes
Why TradersCare
Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format -
the first number is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is the bid-to-
cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted);
Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook
on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which
can be used to gauge investor confidence;
No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications;
Conducted monthly;
Also CalledTreasury Auction, Note Auction;
Global Research Limited
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09th October,2013
Ÿ
ŸGold closed higher today at 1324. Support is at the recent low of 1277 from October 2. Resistance is at the recent high of 1375
from September 19. We are currently neutral, but would view it as a positive development if gold holds key support at 1273.
Ÿ
Gold was higher today as equities continued to slide while U.S. lawmakers remain deadlocked over the government
shutdown and the debt ceiling debate. Gold opened at 1318.50/1319.50, touched a low of 1316.50/1317.50 before jumping to
a session high of 1329.00/1330.00 around midmorning. The metal closed at 1324.50/1325.50.
Gold rose as U.S. government shutdown dragged on and a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling loomed.
ŸThe United States faces an Oct. 17 deadline to raise its $16.7 trillion debt limit.
ŸThe budget impasse that has shut down parts of the U.S. government entered its second week and still looked set to continue.
Ÿ Silver also traded higher on the day. After trading sideways overnight, silver opened the week at 21.89/21.94. Price
bottomed at 21.88/21.93 early on, before advancing to a high of 22.45/22.50 as investors fled to safety. The metal
closed the day near the high, at 22.35/22.40.
Ÿ Silver closed higher today at 22.35, breaking through congestion in the low 22's to reach a new 2 week high. Price
action since the June 28th low at 18.23 is consistent with silver having formed a bottom; however, it is too early to
make this conclusion. Resistance is at the recent high of 23.42 from September 19th. Support is at the recent low (from
October 1) at 20.62.
ŸThe gold-silver ratio had a bearish move today, closing much lower at 59.28. The next support is 58.86, which is the
50% retracement of the November to August uptrend. We are bearish the ratio, targeting a full retracement to 57.09, the
low from August 2013.
ŸSilver fluctuated near highs as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default.
ŸInvestors continued to monitor negotiations over a U.S. budget impasse that has kept the federal government shut
down since October 1.
ŸTTraders will be looking ahead to Wednesday's minutes of the Fed's most recent policy-setting meeting for further
clues
Gold
Silver
Global Research Limited
09th October,2013
4 www.capitalvia.com
Ÿ On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery rose 0.15% to USD103.65 per
barrel in Asian trading Wednesday. The November contract settled higher by 0.45% at USD103.49 per barrel on Tuesday.
Ÿ Analysts expected gasoline supplies to increase 1.3 million barrels and expected a drop of 1.9 million barrels in
distillates. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to release its weekly supply report despite the shutdown
later today.
ŸOil may also be getting a lift on media reports that President Barrack Obama will nominate Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman
Janet Yellen to lead the U.S. central bank when Chairman Ben Bernanke retires early next year.
ŸOil futures traded modestly higher during Wednesday's Asian session despite data from the American Petroleum Institute that
showed an increase in inventories in the U.S. last week.
ŸCrude rose as investors looked ahead to the release of key U.S. weekly supply data amid ongoing uncertainty over the U.S.
government shutdown
ŸThe supply of North Sea crude that underpins the benchmark is set to reach a 2013 high in November
ŸToday crude oil inventories: EXP: 0.9M PREV: 5.5M. Actual is at 8.00PM
ŸOn the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.311 a pound during
European morning trade, up 0.45%.
Copper prices held in a range between USD3.287 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.314 a pound. The December contract
settled 0.14% lower at USD3.296 a pound on Monday.
ŸCopper prices were likely to find support at USD3.258 a pound, the low from October 4 and resistance at USD3.324 a pound, the high from
October 3.
ŸCopper futures edged higher on Tuesday, as investors speculated demand for the red metal will pick up as markets in mainland China re-
opened following a week-long holiday.
ŸCopper gained as investors speculated demand will pick up as markets in mainland China re-opened following a week-long holiday.
ŸChile will produce about 5.7 million tonnes of copper this year, an almost 5 percent increase on last year and a historic high.
ŸThe IMF trimmed its projections for global economic growth, citing deteriorating growth prospects in emerging markets
Crude
Copper
INDEX ROLLOVER
Global Research Limited
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Technical levels
SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1316 1311 1329 1334
SILVER 22.19 21.94 22.60 23.02
COPPER 3.2760 3.2595 3.3150 3.3380
CRUDE 102.85 102.24 104.09 104.70