Country Risk Global Grading

_Pu

blic

atio

n

N°2

AU G

roup

G-G

rade

20

15 -

3rd Q

uart

er

20153RD QUARTER

GLOBALOVERVIEW

_Country Risk Global Grading

AU Group

—GRADEG

_Co

pyrig

ht A

U G

roup

_In

trod

uctio

n

INTRODUCTION

Pag

e1

INTRODUCTION

NOTICE OF EXPLANATION

DISCLAIMER

- The G-Grade displays a grade between 1 and 10, measuring the perceived level of political risk in this country.

- Grade 1 corresponds to the lowest perceived level of political risk.

- On each country snapshot, you will notice:• on the left side is the previous grade,• on the centre is the current G-Grade, and • on the right side is the highest and the lowest

risk assessment provided by the insurers.

- All macro economic graphics have been prepared based on IMF (International Monetary Fund) sta-tistics department information (World Economic Outlook Database)

- In case of questions please address your request to: [email protected]

This document refl ects the opinion of AU Group. The information and datas contained herein are based on our current

hypotheses and viewpoints. They are not legal or other professional advice and shall not be relied on as such. In this

regard, A.U. Group does not warrant or assume any legal liability for any indirect damage, such as any fi nancial or

commercial loss, loss of profi ts, disruption to business, shortfall in earnings, losses or any legal action brought by a

third party against the reader, resulting from the use of this document or any information contained in this document.

Moreover, the analyses are subject to modifi cation at any time without prior notice.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or used

in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including

photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval sys-

tems without the prior permission of AU Group.

ENABLING BETTER VISIBILITY ON WORLDWIDE RISKS

In our challenging global economy, it is obvious how much, the business environment has been shaken by political risk, environmental catastrophes, local country instability with high levels of debt, local armed confl ict….These events have occurred across all regions e.g. Russia, Brazil, Egypt, China, Greece... In this context, companies continue to seek new markets to develop their export businesses as well as monitoring existing markets for signs of higher risk. Many companies use Trade Credit to secure their growth, supporting their own commercial credit decisions with information provided by large insurers such as EULER HERMES, ATRADIUS, COFACE & CREDIMUNDI... All of those insurers have their own sophisticated economic research departments, which analyse short/medium term economic risk as well as country political risk. In this regards they are producing country risk grades to monitor political risk which could impact the payment of a receivable. However, each insurer uses different methods to assess the risk and each presents its grades in different ways. We, at AU Group, the largest broker only specialised in insurance and fi nancing of trade receivables, wanted to innovate by giving, in a single Grade, a condensed overview based on the insurers’ country risk assessments. Therefore we created the “AU G-Grade” for decision makers. The AU G-Grade is displayed country by country, showing the lowest and highest assessments and the rating evolution. In addition and in order to provide you a complete picture of each country, we have selected 7 KPI’s issued by the IMF statistic department.

The AU G-Grade is a complementary tool to the insurer’s grading and gives a solid trend and indication of a country risk based on the valuable grading of the most experienced insurers. We trust you will appreciate this initiative.

― Baudouin de Thoré, Chief Executive Officer

AU GROUP

—GRADEG

COPYRIGHT

AU Group G-Grade 2015

hight risk

10

low risk

1

Albania

Armenia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Belgium

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bulgaria

Croatia

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Georgia

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Macedonia

Malta

Moldova

Montenegro

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

United Kingdom

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan

Australia

Bangladesh

Cambodia

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea (South)

Laos

Malaysia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Nepal

New Zealand

Pakistan

Papua New Guinea

Philippines

Singapore

Sri Lanka

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

p.3

p.4

p.5

p.6

p.7

p.8

p.9

p.10

p.11

p.12

p.13

p.14

p.15

p.16

p.17

p.18

p.19

p.20

p.21

p.22

p.23

p.24

p.25

p.26

p.27

p.28

p.29

p.30

p.31

p.32

p.33

p.34

p.35

p.36

p.37

p.38

p.39

p.40

p.41

p.42

p.43

p44

p.45

p.46

p.47

p.48

p.49

p.50

p.63

p.64

p.65

p.66

p.67

p.68

p.69

p.70

p.71

p.72

p.73

p.74

p.75

p.76

p.77

p.78

p.79

p.80

p.81

p.82

p.83

p.84

p.85

p.86

COUNTRY COUNTRY COUNTRYPAGE PAGE PAGETREND TREND TREND

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verv

iew

OVERVIEW

OVERVIEW

EUROPE & CIS

Pag

e2

ASIA

AMERICAS

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Canada

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Haiti

Honduras

Jamaica

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

United States of America

Uruguay

Venezuela

p.128

p.129

p.130

p.131

p.132

p.133

p.134

p.135

p.136

p.137

p.138

p.139

p.140

p.141

p.142

p.143

p.144

p.145

p.146

Algeria

Angola

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Congo (Brazaville)

Congo (Democratic Republic)

Cote d’Ivoire

Egypt

Ethiopia

Gabon

Ghana

Guinea

Kenya

Liberia

Libya

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mauritania

Mauritius

Morocco

Mozambique

Namibia

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Senegal

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Sudan

Tanzania

Togo

Tunisia

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

p.87

p.88

p.89

p.90

p.91

p.92

p.93

p.94

p.95

p.96

p.97

p.98

p.99

p.100

p.101

p.102

p.103

p.104

p.105

p.106

p.107

p.108

p.109

p.110

p.111

p.112

p.113

p.114

p.115

p.116

p.117

p.118

p.119

p.120

p.121

p.122

p.123

p.124

p.125

p.126

p.127

AFRICA

p.51

p.52

p.53

p.54

p.55

p.56

p.57

p.58

p.59

p.60

p.61

p.62

MIDDLE EAST

Bahrain

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen


Copyright AU GroupAU Group G-Grade 2015

ALBANIA

Euro

pe &

Cis

2.8Population

in Millions of people, 2014

2.1Gross Domestic Product

in % of change, 2014

4 781Gross Domestic Product Per Capita

in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

7

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

7.81

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

6MAX

10

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

2.7

(estimated) (forecast)

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(% change)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1.6 1.42.1

3

4


GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA(USD)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4 384

4 6334 781

4 495

4 835


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

113115.2

117.1119.2

122.1


UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% of total labor force)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

13.4

15.6

14 13.8 13.5


GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT(% of GDP)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

62

70.172.6 73.6

69.8


CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE(% of GDP)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-10.2 -10.7 -13.9 -15.7 -15.5


Source : International Monetary Fund

Albania - Europe & Cis

Page 3


BELGIUM

Euro

pe &

Cis

11.2Population


1Gross Domestic Product



in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

2

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

1.51

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

1MAX

2

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

11.1

11.2 11.2 11.2

11.3



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0.10.3

11.3

1.5



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

44 98847 033 47 722

41 267 42 036


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

118.2

119.6120.2 120.3

121.4



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7.6

8.4 8.5 8.48.2



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

104104.6

105.6106.6 106.2



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-0.7-0.2

1.62.3 2.4



Belgium - Europe & Cis

Page 8


GREECE

Euro

pe &

Cis

11Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

6.3

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

8.31

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

7MAX

10

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

11.1 11.1

11 11 11



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-6.6-3.9

0.82.5 3.7



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

22 44621 903 21 653

18 86319 800


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

122.9121.6

119.9 119.6 119.9



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

24.4

27.526.5

24.8

22.1



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

156.5

174.9 177.2172.7

162.4



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-2.5

0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1



Greece - Europe & Cis

Page 20


HUNGARY

Euro

pe &

Cis

9.9Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

4.8

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

5.31

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

4MAX

6

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9

9.8



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-1.5

1.5

3.62.7 2.3



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

12 769

13 465

13 881

12 853

13 487


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

109.9

111.8 111.5 111.5

114



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

11.110.2

7.8 7.6 7.4



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

78.577.3 76.9

75.574.7



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1.9

4.1 4.24.8

4.1



Hungary - Europe & Cis

Page 21


BAHRAIN

Mid

dle

East

1.2Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

5

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

51

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

4MAX

6

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3.4

5.34.7

2.7 2.4



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

26 632

27 91728 272

25 633

26 714


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

114.7118.5

121.5124

125.9



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3.9

4.3

4.1

4.3 4.3



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

36.343.6 43.8

54 57



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7.2 7.85.3

-2.1 -0.7



Bahrain - Middle East

Page 51


IRAN

Mid

dle

East

78Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

10

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

101

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

10MAX

10

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7677

7879

80



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-6.6

-1.9

30.6 1.3



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

5 512

4 941

5 183

4 983 5 057


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

130.5175.9

203.2236.8

277



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

12.2

10.411.2

12.313.2



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

11.2 11.1

12.211.9 11.9



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6.37.4

3.8

0.8 1.2



Iran - Middle East

Page 52


CAMBODIA

Asi

a

15.3Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

8.3

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

6.81

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

5MAX

9

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

14.915.1

15.315.5

15.8



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7.37.4

7

7.2 7.2



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

9461 018

1 0811 146

1 229


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

148152.4

158.3 157.8161.7



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

28.928.7

29.529.8

29.5



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-11 -12.2 -12 -10 -9.3



Cambodia - Asia

Page 66


CHINA

Asi

a

1 367.8Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

3.3

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

3.81

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

2MAX

6

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1 3541 360.7

1 367.81 375

1 382.1



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7.8 7.87.4

6.8

6.3



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6 1946 959

7 5898 154

8 659


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

108.2111

113.2114.6

116.3



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

37.339.4

41.143.5

46.2



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2.6

1.9 2

3.2 3.2



China - Asia

Page 67


ANGOLA

Afr

ica

24.4Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

6.8

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

7.51

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

5MAX

9

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2323.7

24.425.1

25.9



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

5.2

6.8

4.2 4.53.9



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

5 0185 245 5 273

4 2274 561


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

116.5126.7

135.9147.3

159.8



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

29.635.2 38

47.544.3



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

126.7

-0.8-6.3 -4.2



Angola - Africa

Page 88


GABON

Afr

ica

1.6Population





in USD, 2014

12

3

45 6

78

9

PREVIOUSG-GRADE

5.8

12

3

45 6

78

9

CURRENTG-GRADE

6.31

23

45 6

78

9

SPREAD

MIN

5MAX

8

POPULATION(Persons)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1.5

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

5.5 5.6

5.1

4.4

5.5



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

10 52610 966 10 836

9 343

9 979


INFLATION(Index)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

117.1 117.7

123126.1

129.2



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

21.1

27 27.8

33.7 35.1



2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

21.315 11.3

-2.3

0.9



Gabon - Africa

Page

101

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7

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Country Risk Global Grading