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Chinese GDP Sets Table For Improved Risk Amid CPI Data From EZ, UK, US
Aussie Holds Ground as Chinese GDP Fears Fail to Materialize; Yen Weakest
ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has edged higher to start the week and has nearly taken back all of its losses since Wednesday, when Fed Chairman Bernanke deployed dovish rhetoric as a way of pushing US Treasury yields lower once more. With the US economy showing signs of improvement in key sectors, market participants will be watching today’s US Advance Retail Sales report for June for confirmation that gains in jobs and housing in recent weeks are reflective of improved consumption trends.
The data today is one of two key prints out of the United States before Wednesday’s fireworks, when Fed Chairman Bernanke takes to Capitol Hill for his likely last semiannual testimony in front of Congress. While today’s consumption report should show a stronger US economy, tomorrow’s inflation data – the other key report – suggests that the US economy isn’t growing fast enough to warrant a withdrawal of stimulus.
As the market tries to peg where Chairman Bernanke’s bias will lay on Wednesday, risk appetite has seen a nice boost to start the week after the 2Q’13 Chinese GDP report. Although the headline missed expectations, the annualized print of +7.5% came short of the +7.7% consensus forecast (and +7.7% model estimate), there had been growing chatter the past week or two that a print near +7.0% should be expected; needless to say, the report can be viewed as somewhat positive in that regard. Accordingly, the Australian Dollar, facing record short positioning among speculative traders, is seeing relief as well; and the AUDJPY is outperforming as a result.
Read more: Chinese GDP Sets Table for Improved Risk amid CPI Data from EZ, UK, US
Taking a look at European credit, peripheral yields are mostly mixed but Portugal continues to underperform and lead. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.710% (-0.4-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 2.040% (-1.7-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.481% (+0.1-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.756% (-0.9-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3000 TGT 1.2980/1.2960
SL 1.3030
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 100.50
TGT 100.70/100.90 SL
100.20
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5030 TGT 1.5010/1.4990
SL 1.5060
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0030 (BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 39 (BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDJPY CHART
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ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>76(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
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ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>31(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0138(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>57(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun Jul 14
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
0.7% 0.3%
22:30
NZD Performance Services Index (JUN)
Medium 55.0
56.0
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.3%
1.2%
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 4.8%
2.7%
Mon Jul 15
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low 4.0%
0.0%
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Low 7.1%
0.2%
02:00
CNY Business Climate Index (2Q)
Low 120.6
125.6
02:00
CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q)
High 7.6% 7.7% 7.7%
02:00
CNY Entrepreneur Confidence Index (2Q)
Low 117.0
122.4
02:00
CNY GDP (YoY) (2Q) High 7.5% 7.5% 7.7%
02:00
CNY Real GDP (QoQ) (2Q)
High 1.7% 1.8% 1.6%
02:00
CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 9.3% 9.3% 9.4%
02:00
CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 8.9% 9.1% 9.2%
02:00
CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 20.1% 20.2% 20.4%
02:00
CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 12.7% 12.7% 12.6%
02:00
CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 13.3% 12.9% 12.9%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.1% 0.1% -0.3%
07:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN)
Low 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%
12:00
USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Banking Regulation in Washington
Low
12:30
USD Empire Manufacturing (JUL)
Low
5 7.84
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
12:30
USD Advance Retail Sales (JUN)
High
0.7% 0.6%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JUN)
Medium
0.4% 0.3%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JUN)
Low
0.3% 0.3%
12:30
USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (JUN)
Low
0.4% 0.3%
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
3.6%
14:00
USD Business Inventories (MAY)
Medium
0.2% 0.3%
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
22:45
NZD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium
0.3% 0.4%
22:45
NZD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q)
Medium
0.8% 0.9%
Tue
Jul 16 01:30
AUD RBA Policy Meeting - July Minutes
High
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Low
49.20%
06:00
EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (JUN)
Low
-5.9%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
-0.2% -0.3%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Low
4.2% 2.2%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.1% 0.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
1.9% 1.2%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.1% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
1.1% 0.8%
08:30
GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAY)
Low
2.8% 2.6%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
-0.1% 0.2%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
High
3.0% 2.7%
08:30
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
High
2.3% 2.2%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (JUN)
Low
250 250
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.0% 0.2%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
Low
3.4% 3.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JUN)
Low
3.4% 3.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
0.1% 0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F)
High
1.6% 1.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JUN F)
High
1.2% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAY)
Low
16.2B 16.1B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY)
Low
12.0B 14.9B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)
Medium
30.6
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (JUL)
Medium
9 8.6
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)
High
40 38.5
12:30
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAY)
Low
1.0% -2.4%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
0.3% 0.1%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
High
1.6% 1.4%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)
High
1.6% 1.7%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JUN)
Low
233.267
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JUN)
Low
233.25 232.95
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAY)
Low
$12.7B
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY)
Medium
-$37.3B
13:15
USD Industrial Production (JUN)
Medium
0.003 0
13:15
USD Capacity Utilization (JUN)
Low
0.777 0.776
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN)
Medium
0.20% 0.10%
14:00
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL)
Medium
51.0 52.0
18:15
USD Fed's George Speaks on Economic Conditions and Agriculture
Low
23:50
JPY Bank of Japan June 10-11 meeting minutes
High
Wed
Jul 17 00:30
AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY)
Medium
0.6%
02:00
CNY Conference Board China June Leading Economic Index
Low
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN F)
Medium
-12.4%
08:30
GBP Bank of England Minutes
High
08:30
GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN)
Medium
4.5% 4.5%
08:30
GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN)
Medium
-8.0K -8.6K
08:30
GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/(YoY)) (MAY)
Low
1.4% 1.3%
08:30
GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/(YoY)) (MAY)
Low
1.1% 0.9%
08:30
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY)
Medium
7.80% 7.80%
08:30
GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAY)
Medium
82K 24K
09:00
CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (JUL)
Medium
2.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
Low
2.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)
Low
-6.6%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 12)
Low
-4.00%
12:30
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAY)
Low
14.91B
12:30
USD Housing Starts (JUN)
Low
950K 914K
12:30
USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
3.9% 6.8%
12:30
USD Building Permits (JUN)
Low
1000K 974K
12:30
USD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
1.5% -3.1%
14:00
CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (JUL 17)
High
1.00% 1.00%
14:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House
High
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 12)
Low
-9874K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 12)
Low
-2634K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 12)
Low
3038K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 12)
Low
0.002
16:30
USD Fed's Raskin Speaks at Exchequer Club in Washington
Low
18:00
USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
High
22:00
NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN)
Low
-1.7%
Thu
Jul 18 00:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAY)
Low
0.3%
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)
Low
123.9
01:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.20%
01:30
AUD NAB Business Confidence (2Q)
Medium
2
01:30
CNY China June Property Prices
Low
01:30
AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (JUN)
Low
490M
01:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (JUN)
Low
33M
03:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions Govt. (JUN)
Low
05:30
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Low
2.6%
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Low
5.1%
06:00
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)
Medium
2.22B
06:00
CHF Exports (MoM) (JUN)
Low
1.7%
06:00
CHF Imports (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.9%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAY)
Low
19.5B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAY)
Low
15.3B
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.2% 2.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
1.6% 2.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.4% 2.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
1.8% 1.9%
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY)
Low
0.2%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 12)
Medium
360K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (JUL 6)
Low
2977K
14:00
USD API Monthly Statistical Report
Low
14:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate
High
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed. (JUL)
Medium
6.8 12.5
14:00
USD Leading Indicators (JUN)
Medium
0.003 0.001
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 12)
Low
82.0
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (JUN)
Low
1740
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12)
Medium
¥973.1B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12)
Medium
-¥14.1B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12)
Low
¥3.5B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12)
Low
¥486.9B
Fri Jul 19
EUR G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank's Deputies Meeting in Russia
High
EUR G20 Labour Ministers Meeting in Russia
High
EUR G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Russia
High
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
-0.6%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
2.4%
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY)
Medium
1.2% 0.4%
05:00
JPY Leading Index (MAY F)
Medium
110.5
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (MAY F)
Low
105.9
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN)
Low
-0.1% -0.3%
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN)
Low
0.6% 0.2%
08:30
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUN)
Medium
3.1B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Interventions (JUN)
Medium
9.0B 8.8B
08:30
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (JUN)
Medium
9.3B 10.5B
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
High
1.3% 0.7%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
-0.3% 0.2%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN)
High
1.3% 1.1%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.1%
12:30
CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.0%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (JUN)
Low
123.0
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