ECONOMIC POLICY ANALYSIS

TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONSM GOHAR IQBAL5052SEMINAR IN ECONOMIC POLICYINSTRUCTOR: DR. NAVEED AWAN

AGENDA•Comparison of Economic policies from 2010-2014

•Their Reasons and Impacts

•Some graphical representation

•Suggested Policies

2010-11 VS 2011-12Points 2010-11 2011-12Road Networks

259,463km 260,000 km catering 11M vehicles

NHA Projects

36 development projects launched since 2008 of flyovers, bridges & Interchanges

Completed 12 projects.

Railways 17.6 % growth Increased participation of private sector through “Track access policy”

PIA Rs.107 billion revenue Rs.116 billion revenue, purchase of 5 Boeing 777 planes.

Karachi Port

20.2 M tons cargo 27.8 M tons cargo

Port Bin Qasim

13.1 M tons cargo 19.7 M tons cargo

Gawadar Port 63,000 M tons of cargo Rs.53.4 M cargo handled

Teledensity 102.8 M subscribers 68.3% subscriber rate increased (253 approx subscribers)

2010-11 VS 2011-12 (REASONS)• The Increase in Road networks shows the construction level exist,

this increase has been watched specially in Punjab where the PML(N) govt. was in control at 2010-11, as they build Punjab as better province then others.• NHA, a govt. level department started projects but completed 12 in

the year span, this shows the inability and lack of seriousness toward the work from govt. and their employees.• The growth on railways is a fictitious figure as history tells that at

that time the railway ministry was about to close the whole operation to promote their private bus networks all around the country but still in 2012 the govt. realize that without railways the operations are difficult so that’s why they offered private sector to jump in.

2010-11 VS 2011-12 (REASONS)• PIA shows its revenue increased but the organization is still lacking the

ability to climb up as the best airlines as they have always technical and staff issues. Numerous (un –merit) hiring on one position is creating PIA to go close for privatization or bankruptcy.• Karachi port shows increase of shipment toward it, as heavy traffic comes

here.• Port Bin Qasim is a little smaller then KP, so it caters less shipment then KP

but still progressing to increase the traffic.• Gawadar Port, an issue to enemy countries but an opportunity for PAK-

China relationship, is also progressing timely to get all the benefits.• No doubt, telecom industry increased as mobile phones, smartphone, low

budget phone shines in market. Also cheap calling rate, SMS rates, bundled packages increased the tele density ratio.

2010-11 VS 2011-12 (IMPACTS)• The lack of merit and non-serious attitude caused the departments to

dissolve in their own circle.• Less revenue generation and corruption in order to not spending the

budget money towards the project is the form of attitude govt. showed the increased inflation.• Since No merit in departments like NHA, PIA and railways at that time,

there was lack of ambition, planning that almost bankrupt these bodies.• People of Pakistan didn’t got bread, cloth and home instead they got

robbed by govt. in order of taxes to pay the money taken by IMF and others.• Increased trade as shipping increases.• Telecom Industry boomed affecting to people to connect easily.

2011-12 VS 2012-13(ELECTIONS 2013)Points 2011-12 2012-13Road Networks

260,000 km catering 11M vehicles 263,415 km catering 21 M vehicles

NHA Projects Completed 12 projects. 12,131 km, 33 highways and strategic roads.

Metro Bus Planning. From Gujjamata to Shadrah, 45 buses, 27 stations, 27 Km route. 1500 jobs and 1,20,000 passengers.

Railways Increased participation of private sector through “Track access policy”

Karachi Circular Railway had been planned of 50 km track with Rs.247 billion cost.

PIA Rs.116 billion revenue, purchase of 5 Boeing 777 planes.

Rs.112.1 billion revenue, decline of 4.5% with 8.6% seats decline.

Karachi Port 27.8 M tons cargo 28.8 M tons of cargo in the first 9 months.

Port Bin Qasim

19.7 M tons cargo 18.6 M tons of cargo

Gawadar Port Rs.53.4 M cargo handled 5 M tones cargo handledTeledensity 68.3% subscriber rate increased (253 M

approx subscribers)71.95% increased

2011-12 VS 2012-13 (REASON)• The capacity of Road Network increases as projects started by the new govt.

kicked and completed quickly.• No New project listed in 2012-13 survey only figures given, because at this stage

NHA was planning to start new projects also the PAK-CHINA Economic Corridor plans were pushed by Govt. to NHA.• Metro bus started in Lahore, their utmost priority.• First private train started its service offering comfort, food and internet connection.

Also the new govt. ministry worked hard to get back the railway status and first step was bringing back the trains on track by lowering the ticket cost to 30%.• As in previous reason for PIA, the revenue increased but here it decrease just

because of incompetent people with lack of skills, more work force on one position, old planes, new planes with much technical issues, personal hiring. These reasons caused mistrust of people on PIA and people switched to private airlines.

2011-12 VS 2012-13 (REASON)• Karachi Port continuously increasing its shipping and handling of

cargo as it has more skilled workforce and space.• Port Qasim seems here in a decline as it has less space of

handling traffic, also since the road infrastructure from Port Qasim to city areas are not better, traders do not send much material from PQ.• Gawadar Port is in phase for increase continuation of handling

cargo.• Since to network provider continuously decreased the calling and

texting with packages. And since low budget phones with local brands came in market. The tele density ration is continuously increasing.

2011-12 VS 2012-13 (IMPACTS)• Road network increment will impact the heavy traffic to get more controlled and

traders will get more areas to cover. Also Job opportunity increases as labors get more chance of work.• Inability and skill less work force from NHA can only plan but can’t get to work. Also

at start of Nawaz govt. NHA and other bodies were working without their Heads as there was no hiring of CEOs done by govt. So if boss is not there, who will work?• Metro Bus bring ease of travelling with waste of budget.• Serious working on Railway by ministry impacted the railway back on track, still

there are issues but they manage to work it out to save railway.• Incompetent, lack of skill workforce, lack of planning and corruption has lowered the

graph to earth of PIA impacted a huge loss and lack of trust from people towards the service.• Sea Ports are doing better to stabilize the economy.• Tele density is only advancement that is collecting a lot revenue for the country.

2012-13 VS 2013-14Points 2012-13 2013-14Road Networks

263,415 km catering 21 M vehicles 263,775 km

NHA Projects 12,131 km, 33 highways and strategic roads.

12,131 km, 39 highways, motorways, expressway and strategic roads.

Metro Bus From Gujjamata to Shadrah, 45 buses, 27 stations, 27 Km route. 1500 jobs and 1,20,000 passengers.

RWD-ISL metro bus project started on 23rd March, completed in next ten months till 2015,

Railways Karachi Circular Railway had been planned of 50 km track with Rs.247 billion cost.

7791 km routes, 423 locomotives, 1,700 passenger coaches & 16,179 freight wagons.

PIA Rs.112.1 billion revenue, decline of 4.5% with 8.6% seats decline.

Downward trend. Policies of resurrection were made only.

Karachi Port/ PNSC

28.8 M tons of cargo in the first 9 months.

PNSC (Pakistan National Shipping Corporation) handled 642, 207 tons crude oil.

Port Bin Qasim

18.6 M tons of cargo 0.632 M TEUs (Twenty Equal Units), 17.5% higher(21.85 M tons).

Gawadar Port 5 M tons cargo handled 5.7 M tons cargo showing increase of 13.8%

Teledensity 71.95% 78%

2012-13 VS 2013-14 (REASONS)• Not much done on roads after a year. Just because of working on PAK-

China corridor. Also if there is a decrement of values above shows that the govt. was tackling the serious allegations of elections rigging from PTI as PTI was in a history long Sit Ins. • NHA road no.s get same with a little increment in projects just because of

the govt. pressure to work.• After a successful inauguration of Metro Bus in Lahore, PML(N) govt. got

crazy and planned and built metro (regardless of criticism and SIT Ins by PTI) with in no time.• Railways got increase in strength as ministry continuous to work hard.• Above reasons discussed, getting PIA down to earth. One more reason is

that the Sindh Govt. of PPP is not in favor of getting PIA privatize as it will end their mode of earning money and corruption.

• Karachi Port figures disappeared as economic policy 2013-14 doesn’t talked about it. Instead PNSC figures are given. Which shows much decrease then KP handling ability. This is just because instability of Govt. due to PTI’s Sit Ins and law and order situation.• Port Bin Qasim also increased its handling capacity in order to get

more shipment as KP and PNSC were lacking at that time. • Gawadar port is gaining trust from traders, this is because of

efforts of govt. in making a trade route big enough to ship and send to all parts of country and to neighboring countries specially CHINA .• Introduction of 3G, 4G and 4G LTE technologies and cheaper

smartphones boomed the use of telecom products in Pakistan.

2012-13 VS 2013-14 (REASONS)

2012-13 VS 2013-14 (IMPACTS)• Delays in planning and work and lame excuse of Sit Ins by government caused

their own work loss, effects people as year after year there is an increase in traffic and roads are as it is.• Above reason also goes for NHA, but due to pressure the highways no.

increases impacting on more travelling ways for people and traders.• Metro bus, again ease with waste.• Railway growth increase the trust level of passengers and trains started to

earn revenue out of it.• PIA has lost huge trust.• The Ports are again generating revenue since trading is carried out heavily

from KP, PQ, PNSC and GP.• Telecommunication infrastructure is enabling the people to connect and stay

connected both offline and online with ease.

2010-11 VS 2013-14Points 2010-11 2013-2014Road Networks

259,463km 263,775 km

NHA Projects 36 development projects launched since 2008 of flyovers, bridges & Interchanges

12,131 km, 39 highways, motorways, expressway and strategic roads.

Metro Bus N/A RWD-ISL metro bus project started on 23rd March, completed in next ten months till 2015,

Railways 17.6 % growth 7791 km routes, 423 locomotives, 1,700 passenger coaches & 16,179 freight wagons.

PIA Rs.107 billion revenue Downward trend. Policies of resurrection were made only.

Karachi Port/PNSC

20.2 M tons cargo PNSC (Pakistan National Shipping Corporation) handled 642, 207 tons crude oil.

Port Bin Qasim

13.1 M tons cargo 0.632 M TEUs (Twenty Equal Units) , 17.5% higher.

Gawadar Port 63,000 M tons of cargo 5.7 M tons cargo showing increase of 13.8%

Teledensity 102.8 M subscribers 40.63% 78%

2010-11 VS 2013-14 (REASON)• Drastic change in road network as PML(N) govt. is supposed

to be business men friendly govt.• All the NHA projects got completed with increment in

infrastructure as the govt. is more interested in physical form of development more than medication etc.• Metro Bus is the great example of ease and wastage of

resources as it benefits the only govt.• Decline railways resurrected again just because of competent

(still less) workforce and ministry.• PIA reached its death because of incompetent, un wanted

hiring etc. by provincial govt. and they are strong enough to force Federal govt. not to privatize it.• The structure of Ports had been also upgraded especially

Gawadar, that’s why they are getting much cargo from the region. Also, Pakistan coastal areas are much of importance.• Telecommunications are the only structure that is booming,

because technology inspires.

2010-11 VS 2013-14 (IMPACT)• The Country, in present situation, is far much in better shape as it

was in 2010-11 when the incompetent govt. was ending.• People aren’t much but still they are satisfied with the

infrastructure development by the current government.• Railways has restored, somewhat, its dignity and trust in front of

Passengers.• Metro have given many people a modern way of travelling but in

fares govt. is paying huge subsidy that is effecting economy and ROI of service.• Incompetency of PIA from its staff and provincial govt. corruption

creates huge trust deficit, revenue deficit and looking good to be bankrupt.• Ports are earning revenue.• Telecom industry is making people happy and earning huge tax for

govt. and revenue for itself.

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION:  2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14Road Network

259,463 km 260,000 km 263,415 km 263,775 km

NHA 36 Project 12 Project 33 highways etc.

39 highways etc.

Railways 17 % growth N/A 50 km track 7791 km routes

PIA 107 b 116 b 112.1 b 0Karachi Port/PNSC

20.2 M tons 27.8 M tons 28.8 M tons 6.4 M tons

Port Bin Qasim

13.1 M tons 19.7 M tons 18.6 M tons 21.85 M tons

Gawadar Port

63,000 M tons Wheat

Rs.53 M cargo 5 M tons 5.7 M tons

Tele density 40.63% 68.3% 71.95% 78%Metro Bus N/A N/A LHR project

completedRWP-ISL project completed

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

259,463260,000

263,415 263,775

Road Network

Road Network

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

107116 112.1

0

PIA

PIA

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

20.2

27.8

28.8

0

0

0

0

6.4

Karachi Port/PNSC

PNSC Karachi Port

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-140.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

40.60%

68.30%71.95%

78.00%

Tele Density

Tele Density

SUGGESTED POLICIES:• Efficient Planning needed for Roads, NHA Future, PIA and even

railways.• Ports are also needed to upgrade by PNSC in order to increase cargo

handling capacity.• Not only planning needed, but its successful implementation is also

needed with TIME, COST and MONEY constraints in MIND.• For successful Implementation of policies and plans for bodies like PIA,

Ports, NHA and railways: Efficient and merit based hiring needed regardless of political influence and pressure.• Upgradation and futuristic approach is needed in order to make

Railways, PIA profitable again.• Telecommunication area needs less tax in order to get the trust of

customer on services and in order to get more revenue out of it. • The biggest Issue, LAW and Order and Political Instability and end of

Corruption is needed for the country to get trust and interest of foreign trade and tourist towards it.

THANK YOU!