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Eleições 2014
Carlos Pereira | 2014
ELEIÇÕES2014Panoramas Político e Eleitoral
Coalition Management and Elections in Brazil
Coalition Management and Elections in Brazil
Carlos Pereira
Legislative Support of the President
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
95
19
95
19
95
19
96
19
96
19
96
19
97
19
97
19
97
19
98
19
98
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01
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10
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10
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11
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12
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20
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1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
Legislative support Legislative support (tendency)
FHC Lula Dilma
Sustainable Democracy in a Multiparty Presidential Regime
• Comparing with the two previous legislatures, Dilma has achieved the
smallest average of legislative support, 44% of the Chamber of Deputies
(Lula1=51% and Lula2 50%) or 62% of legislators, in fact, present during
the roll call voting (Lula1=74.4% and Lula2=70.2%).
• However, Dilma’s coalition management profile has been very similar to
Lula’s.
P u z z l e
Why has president Dilma’s legislative supporting waning so rapidly?
R e s e a r c h Q u e s t i o n
Coalition management and governability
In a coalition-based presidential system the executive has to face at least three interconnected tradeoffs:
1. Coalition size (number of players) • Small versus large
2. Coalition ideology (preferences) • Homogeneous versus heterogeneous
3. Participation of coalition members in cabinet (weight) • More proportional versus more monopolistic
Coalition Management
Measuring managerial performance (coalition management vs governability)
• Governability measure = Legislative support
• Coalition measures:
– Size measure = percentage of parties represented in chamber which are part of coalition
– Heterogeneity measure = coefficient of variation of coalition parties ideology (Zucco and Power 2012)
– Proportionality measure = coalescence rate (Amorim Neto 2006)
• Popularity = Best/good – bad/worst (Datafolha)
Popularity
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
95
19
95
19
95
19
96
19
96
19
96
19
97
19
97
19
97
19
98
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
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19
99
20
00
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00
20
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01
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01
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01
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02
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02
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02
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03
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03
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03
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10
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11
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11
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20
12
20
12
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20
13
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity
Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency)
FHC Lula Dilma
Coalition Size
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
95
19
95
19
95
19
96
19
96
19
96
19
97
19
97
19
97
19
98
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
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19
99
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00
20
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00
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01
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01
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01
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02
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03
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05
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07
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08
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08
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09
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09
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
11
20
11
20
11
20
12
20
12
20
12
20
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20
13
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity
Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency)
FHC Lula Dilma
Coalition Proportionality
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
95
19
95
19
95
19
96
19
96
19
96
19
97
19
97
19
97
19
98
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
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99
20
00
20
00
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00
20
01
20
01
20
01
20
02
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02
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02
20
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03
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1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity
Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency)
FHC Lula Dilma
Coalition Ideological Heterogeneity
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
95
19
95
19
95
19
96
19
96
19
96
19
97
19
97
19
97
19
98
19
98
19
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19
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00
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01
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01
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02
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02
20
03
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03
20
03
20
04
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04
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05
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05
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05
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07
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07
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08
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10
20
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20
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11
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20
12
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20
13
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7
Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity
Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency)
FHC Lula Dilma
A closer look at Dilma’s administration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
20
10
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10
20
10
20
10
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10
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20
13
20
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Legislative support Proportionality of the coalition President's polpularity
Size of the coalition Heterogeneity of the coalition Legislative support (tendency)
Lula Dilma
Power sharing and legislative support
45
3 3 6
4
17
3 3
26
2 4
10 8
23
12 13 19
1 -1
-4 -4 -6
-9 -10
72
56
66
61 59 55
50
55
Cabinet Share Seat share (considering only coalition)
Coalition Surplus Legislative support to government
Linear (Coalition Surplus) Linear (Legislative support to government)
• Number of Ministerial and bureaucratic positions
• Natural log of total spending with the appropriation of legislative amendments to the annual budget (Pork)
• Natural log of the total spending of ministerial positions
• Data is available from January 2001 to December 2011 (132 months)
• Factorial analysis with decomposition of the principal components
13
Coalition Costs
Number Cabinet
Positions
Ministerial Spending Pork
Governability Cost Index - GCI
Costs vs. Support - Efficiency ratio
Governability Costs Index - GCI Legislative Support (dots) Efficiency ratio (red line = 1)
Efficiency ratio = legislative support divided by GCI.
