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Presentation to NTU Short Course on Ship Finance
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EQUITY VALUATION OF SHIPPING COMPANIESAs part of “A Short Course in Ship Finance”
Nanyang Technological University
April 2, 2011
by: Teddy Tsai
Managing Director at Markis & Company (Asia) Ltd
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
AGENDA
Basics of Financial Statements
What is Valuation?
Valuation Ratios
Cash-flow based valuations
Asset-based valuations
Other Issues / Metrics
2
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
COURSE GOAL
By the end of the talk, participants should have a basic understanding of how analysts value shipping equities, and what metrics can be used to benchmark the market performance of shipping equities.
3
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
• Obtain company data
• Talk to experts
Gather Data
• Create models• Forecast financial
statements• Perform financial
analysis
Financial Forecasts • Compare with
peers• Compare
historically• Perform
valuations analysisValue the
stock
• Draft report• Explain
assumptions• Communicate
views
Publish report
WHAT EQUITY ANALYSTS DO
4
BASICS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
5
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
THE BASICSIncome
Statement
• Captures sources of profitability within a specified period of time.
• Sales, costs, margins, & profits
Cash Flow Statement
• Captures sources and uses of CASH within a specified period of time.
• Shows changes in cash from operating, investing, and financial activities.
Balance Sheet
• A snapshot of the assets, liabilities, and equity of a company.
• A single point in time, capturing the company’s financial conditions.
6
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
INCOME STATEMENT
7
Income Statement FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010Revenues 9285.125 6515.578 9422.092 - Cost of Revenue 8328.979 6535.951 8152.909Gross Profit 956.146 -20.373 1269.183 - Selling, General & Admin Expense 819.029 657.697 722.415Operating Income 148.606 -668.032 565.673 - Interest Expense 27.946 59.265 34.638 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 24.674 -11.293 -8.418 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -41.203 -15.877 9.631Pretax Income 137.189 -700.127 529.822 - Income Tax Expense 48.926 38.977 65.799Income Before XO Items 88.263 -739.104 464.023 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0.000 0.000 0.000 - Minority Interests 5.149 1.705 3.087Net Income 83.114 -740.809 460.936 - Total Cash Preferred Dividends 0.000 0.000 0.000Net Inc Avail to Common Shareholders 83.114 -740.809 460.936Abnormal Loss -30.526 -149.048 -5.258Tax Effect on Abnormal Items 5.495 26.829 0.653Normalized Income 58.083 -863.028 456.331Comprehensive Income - -594.923 422.563Comprehensive Income per Share - -0.290 0.164
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
INCOME STATEMENT - PER SHARE DATA, REFERENCE ITEMS
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Per Share Data FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010Basic EPS Before Abnormal Items 0.0357 -0.4208 0.177Basic EPS Before XO Items 0.0511 -0.3612 0.1788Basic EPS 0.0511 -0.3612 0.1788Basic Weighted Avg Shares 1627.3814 2051.035 2577.94Diluted EPS Before Abnormal Items 0.0355 -0.4208 0.1765Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.0508 -0.3612 0.1783Diluted EPS 0.0508 -0.3612 0.1783Diluted Weighted Avg Shares 1635.9899 2051.035 2585.17Reference ItemsEBITDA 411.628 -381.816 850.902Gross Margin 10.2976 -0.3127 13.4703Operating Margin 1.6005 -10.2528 6.0037Profit Margin 0.8951 -11.3698 4.8921Sales Growth 13.7886 -29.8278 44.6087Basic EPS Before XO Growth -84.1545 - -Interest Income 9.019 7.189 4.277
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
9
Cash Flow FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010 + Net Income 83.114 -740.809 460.936 + Depreciation & Amortization 263.022 286.216 285.229 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 106.398 125.859 77.239 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 49.064 -221.236 -130.072Cash From Operating Activities 501.598 -549.97 693.332 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 49.351 26.755 27.594 + Capital Expenditures -879.049 -89.051 -471.046 + Increase in Investments 0 0 0 + Decrease in Investments 4.374 0 0 + Other Investing Activities -19.566 -11.281 -6.612Cash From Investing Activities -844.89 -73.577 -450.064 + Dividends Paid -151.277 -39.246 0 + Change in Short-Term Borrowings 0 0 0 + Increase in Long-Term Borrowings 779.323 563.4 506.67 + Decrease in Long-term Borrowings -356.526 -951.29 -99.779 + Increase in Capital Stocks 1.76 957.505 1.39 + Decrease in Capital Stocks -0.621 0 0 + Other Financing Activities -4.513 -2.993 -7.385Cash from Financing Activities 268.146 527.376 400.896Net Changes in Cash -75.146 -96.171 644.164
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
CASH FLOW STATEMENT – REFERENCE ITEMS
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Cash Flow FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010Reference ItemsEBITDA 411.628 -381.816 850.902Net Cash Paid for Acquisitions -Free Cash Flow -377.451 -639.021 222.286Free Cash Flow To Firm -359.4714 - 252.6223Free Cash Flow to Equity 94.697 -1000.156 656.771Free Cash Flow per Basic Share -0.2319 -0.3116 0.0862Price to Free Cash Flow - - 19.698Cash Flow to Net Income 6.0351 - 1.5042
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
BALANCESHEET
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Balance Sheet FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items 429.219 333.048 977.212 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 720.977 737.752 1082.005 + Inventories 159.015 197.208 243.626 + Other Current Assets 181.318 236.115 99.61Total Current Assets 1490.529 1504.123 2402.453 + Long-Term Investments 0 0.031 0.068 + Gross Fixed Assets 5642.156 5707.121 - - Accumulated Depreciation 1990.473 2188.625 - + Net Fixed Assets 3651.683 3518.496 3705.515 + Other Long-Term Assets 302.379 317.9 343.021Total Long-Term Assets 3954.062 3836.427 4048.604Total Assets 5444.591 5340.55 6451.057
Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity + Accounts Payable 162.982 242.069 1174.158 + Short-Term Borrowings 471.752 20.975 21.023 + Other Short-Term Liabilities 1300.423 1095.146 420.899Total Current Liabilities 1935.157 1358.19 1616.08 + Long-Term Borrowings 777.682 918.831 1338.177 + Other Long-Term Liabilities 227.161 223.339 230.989Total Long-Term Liabilities 1004.843 1142.17 1569.166Total Liabilities 2940 2500.36 3185.246 + Minority Interest 44.047 43.571 43.407 + Share Capital & APIC 845.379 1815.479 1820.019 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 1615.165 981.14 1402.385Total Shareholders' Equity 2504.591 2840.19 3265.811Total Liabilities & Equity 5444.591 5340.55 6451.057
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
BASICS OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Purpose – The assessment of the profitability, solvency, liquidity, and stability of a business.
Use of financial ratios to make use of financial statement data.
Methods – Past performance, future performance, and comparative performance
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Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
RATIOS ANALYSIS
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Ratio Analysis FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010Gross Margin 10.2976 -0.3127 13.4703Operating Margin 1.6005 -10.2528 6.0037Pretax Margin 1.4775 -10.7454 5.6232Profit Margin 0.8951 -11.3698 4.8921Return on Assets 1.5902 -13.7376 7.818Return on Common Equity 3.2451 -28.1828 15.316
Enterprise Value FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010 Historical Market Cap 1146.963 2912.8707 4384.8634 + Minority Interest 44.047 43.571 43.407 + Total Debt (ST & LT Debt) 1249.434 939.806 1359.2 - Cash & Equivalents 429.219 333.048 977.212Enterprise Value 2011.225 3563.1997 4810.2584
Price Ratio Analysis FY1 2008 FY1 2009 FY1 2010Price/T12M Sales per Share 0.1234 0.3556 0.4647Price/T12M EBITDA per Share 2.7838 - 5.1458Price/T12M Earnings per Share 13.7761 - 9.4993Price/Book Value per Share 0.4661 1.0416 1.3607Price/T12M Cash Flow per Share 2.2845 - 6.3153Dividend 12 Month Yld - Gross 12.5 2.2719 1.6198
Earnings Yield 7.2589 -31.9787 10.5271 Price/T12M Earnings per Share 13.7761 - 9.4993Price/Net Tangible Assets per Share 0.4982 1.104 1.4292 Net Tangible Assets per Share 1.4134 1.0231 1.1884Price/T12M Free Cash Flow per Share - - 19.698 Trailing 12M Free Cash Flow Per Share -0.2319 -0.3116 0.0862
EBIT Yield 12.9684 -28.8361 12.9191Dividend Yield 10.26 0 2.1192Price/Tangible Book Value per Share 0.4982 1.104 1.4292Free Cash Flow Yield -32.9391 -27.5839 5.0767
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
DUPONT ANALYSIS
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FY 2010
FY 2009
FY 2008
FY 2007
FY 2006
FY 2005
FY 2004
FY 2003
FY 2002
FY 2001
FY 2000
(100.0)
(50.0)
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
15.3
(28.2) 3.2
21.9 15.4 33.6
54.1 46.1
(45.8)
(6.1) 20.6
Return on Common Equity Tax Burden Interest Burden EBIT Margin
Source: Bloomberg, Wikipedia
WHAT IS VALUATION?15
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
EQUITY VALUATION
In finance, valuation is the process of estimating what something is worth. Items that are usually valued are a financial asset or liability.
– Wikipedia
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Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
EQUITY VALUATION What is it used for?
Quantifying how much a company (or new business) is worth. Can be used in investment analysis, capital budgeting, M&A
transactions, financial reporting, taxable events, litigation, etc. How is it done?
Assessing future cash flows, profits, and investments Assessing risk involved in generating cash flows and profits. Compare risk-reward potential versus other peers and projects. And any other reason that can add value, or worth to a buyer.
What it is NOT – Valuations is not a market price. It is an estimated worth. Stock valuation is not a prediction. It is a convention, for the
purpose of stability and liquidity of investments.
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Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
VALUATION MYTHS Valuations is a long-term fair value and stable
over time.
The best valuation is where the most precise estimate can be calculated
The more complex and quantitative the model, the better
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Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
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Chartist approach Intrinsic value approach
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
RELATIVE VS. ABSOLUTE VALUATIONS
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Relative Valuations Absolute Valuations
Source: Bloomberg
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
DIRECT VS. INDIRECT VALUATIONS
21
Direct Valuations DCF Multiples … using metrics to
arrive at an “intrinsic value” of the stock.
Indirect Valuations Equity IRR from LBO
approach Accretion/dilution in EPS
from merger analysis IRR from capital
budgeting projects. IRR or break even rate
based on purchase price, debt capacity, etc.
….assuming a range of assumptions in a model to arrive at an estimated return.
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
EQUITY VS. SHIP VALUATION METHODS
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Equity/Stock Valuations Price Multiples DCF NAV SOTP ….etc.
Ship Valuations Market valuation Demolition value Historical value Damaged value Replacement values
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
COMMON EQUITY VALUATION METHODS Comparative Valuations
Valuations using ratios, multiples, etc.
Cash Flow Based Methods Valuations using forward estimates of cash flows,
growth, and cost of capital.
Asset Based Methods Valuations based on current market value of
assets, sum of the parts, net asset values.
23
VALUATION RATIOS24
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
UNDERSTANDING VALUATION MULTIPLES Multiples are the simplest to understand, but
also can be the most theoretically rigorous approach.
A relative valuation approach, because valuation is compared to another benchmark.
Issues: Source of data and comparables, what metric to use, what discount/premium to apply?
Common valuation multiples Price / Earnings Price / Book Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA 25
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
Price
EPS
P/E Ratio
THE BASICS: P/E RATIO
26
P/E Ratio Current share price /
EPS Market Cap / Net
Income Pros:
Accessible, easy to understand, easy to apply (pick a number).
Cons: Not as relevant for
cyclical sectors. No standard definition
for EPS
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
THE BASICS: P/E RATIO Low P/E doesn’t necessarily mean “cheap”.
Cyclical sectors would have low P/Es when earnings are very high. Probably peak of the cycle and worst time to buy the stock.
Related Metrics: Earnings Yield PEG Ratio
27
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
Market Cap
Total Equity
P/B Ratio
THE BASICS: P/B RATIO
31
P/B Ratio Market Cap / Total Equity Current share price /
book value per share
Pros: Accessible, easy to
understand, easy to apply.
Complements to P/E & ROE.
Cons: BV is a historical cost
number; can vary from market value.
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
THE BASICS: P/B RATIO P/B Ratio is a favorite metric for asset-
intensive industries such as shipping. P/B used with ROE can indicate periods where
returns generated were higher than market expectations.
Total Equity is less “adjustable” versus net income, but may also be distorted by historical costs,
Similar Metrics: Price / NAV
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Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
Dividend per Share
Share Price
Dividend Yield
THE BASICS: DIVIDEND YIELD
35
Dividend Yield Annualized cash
dividend per share / share price
Pros: Tangible rate of return
metric. Represents actual cash
payments. Cons:
Tax issues involved May be distorted by
special dividends, no set dividend policies.
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
THE BASICS: DIVIDEND YIELD Annualized dividend per share = Annualized in
terms of the year in which the dividend was earned rather than paid. Combine interim and final to annualize, or “current indicated annual rate” or quarterly div x 4.
Dividends set by Board of Directors. This may be in accordance to a set dividend policy, vary in terms of payments from year to year, or vary in terms of payouts. Higher payout, lesser retained earnings for investments in new projects.
Similar Metrics: Free Cash Flow Yield
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Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
Enterprise Value
EBITDA
EV/ EBITDA
THE BASICS: EV/EBITDA
39
EV / EBITDA Enterprise value /
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Pros: Capital structure
neutral. Takes out distortions
due to accounting differences, taxes
Cons: Ignores capital intensity Difficult to adjust value
drivers
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
THE BASICS: EV/EBITDA Enterprise value: The value of all claims on the
assets and cash flows of a company
EBITDA = Operating income + Depreciation & Amortization
Related Metrics: EV / Sales 40
Market Cap Net Debt Minority
Equity
Other non-Current
Liabilities
Enterprise Value
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
THE BASICS: EV/EBITDA ISSUES Net debt + market capitalization reverses the
impact of capital structure during the current period.
EV and EBITDA can be adjusted to take into account the impact of operating leases, or chartered-in vessels. This would make for a fairer comparison between ship-owners and ship owner-operators.
EV/EBITDA can be used to value companies, with the intention to take on debt to acquire strategic targets.
41
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
OTHER VALUATION RATIOS
Basically most financial statement line-items can be used to generate a valuation ratio.
Price / Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Yield EV / Sales, Price / Sales Price / Cash Earnings EV / dwt …. etc.
43
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
TRICKS OF THE TRADE
Aggregate P/E vs. Weighted average P/E Peer group selection Consistent application of “EPS adjustments” Application of time-weighted shares
outstanding, historical adjustment factors, diluted vs. basic shares outstanding.
Use of year-end price versus average price. Forward P/E vs. trailing (historical) P/E
44
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
SUMMARY – VALUATION RATIOS
Forecast financial metrics of company to be analyzed
Identify the most relevant peer group
Calculate aggregate and weighted average peer comparison valuation ratios
Calculate various historical valuation ratios and select time period that is most appropriate
Compare valuation ratios over time, identify where we are in the cycle 45
CASH-FLOW BASED VALUATIONS
46
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
CASH FLOW BASED METHODS Valuations using forward estimates of cash flows,
growth, and cost of capital.
Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) – The sum of cash flows to all claim holders, including debt, preferred, and common shareholders.
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FEFC) – residual cash flows after meeting debt payments, preferred dividends, and providing for capex for existing and new assets.
Dividend discount model (DDM) – based on the idea that the value of equity is all future dividends discounted back to today.
Residual Income model (RIM) – Value is derived from current book value of equity and the present value of expected future residual income (ROE in excess of Cost of Equity)
47
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
PROS & CONSFOR CASH FLOW MODELS
48
Absolute valuation based upon expected cash flows
Captures cyclical variation in cash flows
Captures the impact of future capex plans
Effective for modeling operating companies
Not standardized, or easily obtainable
Sensitivity to cost of capital and terminal growth.
High variation in risk premium estimates.
Theoretical approach may be difficult for non-financial managers to understand.
Advantages Disadvantages
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
KEY INPUTS
EBITDA Change in provision
change in working capital
Capex minority interest
Free Cash Flow
Terminal Value
Weighted average Cost
of Capital
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
AN EXAMPLE
50
DCF Valuation Calculation of WACCValue of free cashflow 2011- 2018 (USDm) 399 Market value equity (2011)- USDm 1,186Terminal value 1,150 - in % 56%Value of firm (USDm) 1,549 Interest bearing debt (2011E) - USDm 917LESS: Net debt 2011E (USDm) - 239 - in % 44%Value of equity (USDm) 1,310
Risk premium 6.2%Beta 1.5
Equity value per share (USD) 0.68 Risk free rate 3.0%Equity value per share (HKD) 5.28 Interest rate 5.6%
Tax- rate 5.0%Cost of equity 12.0%
Terminal Growth Assumptions Cost of debt 5.3%Nominal growth year 2018+ 2.5% Net WACC 9.1%
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
51
USDm FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018EBIT 93 65 160 165 171 176 182 188 EBIT (1-tax rate) 88 61 152 157 162 167 173 179 + Depreciation and amortization 62 68 74 76 78 81 84 86 Changes in working capital 4.6 (1.3) (3.8) (3.9) (4.1) (4.2) (4.3) (4.5) - Capital expenditure (159) (112) (120) (118) (116) (114) (112) (110) Free cash flow (4.1) 16.7 101.3 110.8 120.6 130.6 140.7 151.1
Period (n=year) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Discount factor 0.917 0.841 0.771 0.707 0.648 0.594 0.545 0.500PV of Free Cash Flow -4 14 78 78 78 78 77 75
Sum of PV of FCF 399 PV of terminal value 1,150 Total firm value 1,549 LESS: Net debt 2011E (239) Equity value 1,310
No. of shares (mn) 1,927 Equity value per share (USD) 0.68 USDHKD rate 7.77 Equity value per share (HKD) 5.28 Current share price 4.78 premium/discount % 10.5%
AssumptionsRisk free rate 3.0%Beta 1.45Market risk premium 6.2%Cost of equity capital 12.0%Average cost of debt 5.6%Tax shield = (1- tax rate) 0.95Cost of debt capital 5.3%Total Debt/capital ratio 0.44WACC 9.06%Terminal growth 2.50%
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
TRICKS OF THE TRADE Compromise between rigor and a pragmatic
approach
Forecast in three stages: 1) near-term detailed forecasts, 2) intermediate growth period, 3) assumed steady state.
Tweaks Forecast period – How long will growth last? Fade period – time it takes to reach long-term
growth Cost of equity, risk premium, which risk free
rate? Raw beta or adjusted beta
Best practices – Run sensitivity analysis on key drivers.
53
ASSET-BASED VALUATIONS54
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
This is probably the most familiar way to value companies for ship owners.
What would it cost if I buy all the vessels from the secondhand sale & purchase market?
No standard definition, but valuations can be based on current market value of assets, value of contracts, newbuilding contracts, and adjusting for non-operating items.
55
ASSET-BASED VALUATIONS
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
PROS & CONSFOR AN ASSET-BASED APPROACH
57
Familiar to ship owners
Sector-specific metric
Links equity value to industry metrics
Adjustments can be made for value of contracts, newbuilding contracts
No standardized definition of NAV
Based upon secondhand prices, which are not always readily available for all ship types
No premium given to management capabilities
Tends to over-estimate during exuberant markets
Advantages Disadvantages
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
AN EXAMPLE – MARKET ADJUSTMENT VS. BOOK VALUE
58
NAV valuation (USDm) Book MarketOwned fleet 897 1,557Other non- current assets 903 903Current assets 842 842
Current liabilities - 240 - 240Non- current liabilities - 827 - 827Minority interest 0 0
Value of orderbook 762 762Outstanding capex - 300 - 300Total 2,038 2,698
No. of shares (mil) 1,927 1,927NAV/share (USD) 1.06 1.40NAV/share (HKD) 8.2 10.9
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
AN EXAMPLE – NEWBUILDING PRICE APPROACH
59
# of Ships 107 Salvage value / Ship 5.0 $ mnTotal fleet scrap value ($ mn) 535.0 Newbuilding cost 120.0 $ mnDepreciated market value (avg) 11,880.2 Depreciation period 25.0 yrsBook value (local currency) 18,156 Cash (local currency) 3,426 Average age of fleet 10.0 yrsLC/US$ exchange rate 3.03 Cash balance (US$) 1,132 Share Price 8.00 local currencyInterest bearing debt (local curr) 6,608 Shares 3,720 mn Interest bearing debt (US$) 2,183 Market Cap (local currency) 29,758.6 mn
Market Cap US$ 9,831.1 US$ mnUS$ salvage value & net debt (516.1) Enterprise value (US$) 10,882.2 US$ mn
US$ net book value 4,947.0 Market adj. net book value per share 8.81
Market value adj. net book value (US$ mn) 10,829.0 % premium/discount 10.2%
Company Name
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
TRICKS OF THE TRADE Should you including chartered-in vessels? Value
of charter contracts? Include financial & operating lease obligations?
What “market price” do you use? “Average” price? What time frame is “recent
transactions”? Secondhand, newbuilding, and/or scrap prices? Extrapolate for age and size? What about quality?
Can combine this with a sum of the parts (SOTP) valuation. Appropriate for holding company structures, or companies with different business lines.
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OTHER ISSUES / METRICS61
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
VALUING TRANSACTIONS Back into the value of the company based on
transactions: Leveraged Buyouts – Entry & exit multiples, debt
capacity, and EBITDA growth assumptions. To be used to see how much you can pay and finance, to obtain an acceptable equity rate of return.
Value of Contracts approach – contracted rates, cash flow generated, and debt capacity assumptions in a capital budgeting model. Generates NPV and IRR estimates.
Merger Integration – financing and accounting adjustment assumptions. To be used to see how much you can afford to pay and achieve accretion in earnings.
Venture Capital approach – Investment, IPO terminal value, and discount rate assumptions. Percent of ownership and high discount rate is needed, due to the risky nature of these investments.
62
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OTHER VALUATION APPROACHES/TECHNIQUES
Contingent claims – Capital structure arbitrage
Economic Value Added Option pricing Sum of the Parts (SOTP)
63
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
FURTHER STUDIES
Economic value added – EVA, ROIC, etc.
Financial Analysis – DuPont analysis, free cash flow analysis, capital intensity, margins, ratios analysis
Strategic Analysis – SWOT, five forces, etc.
Capital structure – bonds, preferred shares, convertible bonds, voting rights, options, dual listings, etc. 64
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
SUMMARY Valuation is the process of estimating what
something is worth. Fundamental analysts approach valuations in three
major methods1. Comparative methods, using valuation ratios. 2. Cash flow-based methods, estimating future growth,
cash flows, and cost of capital. 3. Asset-based methods, estimating current market values
of assets, and adding it up. There are many tricks of the trade, and care needs
to be taken when reviewing other people’s estimates.
At the end of the day, this is only a tool, and should reflect your views on the sector, management, company strategies, and opportunities.
65
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
COPYRIGHT & DISCLAIMER Copyright
Equity Valuation of Shipping Companies by Teddy Tsai is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/
Disclaimer This presentation is provided for information purposes only. It is not a complete
analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry, security or investment. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
While every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this presentation is correct with no errors and omissions, no responsibility can be nor is accepted as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements, facts, and examples included herein. No liability is accepted whatsoever on the part of Markis & Company (Asia) Ltd., or of any other parties whose material is contained in the presentation for any loss of profit or damange or any liability to third party whatsoever arising from the use of this presentation.
Neither this report, nor any opinion expressed herein, should be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to acquire any securities or other investments mentioned herein. The company accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or its contents. 66
Teddy Tsai ([email protected])
67
Markis & Company (Asia) Ltd
Teddy Tsai
Managing Director
+852 8127-7587