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LANDFALL 2009
Three P’s of Investing :
May set out Possibilities
Assign Probabilities
Cannot Predict events
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
2007 Forecasts Realized
Stocks crash over 50%
Subprime Slime… historic housing crisis
Derivatives Implode – bye, bye Wall Street
Mother of All Credit Crunches GLOBAL
FOUR HORSEMEN ARRIVED
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
CONSEQUENCES
Large brokers gone
Big Banks Bankrupt ?
Loss of Faith
Corruption Exposed
Bailouts and Stimulus
Huge Human Cost
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
WHO FAILED?Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
Who Failed ?
Management/Boards
Regulators-Auditors
Government…Policies
Academics and Theories
Analysts….Money Managers
Main StreetCopyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
WHAT FAILED ?Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
What Failed ?
Oversight Processes
Economic Methods
Structures and Systems
Accounting Measurements
Greed and Stupidity…..people’s values
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
Immediate Concerns
Devalued US$
Hyperinflation
Extended Deep Recession?
Social Unrest….Human Costs
Protectionism = Political
Upheaval
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
FUTURE ISSUESCopyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
FUTURE ISSUES Population increases = no sense
Depleting resources…. Math doesn’t work
Environment vs. Economics
Geopolitical shifts----new powers?
Unknown, Unknowns
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
NEAR TERM STRATEGY
Safety first then income
Long gold and hard assets
Plus soft commodities
Short US $ , treasuries
Short high end retail
Trident Opportunity
Special situations and structures
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
LONG TERMCopyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
LONG TERM
REMEMBER WE CANNOT PREDICT
HYPOTHESES AND THEORY MUST BE
RETESTED
FOLLOW SECULAR TRENDS
POPULATION GROWTH VS RESOURCES
WATCH SHIFTS IN GLOBAL LIQUIDITY
CURRENCY AND GOLD ARE TOOLS OF
EXCHANGECopyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
A final word
There are opportunities in crisis
This too shall pass
The issues are also clear
Predictive thinking, economic
models etc must be addressed
Yet we do things as they are
hard…not easy
The torch has been passed…..
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009
LANDFALL 2009
Copyrighted First Financial
Insights Inc. 2009