Foresight technology

Pursuing innovation: the foresight issues in Latvian universities

Dr. Arturs Puga

Forward Studies Unit (Riga, Latvia)

From Regional Networking to International Partnerships in Technology Transfer and Innovation Support.

TII 2008 Annual Conference, 23-25 April 2008, Valencia, Spain

Outline and framework of the presentation

I Foresight process (EU projects approach) as a kind of social technology

III EU foresight technology transfer (TT) to Latvian S&T institutions and universities

II LNELS project (2003-2008) – capabilities building for foresight activities at national and European level



Foresight comprises methodologies, techniques, tools, and systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building processes aimed at enabling present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions.

FOR-LEARN, EC, JRC-IPTS


Above all else, foresight is a social technology

Dr. Michael Keenan, PREST, University of Manchester, UK, UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Programme, TF for Organizers, 2006

- action-oriented, open to alternative futures, participatory, multidisciplinary- tangible and intangible outcomes providing benefits to involved organizations / enterprises / individual participants -- for policy making, strategies and other business objectives, priority setting, innovation, education, etc.

- use in knowledge and human action domains aiming at thinking, debating and shaping the future.



Successful technology transfer means that it is necessary to a broad view of "Technology" to mean not only machines and equipment, but also the skills, abilities, knowledge, systems and processes necessary to make things happen.

Thus technologies are meant to be total systems that include know-how, procedures, goods and services, as well as organizational and operational measures. Dr. Hari Srinivas, The Global Development Research Center





A showcase of a Latvian foresight experience is grounded on the transdisciplinary knowledge work; its processes, outcomes and lessons might be rethought, adapted / innovatively used for foresight related activities in both Latvia and other countries and regions





EU context

Policies

Values

Objectives

RTD

Practices

Incentives

The Lisbon strategy (2000-2010)

Tranfer

Methodologies

Scientific publications

Projects

Guides

Conferences

Workshops

Networks

National context

Organizational context

(Council of Science

Universities

Academies

Ministries

RTD institutions (businesses)

Communities

Non-profit organizations)

Adaptation processes

Change and Innovation

BARRIERS

A receiver / user decides

Latvia

Foresight asan advanced social technology

(F-AST)

Towards Latvian Foresight Network: 2003-2008

Latvian Council of

Science

Latvian Ministry of Agriculture

Ministry of Agriculture,

Latvian Academy of

Sciences,

Latvian Academy of

Agricultural and

Forestry Sciences

agreed on the

cooperation

within the

Foresight network

of specialists and

practitioners

2007

Forward Studies

Unit

Latvian Technological

CenterLatvian Academy of

Sciences

Latvian Union of

Scientists

Latvian Academy of Agricultural and

Forestry Sciences

Banking Institution

of Higher Education

Riga Technical University

University of Latvia Receivers and users of the EU

foresight technology transfer

Now, a main objective is to link gains of methodological studies and participation in EU foresight projects to entrepreneurial and innovative

use of foresight in Latvian universities and SME’s

Since 2007

The Riga Technical University• research on the use of information

technologies for foresight methods, developing the knowledge management systems for SME’s

The University of Latvia studies and exercises

• foresight and futures–oriented technology analysis for innovation and technology marketing

• integration of technologies of natural sciences and foresight within the university research

• foresight and S&T policy making

Networks and collaboration in projects used by Latvian foresight specialists to participate in activities of the European Research / Foresight area and the global futures community

The EC, DG RTD, and Joint Research Centre - IPTS supported initiativesEC, DG Enterprise and Industry, IREThe Millennium ProjectThe European Foresight Monitoring NetworkSCAR Agricultural ForesightCOST A22 Shaping Tomorrow Foresight Network, etc.

A.Puga. A Latvian experience addressing issues of the foresight innovation.International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2007, Vol.3, No.4, pp. 369-387

About a project "Latvia towards Knowledge Societies of Europe: new options for entrepreneurship and employment achieving the goals of the Lisbon Strategy“ 2003-2007






The European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN) monitors ongoing and emerging foresight activities and disseminates information about these activities

Global Foresight Outlook 2007: Mapping Foresight in Europe and the rest of the World

For the period of 2004-2007, talking to experts, assisted by correspondents, looking at existing reports, browsing the Internet, the data was collected from a total of 1650 foresight initiatives and projects

Spain 43

Estonia 8

Latvia 5

Lithuania 1



http://www.foresight-network.eu/files/reports/efmn_mapping_2007.pdf

• Relevance Trees (2)• Morphological Analysis (4)• Gaming (4)• Bibliometrics (7)• Multi-criteria Analysis (11)• Cross-Impact Analysis (12)• Structural analysis (13)• Citizen Panels (28)• Stakeholder Mapping (30)• Backcasting (42)• Essays (50)• Modelling and simulation (52)• Environmental Scanning (69)• Technology Roadmapping (76)• SWOT Analysis (107)• Megatrend Analysis (110)• Key Technologies (120)• Delphi (120)• Questionnaire / Survey (121)• Interview s (127)• Trend Extrapolation (133)• Brainstorming (157)• Other methods (158)• Futures Workshops (195)• Scenarios (324)• Expert Panels (397)• Literature Review (437)

Mapping frequencies of use of methods(Global Foresight Outlook 2007, EFMN)

10 of used methods in Latvian foresight exercises (2003-2007)

Scenarios

Delphi Futures Workshops

Priority Setting

Trend Extrapolation

Strategic Conversation

Brainstorming

Literature Review

Structural Analysis

Expert Panels

BARRIERS

Spread of foresight in universities

CHALLENGES

To accept new methodologies, new approaches and paradigms of collective learning and sharing knowledge, of analysing structures and understanding in-depth current processes – both focused research issues and context (e.g., STEEPV domains - the country, Europe, and the world), engage in knowledge work using quantitative and qualitative methods to develop alternative futures, and search for consensus between different stakeholders making today's decisions to shape the future (mid- and long-term horizon)



Undertake foresight when it’s possible to act on the results

EU

Iron curtain

Iron cage

Unlike the transfer of physical objects, the transfer of social technologies asks individuals in the target location to follow what transferred technologies suggest. Dr. Masahiro Matsuura

Education and learning for sustainable development

To accept new methodologies, new approaches and paradigms of collective learning and sharing knowledge, of analysing structures and understanding in-depth current processes – both focused research issues and context (e.g., STEEPV domains - the country, Europe, and the world), engage in knowledge work using quantitative and qualitative methods to develop alternative futures, and search for consensus between different stakeholders making today's decisions to shape the future (mid- and long-term horizon)

Sustainable development is an ethical challenge and a scientific concept

UNESCO

International partnership, using and integrating F – AST into

innovative initiatives



University of Latvia

Thanks !

[email protected]

Economy & Finance

Foresight technology