Uganda – From Billions to Trillions

How can Uganda bolster its economy using

Domestic Resources Mobilisation and Private-

Public Partnerships?

Tables of contents

1. Millennium Development Goals – Results and lessons learnt

2. Sustainable Development Goals – How to go from billions to trillions to finance Uganda’s SDGs

3. The Way Forward Domestic Resources Mobilisation Private-Public Partnerships Priority PPP projects Gaps in PPP successes

Uganda’s Millennium Development Goals – Progress Report

ACHIEVED Uganda achieved to half the proportion of people living in extreme poverty in 2010, and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger in 2012.

SOME PROGRESS, BUT SLOW As of 2010, figures regarding Ugandan universal primary education stagnated, although the literacy rate of both men and women between 15-24 year olds have risen, and reflect greater equality between men and women.

Text: Millennium Development Goals Report for Uganda 2013. Graphics: United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

SOME PROGRESS, BUT SLOW The under-five mortality rate has been very slow between 2000-06, but accelerated greatly since 2006, and if this rate of progress is maintained, Uganda has a chance to meet the MDG target in 2015.

ACHIEVED, ON TRACK As of 2012, Uganda achieved gender parity in primary education, although there remain some gaps between men and women in secondary and tertiary education. Women hold 35% of seats in Parliament.

SOME PROGRESS, BUT SLOW Uganda has made some progress in terms of access to care after childbirth and proportions of births attended by a skilled health personnel, however it is unlikely to meet the targeted reduction in maternal mortality by 2015.Text: Millennium Development Goals Report for Uganda 2013. Graphics: United Nations

Millennium Development Goals.

STAGNANT, SOME REGRESSAL Uganda is not a significant contributor to the global environmental crisis, however it still struggles with loss in biodiversity. The proportion of Uganda’s land area covered by forests was 15% in 2010, compared to 18% in 2005 and 25% in 1990.ON TRACK In cooperation with international partners, Uganda has dealt comprehensively with its debt to make it sustainable in the long term, it is also extending the access to information and communications technologies.

STAGNANT, SOME REGRESSAL Although progress has been in registered in reducing the burden of all three diseases, particularly malaria and tuberculosis, the HIV/AIDS prevalence rate among the 15-24 age group has increased.

Text: Millennium Development Goals Report for Uganda 2013. Graphics: United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

Findings

Uganda achieved MDG success mainly on two fronts; halving the number of people living in absolute poverty and capping debt sustainability.

Out of the 19 MDG targets, Uganda has attained, or is on track to attaining 10, is stagnant on 6, and reversed on one.

National and local ownership remained low throughout implementation of the MDGs in Uganda. Consequently, the National Development Plan was not aligned with the MDGs, which resulted in a separate financing, implementation and reporting framework, and mixed success on Uganda’s MDGs.

LéO Africa Forum (2015), Silo Fighters (2015)

The success of the post-2015 development agenda depends largely on the degree of ownership experienced by citizens, communities and their national government.

World Resources Institute

The Way Forward

Where should Uganda focus its energy to become a Middle Income Country by 2040? ► Uganda should build on its momentum – the successes of a number of MDGs – while simultaneously boost some of its lagging sectors of development.

Education (MDGs 2 and 3) Health (relating to MDGs 4, 5, and 6) Infrastructure and energy (MDG 7)

How?► Domestic Resources Mobilisation (DRM)► Public-Private partnerships (PPPs)

Domestic Resources Mobilisation – From billions to trillions In the fiscal year 2014/2015, the Uganda Revenue Authority collected

US$2.8 billion. This is 13% of GDP in 2014/2015 (lagging behind its East African

neighbors Kenya and Tanzania, at 15% and 17% respectively), and almost 3 times the ODA Uganda received in 2013.

Uganda could achieve the Billions to Trillions shift (assuming current levels of ODA) by further improving its DRM and encouraging the crowding in of private resources (PPPs).

Private-Public Partnerships

In order to realise its vision of becoming a Middle Income Country by 2040, Uganda cannot solely rely on increasing DRM. It will need the private sector as an engine of economic growth.

Uganda’s strengths: strong government will and positive mindset, wide range of opportunities

Its weaknesses: low institutional development and inadequate PPP skills.

Uganda has already identified a number of high priority projects with high probabilities of success to bolster confidence in both public and private sectors on PPP as a delivery model.

PPP Priority Projects

Uganda’s National Development Plan’s key PPP priority projects required to accelerate the transformation of the economy to a middle income state are in the sectors of Energy, Transport, Health, Industry, and Education.

Most of these projects are closely aligned with the SDGs in terms of environment (hydro-power stations), poverty reduction (creation of phosphate industry in the East, boosting tourism with the upgrade of Entebbe Airport), and health (creation of maternal and neonatal care hospitals).

Gaps in PPP feasibility

Although PPPs are one of the only way forward in Uganda’s quest to transform billions to trillions to finance its sustainable development, PPPs can only finance so many aspects of development. Other – more qualitative rather than quantitative – aspects of development, such as gender equality, or peace and justice, are difficult to ‘finance’ through PPPs. They do not figure in Uganda’s National Development Plan, although there is still a gap to bridge in terms of gender and class equality.

These qualitative aspects of development require a behavioral shift, which can be achieved if it is consciously fed into the various PPP projects the Uganda government is planning to undergo (some areas of gender and class equality can be education, health, or employment).

Conclusion

Generally, Uganda is on the right track to achieve its vision of becoming a middle income country by 2040, and of bridging some of the gaps left in the rundown of the Millennium Development Goals, while simultaneously achieving a good number of the Sustainable Development Goals (especially regarding poverty reduction). However, Uganda’s vision of economic wealth do not perfectly align with the ecological mission of the SDGs, and Uganda will have to sacrifice one for the other.