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Steven A. Falci, Vice President Sustainable Investment - KBC Asset Management Limited - Ireland
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www.kbcam.com1
Global Investment Opportunities in Water
TBLI Conference Europe -2009 Steven Falci, CFA – Vice President Sustainable Investment
22
World’s Changing Demographic
Profile
World’s Changing Demographic
Profile
Natural Resources: Supply/Demand
Imbalance
Natural Resources: Supply/Demand
Imbalance
Investment Solutions
Regulation Emissions Targets Renewables Targets Tax Incentives Water Standards
Infrastructure Water Delivery Energy Grid Energy Efficient Building Transportation
Clean Technology Energy Generation Energy Storage Energy Efficiency Water Quality
Global Mega Trends &Sustainable Investment Solutions
Climate Change: Operating in a
Carbon ConstrainedWorld
Climate Change: Operating in a
Carbon ConstrainedWorld
3
KBCAM Environmental Strategies
KBCAM Water
KBCAM Alternative
Energy
KBCAM Climate Change
KBCAM Agribusiness
KBCAM Global Environmental
Solutions
December 2000 December 2000 February 2007 April 2008 July 2009
Rising Water Demand
Constrained Supply
Regulatory divers to support water
quality
Need to update & extend
infrastructure
Increased global energy demand
Limited supply of fossil fuels
Climate Change
Falling costs of renewable energy
Security of Fuel Supply
Demographic changes
Drive to limit emissions
Political, legislative and regulatory push
Clean tech advancements contributing to
solutions
Growing, more affluent
population
Changing diets and increased consumption
Supply of arable land constrained by urbanisation
Structural investment in
machinery and irrigation to
increase yield
Demographic Changes
Natural Resource Supply/Demand
imbalance
Climate Change
44
Investment Thesis - Water
Investment Opportunities
Drivers
Demand GrowthSupply
ProblemsSupply
Problems RegulationRegulation Technological AdvancementTechnological Advancement
Demand GrowthDemandGrowthDemandGrowth
55
Natural Resource Demand
Source: UN Population Division, FAO, USDA, EIA, WRI, UN Joint Database, Goldman Sachs Research Estimates
World development indices 1950 to 2030E (rebased to 100)
1950
= 1
00
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E 2030E
PopulationEnergy demand
Urban population
Grain consumption
Real GDP per capitaCarbon emissions
Projections
66
Water Demand
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, German Ministry of Environment
1990 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010 2025
1000
900
800
700600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Global Water Consumption
Rel
ativ
e G
row
th r
ate
Global Population
77
Water Supply
Water has NO substitute
Underground29%
Lakes &Rivers<1%
Frozen70%
FreshWater3%
Oceans97%
88
Regulation
Stricter quality standards and enforcement Water Framework Directive in Europe US Water Resources Development Act, EPA New national standards for drinking water quality in China Renewed focus on wastewater treatment
Issues around water on the agenda for policymakers
Proactive regulation to encourage investment
99
Technology
Innovative technology solutions Desalination UV Filtration Metering Efficiency Leakage Water Quality Testing
1010
Infrastructure Spending
Source: OECD estimates
17%
10%
-2%
34%
49%42%
X% Growth in annual average spending
Telecoms ElectricityT&D
Electricitygeneration
WaterRailRoad
US
$bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 – 2010E 2010 – 2020E
Annual average infrastructure spending 2000–10E & 2010–20E
1111
Identifying opportunities in the Water Cycle
Stage 4 Secondary disinfection
treatment prior to discharge into the
environment
Stage 3 Residential, commercial
and industrial water use
Stage 2
Filtration andDisinfectionprocess
Stage 1 Sources of water: ground or surface water
1212
Identifying the Global Sectors
Investment Opportunities
Drivers
Demand GrowthSupply
ProblemsSupply
Problems RegulationRegulation Technological AdvancementTechnological AdvancementDemand Growth
DemandGrowthDemandGrowth
DistributionDistribution InfrastructureInfrastructure Technology SolutionsTechnology Solutions
No bottled waterNo bottled water
1313
Strategic Positioning
Source: KBCAM, Data as at
31.09.09.
WaterTechnology
WaterInfrastructure
Water/ WasteWater Utilities
Actual
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
32.335.0
37.335.0
30.4 30.0
Strategic
Sector Weighting
1414
Stock Selection and Portfolio Construction
Financials
• Balance Sheet• Access to capital
• Quality of Earnings
Financials
• Balance Sheet• Access to capital
• Quality of Earnings
Valuation
•FCF Models•Valuation Multiples
Valuation
•FCF Models•Valuation Multiples
Sector Analysis
•Life cycle of sector•Thematic drivers
Sector Analysis
•Life cycle of sector•Thematic drivers
Company Analysis
•Life Cycle of company•Structure & quality of management
•Product & services range •Positioning relative to competitors
Company Analysis
•Life Cycle of company•Structure & quality of management
•Product & services range •Positioning relative to competitors
Portfolio ConstructionStrong Fundamentals
ValuationSector exposure reflect thematic drivers
Desired risk characteristics
Portfolio ConstructionStrong Fundamentals
ValuationSector exposure reflect thematic drivers
Desired risk characteristics
15
Water Fundamentals - 2010
Capital Expenditure 2009 – 15% fall in water equipment 2010 – 2011 strong recovery expected
Emerging Trends for 2010 Restocking Funding – Stimulus / Bond Issuance
Cost cutting efforts poised to increase profitability as demand picks up
Long-terms supply/demand, infrastructure drivers intact
Source: Global Water Intelligence, May 2009
16
Stimulus & Expenditures
Global stimulus spending expected to benefit 2010
$80bn focused on water
Predominantly China and the US
US EPA Water budget set to rise 150%
Green Stimulus ($500bn) – Theme Allocation
EnergyEfficiency
64%
Water16%
Renewable8%
OtherLow Carbon
12%
Buildings 16%Lo C Vech 4%
Rail 24%
Grid 18%
16
17
Attractive Valuation
PE Chart
Source: KBCAM as at 30/09/2009
Dec‘08
25
20
15
10
5
0Jun‘07
Sep‘07
Dec‘07
Mar‘08
Jun‘08
Sep‘08
MSCI World
Water
Jun‘09
Mar‘09
Sept‘09
18
Water in a Global Equity PortfolioAttractive Risk/Return
KBC Water Fund (Gross) DJ UBS Commodity Index MSCI World RI (€) S&P Composite FTSE100
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
-10.00 %
-20.00 %
Tota
l Retu
rn (
Cum
ula
tive in
EU
R)
10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% 22.00% 24.00%
Volatility pa
Volatility vs Total ReturnHorizon: 5 Years to September 30 2009
Source: KBCAM and Datastream
KBC Water Fund
1919
Why Invest in Water Strategies?
Long term secular trends driving investment in solutions to environmental challenges
Political and regulatory support continue to grow and support investment
Fiscal stimulus packages are targeting “green” initiatives
Attractive Risk / Return Characteristics
Extremely attractive valuations with stronger outlooks for earnings growth
KBC create portfolios focused on pure-plays which most effectively harness the investment opportunities
that exist in each theme
KBC create portfolios focused on pure-plays which most effectively harness the investment opportunities
that exist in each theme
20
Disclaimers
Important InformationKBC Eco Fund of which KBC Eco Fund Water, KBC Eco Fund Alternative Energy, KBC Eco Fund Climate Change are sub-funds; KBCAM Institutional Fund Plc of which KBC Water and KBC Alternative Energy and KBC Eco Agri Fund are sub-funds are unregulated collective investment schemes for the purposes of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ("the Act") and, as such, their promotion by KBC Asset Management Ltd in the United Kingdom is restricted by section 238 of the Act. Accordingly, this presentation is to be communicated only to and is directed only at existing participants in the scheme and persons falling within the definition of "eligible counterparty" or "professional" in the glossary to the rules of the Financial Services Authority. Units in the scheme are available only to such persons. Persons of any other description should not rely on or act upon the contents of this presentation.
If you are not an existing participant in the scheme and are in any doubt as to whether you fall within the definition of "eligible counterparty" or “professional" you must not rely on or act upon the contents of this presentation unless you have taken professional advice which has confirmed that you fall within one of these definitions.
Cautionary Note The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and you may not get back your original investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Projected / simulated performance has been included for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The views expressed are those of KBC Asset Management Ltd and should not be construed as investment advice.
KBC Asset Management Ltd is authorised by the Irish Financial Regulator and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of UK business