Population and Development

Discussion pointWhat is the pattern of population growth in the world?How does population growth stimulate the development? Briefly explain in terms of Keynes and Lewis model.What are the causes of population growth? Will population continue to increase in the world?What are the consequences of increasing life expectancy and aging in the developing world?Why will the population of underdeveloped countries be higher in 2050? Why will it decrease in Europe and other developed countries?What are the demographic characteristics of Bangladesh? Case studies: Causes of population growth in Bangladesh and Population as asset or liability in Bangladesh

Population Growth Was Very Slow in the Earlier Years of Human Existence, but Has Accelerated in the Past 250 Years

Source: Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (2009).

Time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Stages of Demographic Transition

WORLD POPULATION OUTLOOK 1950-2050

Total population 2010 is 6.90 billion and for 2050 will reach 9.08 billionIn spite of higher population for the future, the growth rate of the population is expected to fall due to the decline in fertility rate and the toll taken by the HIV/AIDS pandemic in some countries.However, the death rate declined and the causes of death changed towards Cancer and Cardiovascular diseases.Fertility rate decline – family planningIncreasing population but decrease in average annual growth rate. e.g. 1.1% in 2009, but 0.43% to 0% in 2050

6

Global Population GrowthA Developing Country Phenomenon

0

12

34

5

67

89

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision, medium variant.

Developing countries

Developed countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

2075 2100 2125 2150

Ann

ual I

ncre

men

ts

0

2

4

6

8

10

Popu

latio

n si

ze

Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150 Millions Billions Billions

Ann

ual i

ncre

men

ts

Popu

latio

n si

ze

Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)

No population explosion after 2050!!

Population Growth Inhibits Development

Population stabilizes at the level of subsistence

“Whenever human beings obtain more than mere subsistence, their numbers go up until everybody is back at the level of subsistence”- Malthus

Population growth and Development

Population Growth Stimulates Development

• Creation of “Effective Demand”

• Supply of labour at a cheaper wage

Keynes and Lewis content population growth as stimulating development through -

During 18 th and 19 th Centuries rapid population growth in developed world contributed to steady economic growth predicted by Keyes and Lewis

POPULATION OUTLOOK BY REGION 1950-2050

World population growth will be concentrated in developing countries for the foreseeable futurePopulation for Asia, Africa, Sub Saharan Africa, Middle East, North America and South America will increase substantiallyPopulation for European countries and Former Soviet Union tends to fall for the foreseeable futureNot much different for the population for Oceania and Baltic region

Europe is the only world region projected to decline in population by 2050.

728

1,941

668

778

457

549

326

885

3,8755,385Asia

Africa

Europe

LatinAmerica/Caribbean

North America

20502005

Millions

Ageing and related problemThe world's elderly population (60 +) is the fastest growing age group. Population ageing is a global phenomenon that is now occurring fastest in low and middle-income countries. By 2050 about 80% of the elderly will be living in developing countries With the increase in the life expectancy of the world population ageing is now a global issue. Elder abuse is on the increase as the social dynamics change. physical, psychological, emotional, financial due to neglect.

Ageing and related problemImpacts of an Ageing population:

-Increase in the dependency ratio -Increase government spending on health care and pensions -Fall in productivity and growth of the country -Shortage of labor force -Changing sectors within the economy

Government responses to an ageing population: -Raise the retirement age -Increase the importance of the private sector in providing pension

and health care -Increase tax to pay for pension cost.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Period

90

80

70

60

50

40

30Exp

ecta

tion

of li

fe a

t birt

h (y

ears

)

More developed

World

Less developedLeast developed

Source: Population division of the Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, United States Secretariat (2003). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations.

Life expectancy trends and Aging

Population of Bangladesh, Growth Rate per Annum and Density Per Sq. Km. Area, 1700- 2011

Year Population(in million)

Growth rate Density per Sq. Km.

1700175017701800185018811891190119111921193119411951196119741981199120012011

17191517202527293233364244557690

111131142

-0.20-1.200.400.300.900.800.690.940.600.741.700.502.262.482.322.171.541.34

------

196214225241285299374518609755876936964

Sources: M. Obaidullah, n.d.; Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 2011. 15

The historical trend of population growth rate suggests that the estimated population of 17

million in 1700 took 230 years to double in 1931.

The second doubling took only 43 years, i.e., the population of 1931 doubled its size in 1974.

Third doubling occurred in just about 30 years in 2005.

Most Populous Countries with Density, 2010 & 2050

Source: PRB, 2010 World Population Data Sheet, BBS 2011, and Mabud 2009

2010 2050 Country Population

(millions) Population

Density/Sq. Km. Country Population

(millions)

China 1,338 140 India 1,748

India 1,189 362 China 1,437

United States 310 32 United States 423

Indonesia 235 124 Pakistan 335

Brazil 193 23 Nigeria 326

Pakistan 185 232 Indonesia 309

Nigeria 158 171 Bangladesh 226

Bangladesh 142 964 Brazil 215

Russia 142 8 Ethiopia 174

Japan 127 337 Congo. Demo. Rep. 166

Percentage Distribution of the Population by Broad Age Groups and Dependency Ratio, 1911-2005

Year Broad Age Groups Dependency Ratio

0-14 Yrs. 15-59 Yrs. 60+ Yrs.1911 42.3 53.3 4.4 881921 42.3 53.6 4.1 S71931 41.9 54.9 3.2 821941 41.4 55.1 3.5 S21951 42.2 53.5 4.4 871961 46.0 48.8 5.2 1051974 48.0 46.3 5.7 1161981 46.7 47.8 5.5 1091991 45.1 49.5 5.4 1022001 39.4 54.9 5.7 762005 37.9 55.9 6.2 79

Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 1999 and 200618

Ageing Situation in Bangladesh

Year Total Population (in million)

Population (60+) % of the total

2001 130.02 7.97 6.02006 141.80 8.49 6.12011 151.41 9.77 6.52016 160.99 11.32 7.02021 171.71 14.10 8.22026 182.24 18.07 9.92031 191.61 22.15 11.62036 199.52 27.34 13.72041 206.46 31.89 15.42046 212.85 36.93 17.42051 218.64 44.10 20.2

Declining FertilityYear, Source TFR

1960-62, NIS1963-65, NIS1966-68, NIS

1975, BFS1983, CPS1985, CPS1989, CPS1991, CPS

1993-1994, BDHS1996-1997, BDHS1999-2000, BDHS

2004, BDHS2007, BDHS

2010, BMMS

7.67.06.06.3

4.944.614.884.263.403.303.303.002.702.5

6.3

5.1

4.3

3.4 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.7

1975BFS

1989BFS

1991CPS

1993-94BDHS

1996-97BDHS

1999-2000

BDHS

2004BDHS

2007BDHS

Trends in total fertility rate

Demographic Profile of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated country in the world, 1,237.51 persons per square kilometer. (Based on the CIA World Fact Book 2012 )

Male and female ratio is 104: 100 Rural population higher than urban population (73:37) Total civilian labor force was about 76 million, About 45 percent labor force is engaged in agricultural activities Unemployment rate increased to 5.1 per cent in 2009 that does not reflect severity, except looking the under-employment rate of 28.7 per cent. (Total 33.8 percent) Per capita GNI in Bangladesh :1,190 USD (Source: BBS, 2013-14) Real GDP growth rate 6.12% (Source: BBS, 2013-14)

Demographics of Bangladesh

Current Population: 161,083,804 (CIA World Fact Book 2013, July 2012 estimate )

Population growth rate:

1.579% (2012 est.)

Birth rate: 22.53 births/1,000 population (2012 est.)

Death rate: 5.71 deaths/1,000 population (July 2012 est.)

Life expectancy: 70.06 years (2013 est.)–male: 68.21 years –female: 71.98 years (2012 est.)Fertility rate: 2.55 children born/woman (2012

est.)Infant mortality rate: 48.99 deaths/1,000 live births

Census YearPopulation

(million)Percent

Average Annual Growth Rate

1901 .70 2.43 -

1911 .81 2.55 1.39

1921 .88 2.64 0.85

1931 1.07 3.02 2.00

1941 1.54 3.66 3.59

1951 1.82 4.33 1.69

1961 2.64 5.19 3.75

1974 6.27 8.78 6.62

1981 13.23 15.18 10.63

1991 22.46 20.15 5.43

2001 28.61 23.10 3.15

2008 36.31 25.10 3.37

Growth Rate of Urban Population 1901-2008

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2009.

Dhaka Compared to Other Urban Agglomerations in 2010 and 2025

Rank Agglomeration 2010 Population

(million)

Rank Agglomeration 2025Population

(million)1. Tokyo 36.7 1. Tokyo 37.12. Delhi 22.2 2. Delhi 28.63. Sao Paulo 20.3 3. Mumbai 25.84. Mumbai 20.0 4. Sao Paulo 21.75. Mexico City 19.5 5. Dhaka 20.96. New York 19.4 6. Mexico City 20.77. Shanghai 16.6 7. New York 20.68. Kolkata 15.6 8. Kolkata 20.19. Dhaka 15.0 9. Shanghai 20.0

10. Karachi 13.1 10. Karachi 18.7