© new energy finance, 2004-2009

Global Trends in Clean Energy InvestmentTBLIMichael LiebreichChairman & CEONew Energy Finance

Yokohama, 28th May 2009

2

Global new investment in clean energy, 2004 – 2008

10% of global energy infrastructure spend

But the top-line hides what is happening in the past few quarters

5x increase from low level by around between 2004 and 2007

5% Growth

59% Growth

Note: Adjusts for reinvested equity. Total value includes estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: New Energy Finance

58% Growth

68% Growth

[v9.02]

$35bn

2004

$60bn

2005

$93bn

2006

$148bn

2007

$155bn

2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

3

Note: Values as of 13 May 2009; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003.

Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg

Exposure to energy prices

Early stage

Capital Hungry

NEX AMEX Oil NASDAQ S&P 500

NEX Clean Energy Index: 2003 - 200720082009

Global third party new investment in clean energyQ1 2004 – Q1 2009 ($bn)

Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. 3rd party investment only (i.e. does not include corporate and government R&D, or small residential scale projects). Does not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

[v9.04]

Source: New Energy Finance

4.33.1 3.5

5.67.4

8.6 8.3

11.2 11.6

19.6

14.9

22.723.7 24.4

28.4

41.2

28.3

37.6

32.5

23.9

13.3

Q1'04

Q2'04

Q3'04

Q4'04

Q1'05

Q2'05

Q3'05

Q4'05

Q1'06

Q2'06

Q3'06

Q4'06

Q1'07

Q2'07

Q3'07

Q4'07

Q1'08

Q2'08

Q3'08

Q4'08

Q1'09

ASOC new investment in clean energyQ1 2004 – Q1 2009 ($bn)

[v9.04]

Source: New Energy Finance

1.8

4.5

6.77.2

6.46.0

6.9

5.6

3.83.84.1

2.8

1.82.3

1.01.11.21.01.0

0.50.8

Q1'04

Q2'04

Q3'04

Q4'04

Q1'05

Q2'05

Q3'05

Q4'05

Q1'06

Q2'06

Q3'06

Q4'06

Q1'07

Q2'07

Q3'07

Q4'07

Q1'08

Q2'08

Q3'08

Q4'08

Q1'09

27.8

21.9

15.9

11.7

4.6

4.3

4.1

3.5

3.4

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.7

1.1Turkey

Netherlands

Denmark

Portugal

India

United Kingdom

China

United States

Asset finance Public markets VC/PE

Q1'04

Q2'04

Q3'04

Q4'04

Q1'05

Q2'05

Q3'05

Q4'05

Q1'06

Q2'06

Q3'06

Q4'06

Q1'07

Q2'07

Q3'07

Q4'07

Q1'08

Q2'08

Q3'08

Q4'08

Q1'09

VCPE Public markets Asset financing

Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Financial sector investment only (i.e. Corporate and government R&D, & small residential scale projects not included). Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

6

It’s exciting when you have a real crisis on your hands, when you have spent half your political life dealing with humdrum issues like the environment…

Margaret Thatcher, 1982

Attitude to the environment and economy – Old School

7

Finding the new driver of our economy is going to be critical. There is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy…

Barack Obama, 2008

Attitude to the environment and economy – New School

By country By type

Stimulus components targeted at clean energy

198.3

0.8

2.5

2.5

2.6

3.2

3.4

7.7

7.7

10.3

11.3

11.7

65.9

68.7China

US

Japan

EU-27

Germany

South Korea

Spain

Australia

UK

Italy

France

Brazil

Canada

Total

12%

8%

1%

2%

10%

20%

10%

n/d

3.5%

2.5%

7%

7%

2.5%

Source: New Energy Finance, government agenciesNote: Estimates based on disclosed information, as of 18 May 2009. Percentages indicate percentage of total stimulus which is dedicated to clean energy. N/d indicates that the total stimulus sum was not disclosed.

[v9.02]

122.3

40.3

27.2

8.4

198.3

Efficiency/Grid

AllRenewables

Transportation

Unspecified

Total

99

Wind: top project finance lenders, EU-27, 2007 & 2008(€m and %)

Source: New Energy Finance

[v9.02]

Note: Project finance lending converted to EUR at constant rate of 0.78968 EUR to USD

Merged/ Acquired

-4% to-6%

Reversion to local markets

-9% to-12%

Shift to short tenor lending

-20%to -30%

Increase in RE lending

+4% to+10%

188

192

216

216

224

226

238

305

307

307

356

383

387

461

579

592

344

619

720

782

1,977Royal Bank of Scotland

European Investment Bank (EIB)

Nord LB

Grupo BBVA

Nordic Investment Bank (NIB)

HSH Nordbank

BNP Paribas

412Fortis Bank SA/NV

UniCredit

ING Bank

Banco Espirito Santo

Grupo Santander

Banesto

Caja Madrid

Millennium BCP

Sabadell Bank Group

Credit Agricole SA

La Caixa de Barcelona (La Caixa)

Banque Federale des BP

Groupe Caisse d’Epargne

Gruppo Banca Intesa

Commerzbank Group Net impact- 23% to

- 40%

10

Cost of Debt, Typical European Wind Farm

Source: New Energy Finance; BloombergNotes: Data as of 27 May 2009; Term Swap: 8 year Euro swap rate.

ECB Rate 6M Euribor Term Swap Credit Insurance Project Spread

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09

Weighted average silicon price for contracts before and after 30 September 2008, 2008-2015: $/kg

Source: New Energy Finance Silicon Price Survey, Issue III

Note: This is based on the results published in Issue III of New Energy Finance Silicon Forward Price Index. “As at end of Q4 2008” refers to contracts as they stood before 31 December 2008, some of which have since been renegotiated. ‘As at end of Q3 2008’ refers to contracts as they stood before 30 September 2008, some of which have since been renegotiated.

198

135

55606770

8394

107

145

100

5867727588

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prices in contracts as at end of Q4 2008

Prices in contracts as at end of Q3 2008

• Contract prices have dropped since Q4 2008

• High-priced silicon contracts have been renegotiated or cancelled

• Latest silicon spot price is $60-90/kg and Chinese silicon price is on the low end.

Note: Retail prices are paid by the consumer, factory-gate by distributor. Updated as of February 2009. Construction of experience curve based on Maycock data for factory-gate prices to 1975, parameters fitted to monthly retail price curve of Solarbuzz data from December 2002.

Source: Solarbuzz, Maycock, SEC filings, New Energy Finance

The crystalline silicon module experience curve: $/W

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Dec-02 Apr-04 Sep-05 Jan-07 Jun-08 Oct-09 Feb-11

Experience Curve for retail prices

Historical retail price data - Solarbuzz

Overshoot - retail

Sustained high- profit growth

Soft landing - retail

Chinese factory- gate prices

$/W

44%

13

Figure 1. Levelised cost of energy for solar technology, with California investor-owned utility weighted average market electricity prices

Source: New Energy Finance, 2009

Note: 8% return on capital, unlevered financing. 25-year project and contract life. Project-specific information attached in slides 3 and 4.

164

160

146

8% return

Parabolic trough STEG

c-Si tracking PV

CdTe thin film PV

Weighted daytime wholesale power price, by utility

Southern California Edison

San Diego Gas & Electric

14

Biofuels: new build asset investment waves ($bn)

Source: New Energy FinanceNotes: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Other FeedstocksSugarcane

3.3

8.2

9.3

3.02.5

3.1

6.0

1.00.4 0.7 0.8

[v9.02]

Biofuels: Next-Gen VC/PE, Q4 2006 to Q3 2008(Investors and number of deals by country)

Source: New Energy Finance

16

7

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2General Motors

Advanced Equities

Arch Venture Partners

Capricorn

Draper Fisher Jurvetson

Quercus Trust / David Gelbaum

Vantage Point Venture Partners

Flagship Ventures

Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers

Khosla Ventures

8

6

3

48

Canada

Others

United Kingdom

United States

Note: Disclosed deals only

16

Global Futures Emissions Scenarios and Investment Required

Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2009, IMF’s World Economic Outlook (January 2009), IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008.

Notes: The data refers specifically to CO2 from fuel combustion and not greenhouse gases.

[v9.02]

Clean energy capital requirement per year: $bn

264

373

502

548

5902020 Peak Scenario

2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

155148

9359

214

269

348

408

461

Global Futures Base Scenario2020 Peak Scenario

Base scenario with recessionBase scenario without recession

20

45

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

25

30

35

40IEA Ref.

IEA 550 ppm

IEA 450 ppm

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (Gtonnes per annum)

17

Institutional investors’ clean energy investment intentionsExpected allocation to clean energy

investments by 2012Expected change to clean energy

allocations by 2012

Source: New Energy Finance

[v9.01]

Based on106Institutions

with$1tr AUM

3%

22%

75%

Less

Unchanged

More57%

54%

50%

48%

42%

36%

32%

41%

40%

44%

48%

55%

54%

65%

Projects

Public Equity

Carbon

Private Equity

Timber andforestry

VentureCapital

Agriculturalcommodities

More LessNo change

© new energy finance, 2004-2009

Michael LiebreichChairman and CEO

+44 20 7092 8803www.newenergyfinance.comwww.newcarbonfinance.commichael.liebreich@newenergyfinance.com

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