Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
How$can$we$make$growth$more$inclusive?The$Case$of$Chiapas$
4/14/16 1
[email protected]@miguelsantos129 9
Chiapas9 is9not9only9Mexico´s9poorest9state…
Source: INEGI9(PIB)9y9CONAPO9(Población)
24/14/16
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000 Non:oil$Income$per$capita(constant9pesos92008)
X96.1
3
Large9differences9 in9Mexico9reproduce9 as9in9a9fractal9within9Chiapas
4/14/16
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
GDP$per$capita(constant$pesos$2010)
Source:9PNUD,9con9base9en9Censo92010
X98.5
4
…9it9is9also9the9lowest9growth9rate9amongst9Mexico´s9329states
Source:9INEGI.
4/14/16
3.3%
3.2%
2.8%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Compounded$Annual$Growth$Rate(2003:2013)
5
The9income9gap9between9 Chiapas9and9rest9of9Mexico9keeps9widening
Fuente:9INEGI.
4/14/16
46.1%43.6%
42.7%42.4%
40.4% 41.1%42.1% 42.8% 42.2%
41.2%39.7%
53.4%54.6% 54.0% 53.3% 53.4%
52.2%
54.6% 55.0%
53.0%51.7% 51.3%
52.0% 51.8% 51.1%49.6% 49.0% 49.0%
51.2%49.6% 49.9% 49.3% 50.1%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Non:Oil$GDP$per$capita(as$percentage$of$national$income$per$capita)
Chiapas Guerrero Oaxaca
CAGR92003a2013:1.4%
CAGR92003a2013:0.2%
7
Usual9suspects:9 Is9it9because9 of9education?Strong9investment9 in9education9has9reduced9 the9schooling9gap…
4/14/16
Fuente:9Censo9Poblacional920109(INEGI).9
84/14/16
Usual9suspects:9Is9it9because9of9education?To9earn9the9same9as9a9Mexican9worker9in9Chiapas9you9must9study9a9lot9more
Monthly$income$from$work$and$years$of$schooling
To$earn$the$same$as$a$Mexican$worker$with$6$years$of$schooling,$in$Chiapas$you$
must$have$10$years$of$schooling
94/14/16
Usual9suspects:9Is9it9because9the9quality9of9education?Quality9in9education9does9not9account9for9these9large9differences
Monthly$income$from$work$and$years$of$schooling
Lessons9 from9migrants:9Chiapas9vs.9Rest9of9Mexico9(100%)
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Resto9de9Mexico Chiapas
Total
100.0
67.2
15.1 51.6115.1
118.8
*9Monthly9income,9controlling9for9years9of9schooling,9quality9(ENLACE),9experience,9gender9and9indigenous.
MonthlyIncome
MigrantPremium$
Total$monthlyincome
Rest9of9Mexico Chiapas
4/14/16
MonthlyIncome
MigrantPremium$
Total$monthlyincome
Usual9suspects9 only9account9for9less9 than9oneathird9 of9the9difference9 in9income9between9Chiapas9and9the9rest9of9Mexico
114/14/16
SCHOOLING EXPERIENCE$ FEMALE INDIGENOUS$ RURAL$ EXPLAINED$VARIATION
TOTAL$INCOME$ GAP
Chiapas$vs.$Rest$of$MexicoFactors$associated$to$income$difference
10.4%
2.1%
6.1% 5.3%
9.7% 21.4%
68.7%
The$Scrabble$theory$of$development
The$Scrabble$theory$of$development$in$Chiapas
144/14/16
Economic9Complexity9Index9for9Exports
a0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Tamaulipas
Chihuahu
aQuerétaro
Nuevo9Le
ónMéxico
San9Luis9Po
tosí
Baja9Califo
rnia
Tlaxcala
Morelos
Coahuila
Distrito9Federal
Sono
raHidalgo
Jalisco
Aguascalientes
Guanajuato
Tabasco
Veracruz
Quintana9Ro
oZacatecas
Campeche
Puebla
Durango
Yucatán
Guerrero
Mich
oacán
Baja9Califo
rnia9Sur
Oaxaca
Colim
aCh
iapas
Nayarit
Sinaloa
154/14/16
Economic9Complexity9Index9for9Industries9 (IMSS)
a2.00
a1.50
a1.00
a0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00Querétaro
México
Coahuila
Nuevo9Le
ónCh
ihuahu
aBaja9Califo
rnia
Guanajuato
San9Luis9Po
tosí
Tlaxcala
Puebla
Hidalgo
Distrito9Federal
Jalisco
Tamaulipas
Durango
Aguascalientes
Sono
raZacatecas
Morelos
Mich
oacán
Yucatán
Sinaloa
Veracruz
Colim
aTabasco
Baja9Califo
rnia9Sur
Guerrero
Oaxaca
Nayarit
Chiapas
Quintana9Ro
oCampeche
There9exist9large9difference9 in9economic9complexity9within9Chiapas…
4/14/16 16
Low$Complexity
High$Complexity
Economic9Complexity9increases9 the9explained9variation9of9total9differences9 and9is9higher9 than9any9other9of9the9factors
174/14/16
SCHOOLING EXPERIENCE$ FEMALE INDIGENOUS$ RURAL$ ECI EXPLAINED$VARIATION
TOTAL$INCOME$ GAP
11.6%
2.5%
Chiapas$vs.$Rest$of$MexicoFactors$associated$to$income$difference
5.4% 3.6%
7.8%
16.1% 36.1%
68.7%
What9did9Mexico9export9 in92014?
184/14/16
What9did9Chiapas9export9 in92014?
194/14/16
The9product9space9of9Mexico
204/14/16
The9product9space9of9Chiapas
214/14/16
The9product9space9of9Chiapas
224/14/16
234/14/16
Yazaki is9the9exception9 that9confirms9 the9rule…
1,550$direct$jobs
4/14/16 Octubre,92015 24
25
Transportation9 costs9as9a9regressive9 tax
4/14/16
3009
2339
2009
1209
1209
1109
759
709
609
509
09
509
1009
1509
2009
2509
3009
3509
Director9escuela
Maestro9 de9escuela9(bilingüe)
Trabajadores9Prospera
Electricista Albañil Ayudante9fábrica9Pox
Otros9trabajos9(en9
San9Cristóbal)
Ayudante9albañil
Ayudas9varias9campos9
maíz/frijol
Lavandería
Cruzton:$Daily$salaries$and$cost$of$transportation(40$pesos$round$trip$in$shared$cab)
Salario9diario Salario9día9(neto9de9transporte)
13%
17%
20%
33%
33%
36%
53%
57%
67%
80%
Daily9equivalent9of9monthly9salaries9 (309days) Wage9per9day
Daily9wage9(urban) Daily9wage9(net9of9transport9costs)
26
Identifying9potential9diversification9 opportunities9 at9the9municipality9level
Tuxtla$Gutiérrez Tapachula
San$Cristóbal de$las$Casas Comitán de$Dominguez
4/14/16
27
There9are9not9much9low9hanging9fruits9 in9Chiapas…
4/14/16
28
As9one9may9find9in9places9like9Morelos…
4/14/16
29
Fuente: Censo dePoblación 2010, cálculos propios.
When9you9have9few9letters9 it9is9difficult9to9acquire9new9letters…
4/14/16
Atlas$de$Complejidad$EconómicaFuncionalidades9 y9beneficios9 por9tipos9de9usuarios
30
Tuxtla$Gutierrez San$Cristobal de$las$Casas
ComitánTapachula
So9what9do9we9propose?9Bring9the9mountain9closer9 to9Muhammad
31
Pro:Chiapas:Investment$Promotion
Bring$new$business$models
• Tapachula• Comitan• Palenque• Chilon
• Tuxtla• San9Cristobal• Reforma• Ocosingo
Special$Economic$ZonesAgro:industrial$Zones
324/14/16
San9Cristobal9de9las Casas9has9a9great9potential9as9a9special9zone
Population9density9to9the9south9of9San9Cristobal9 is9very9high
33
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!! !
!!
!
!!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
! !
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
! !
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!! !
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
! !!
!
!
!
!
! !!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
! !
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
! !!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!!
!
!
!
!
! !!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
! !
!
!!
!!
!!
!
!!! !
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
! !
!!
!
! !
!
! !!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!!!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
! !
!!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!
! !
!!!
!
! !
!
!
!
!!
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!!!!
!
! !
!
! ! !
!
!
!
!!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
! !!
! !!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!! !
!
! !!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
! !!
!
!!!
!!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!!
!!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
$+
Buffer Areas
$+ San Cristobal de las Casas! Localities
Buffer 10km
Buffer 20km
Buffer 35km
PopulationHigh : 1527.79
Low : 80.2128
4/14/16
Atlas$de$Complejidad$EconómicaFuncionalidades9 y9beneficios9 por9tipos9de9usuarios
34
Pro:Chiapas:Investment$Promotion
Special$Economic$ZonesAgro:industrial$Zones
Public$transportation:Solve$labor$mobility$bottleneck
Housing$policy:Habitats$vs.$Housing$
Bring$new$business$models
• Tapachula• Comitan• Palenque• Chilon
• Tuxtla• San9Cristobal• Reforma• Ocosingo
4/14/16
Thank$you!
Large9distrust9prevails9beyond9the9family,9associations9 or9cooperatives9 to9pool9assets9and9increase9 returns9are9veryy unlikely
36February,92016
Social network of women in Cruztón
Productive9dialog9workshops…
37February,92016
Productive9dialog9workshops…
38February,92016
Productive9dialog9workshops…
39February,92016
