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Patrick LENAIN, OECD
IBEC CEO CONFERENCE
DUBLIN, FEBRUARY 2014
STRONG AND INCLUSIVEGROWTH IN IRELAND
1. Ireland is back on its feet
2. Innovation & entrepreneurship key to prosperity
3. Business case for inclusive growth
2
MAIN MESSAGES
IRELAND IS BACK
ON ITS FEET
3
4
IRISH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS UP(monthly ESRI & KBC index)
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IRISH JOB CREATION IS POSITIVE(in ‘000s of jobs)
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SUCCESSFUL RETURN TO FINANCIAL MARKETS
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IRISH RECOVERY: GROWTH IS UNDERWAY
0% in 2013
1.9% in 2014
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 94, November 2013http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_outlook-v2013-2-en
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STRONG GROWTH IS NEEDED(GDP, billion €, constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted)
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
100
120
140
160
180
200
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Non-linear trend 1960-2005
Actual GDP
INNOVATION AND
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
KEY TO
PROSPERITY
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IRELAND ATTRACTIVE TO INNOVATORS
• Easy to do business
• Government support
• Talent pool
• Good research centres
• FDI friendly
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BUT LOW INTENSITY OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Birth rate of new businesses in %
Source: Eurostat, 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
• Young firms (up to 5 years) make largest contributions to net job gains.
• Gazelles (successful start-ups) make large contributions to innovation.
• Successful clusters – Medical devices
– Pharmacy
– Computers
– Agri-food
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WHERE DO JOBS COME FROM?YOUNG FIRMS AND “GAZELLES”
IDEAS TO CONSIDER
1. Ease access to government support
2. Balance direct support and R&D tax credits
3. SME Financing remains a challenge
4. Broadband is key
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THE BUSINESS CASE FOR
INCLUSIVE GROWTH
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FIRST CHALLENGE:STILL TOO MANY UNEMPLOYED
0
5
10
15
20
25
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Unemployment rates (%) in 2013
About 280000 jobseekers and 400000 on the live register
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SECOND CHALLENGE: HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT(debt-to-income ratio in %, 2012)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Source: Eurostat
• Avoid scarring effects
• Preserve employability
• Retain skilled workers
• Wellbeing associated with productivity
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THE BUSINESS CASE FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
IDEAS TO CONSIDER
1. Youth Guarantee
2. Skills for expanding sectors
3. Efficiency of labour-market schemes
4. Support social entrepreneurship
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SUMMARY
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• Multiple signs that the recovery is underway.
• Ease young firms’ and gazelle’s access to capital.
• Engage long-term job seekers and indebted families.
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TO SUMMARIZE
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THANK YOU!WWW.OECD.ORG/IRELAND
