16

Long Tandou

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Long Tandou
Page 2: Long Tandou

1. Excellent high-quality business with strong

financial position and growth

2. Asset Undervaluation of 31% with large upside

3. Good dividend yield of 2.04%

4. Small-cap potential

5. Growth through land acquisitions and

operational improvements

Page 3: Long Tandou

Well-diversified water, cropping and pastoral operations and agribusiness services

1. Farming: 56% of revenues 8800 hectares of cotton area, 5000 hectares cereal planting

area in Australian Murray Darling Basin

Future cotton prices favorable

average yield increased to 10.2 bales/hectares: +14%

6% EBIT increase due to record harvest

2. Water: 44% of revenues › One of the largest water portfolios (55 ML) in Murray Darling

Basin › No new licenses to be issued 30% of entitlements by 2019

› 14% EBIT increase

Page 4: Long Tandou

$2 billion market in Australia,

Worldwide: -3.5% decrease in production, +7% in crease in demand positions Tandou to benefit

US cotton acreage declined due to lower prices and

focus on corn/soybean production

Drought in US decreased harvest yields

Cotton price offers upside

Page 5: Long Tandou

$27 billion market with the only large-scale trading

system of limited number of water entitlements

10-year drought caused government to start

buyback program

Supply constant and demand growing

Water entitlements will continue to increase in

value

Page 6: Long Tandou

TAN outperformed ASX 200 index and

competitors

Page 7: Long Tandou

Revenues increase of 34%

EBIT increase of 12%

NOPAT increase of16% increase

EBIT margin increase of 12%

Page 8: Long Tandou

Little debt: D/EV 0.13

High liquidity: current ratio 2.8

EBIT/Interest Expense 10.2

Page 9: Long Tandou
Page 10: Long Tandou
Page 11: Long Tandou

Fair Value of $1.27 min. 40% return

80% return over 2 years

Page 12: Long Tandou

Commodity price risk negligible due to

strong demand and decreased supply

Currency risk low due to Tandou’s

hedges

Little market risk with a beta of 0.49

Page 13: Long Tandou

Dividend yield of at least 2/3 of dividend yield of AAA bond: 2.04%>1.92%

Share price of no more than 2/3 of tangible book value: P/B 86%

Total debt below book value : D/E of 0.13

Current ratio of two or more: 2.8

Earnings have more than doubled in the past 10 years: $1.4 million in 2009 to $6 million in 2013

Page 14: Long Tandou

Total Enterprise Value

Total Equity

Value

Terminal Perpetuity Growth

Rate

Terminal Perpetuity

Growth Rate

2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Discount 6.0% $107.6 $123.6 $146.2 Discount 6.0% $71.7 $87.8 $110.3

Rate 7.0% 83.5 92.6 104.2 Rate 7.0% 47.7 56.7 68.3

(WACC) 8.0% 68.4 74.1 81.0 (WACC) 8.0% 32.5 38.2 45.2

Implied Terminal

EBITDA Multiple

Total Price

Per Share

Terminal Perpetuity Growth

Rate

Terminal Perpetuity

Growth Rate

2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Discount 6.0% 10.9x 12.8x 15.4x Discount 6.0% $0.91 $1.11 $1.40

Rate 7.0% 8.5x 9.6x 11.0x Rate 7.0% 0.61 0.72 0.87

(WACC) 8.0% 6.9x 7.7x 8.5x (WACC) 8.0% 0.41 0.49 0.57

Page 15: Long Tandou

Acquisitions of water and land assets worth more than $32 million and $25.2 million equity raising

demonstrates TAN’s confidence

Projected upside of cotton price enhances return

prospects

Reduction in water entitlements and dryness

increases value of water entitlements

Fortune 500 experienced management team and

new Board member contributes expertise creating

value growth from agricultural assets & operations

18% stake purchase by investor with expertise in

agricultural assets

Page 16: Long Tandou

1. High-quality business with strong growth,

improvements and outperformance of

peers

2. Excellent track record of management

and recent addition of expertise

3. Good dividend yield of 2.04% and

diversification

4. Small-cap lack of coverage positions SCM

to benefit from mispricing

5. Asset Undervaluation of 31% with large

upside