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Mania. Manipulation. MELTDOWN' by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

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Page 1: Mania. Manipulation. MELTDOWN' by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

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Presented at:

www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong

Page 2: Mania. Manipulation. MELTDOWN' by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

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Mania. Manipulation. Meltdown.

Eric Sprott, FCAChief Executive OfficerChief Investment OfficerSenior Portfolio Manager

March 2013

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Forward-Looking StatementsThis presentation contains forward-looking statements which reflect the current expectations of management regarding future growth, results of operations, performance and business prospects and opportunities. Wherever possible, words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “plan”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, and similar expressions have been used to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management’s current beliefs with respect to future events and are based on information currently available to management. Forward-looking statements involve significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements prove incorrect, actual results, performance or achievements could vary materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements contained in this document. These factors should be considered carefully and undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements. Although the forward-looking statements contained in this document are based upon what management currently believes to be reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual results, performance or achievements will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation and Sprott does not assume any obligation to update or revise.

Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Sprott Asset Management LP. Any reference to a particular company is for illustrative purposes only and should not to be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell nor should it be considered as an indication of how the portfolio of any investment fund managed by Sprott Asset Management LP is or will be invested.

The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Funds may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

Disclaimer

Page 4: Mania. Manipulation. MELTDOWN' by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

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The Big Picture

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Official National Debts Continue to Rise

Mark Carney: The global Minsky moment has arrived. Debt tolerance has decisively turned. The initially well-founded optimism that launched the decades-long credit boom has given way to a belated pessimism that seeks to reverse it.

Source: Bank of Canada, Dec 2011

Global Debt to GDP Ratios

Country % Debt to GDP

USA 107.2%

Germany 82.0%

Japan 208.2%

France 86.5%

Canada 83.5%

United Kingdom 86.8%

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However, True Liabilities are Much Larger

Source: Department of Treasury, 2012 Annual Report

$38.5 TrillionPresent Value of Unfunded Liabilities Rising from Social Insurance Costs as of 2012 using GAAP Accounting

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America’s Debt

Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities $38.5TU.S. National Debt $16.6T Expected Value of US Debt and Liabilities $55.1T

U.S. GDP $15.1T (U.S. Debt + Liabilities)/U.S. GDP ~365%

Source: World Bank, Department of Treasury

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Similarly for the UK….

Category Value of Liability (£ bn)

• Public Service Pensions 1408

• Gilt Edged Securities 804

• Provisions 105

• Other Liabilities 379

• Current State Pensions 1120

• Future State Pensions 1211

• Future Pensions 467

Total 5494 (392% of GDP)

Source: Institute of Economic Affairs Blog, October 2011

The True Extent of Government Liabilities is Widely Underreported

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Consumers Remain Burdened

Source: Blytic

2% Increase in Payroll Tax

Gasoline Prices Remain Stubbornly High

Over 47M

Americans are Living off Food Stamps

15% of the

entire American Population Depends on Food Stamps

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Precious Metals Review

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Source: UBS, Sprott Asset Management LP

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Annual Global Gold Production

An

nu

al M

ine

Pro

du

ctio

n in

Me

tric

To

nn

es

Annual Mine Production Has Remained Flat

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Non G7 Central Banks Continue to Purchase Gold

Central banks continued to purchase gold in the fourth quarter at near-record pace, driven by emerging market central banks looking to diversify away from traditional reserve.

Source: World Gold Council

Gold reserves at central banks increased by

145T during Q4 2012

Official central bank gold demand topped

500T in 2012.

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Chinese Gold Imports Remain High

Dec-2009 Apr-2010 Aug-2010 Dec-2010 Apr-2011 Aug-2011 Dec-2011 Apr-2012 Aug-2012 Dec-2012 (20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Gross Exports Net Exports

2011Gross: 428 tonnes

Net: 380 tonnes

2012 Gross: 832 tonnes

Net: 557 tonnes

Hong Kong Gold Exports To China (tonnes)

Source: Censtad

China Has Imported almost 560T of Gold Over the Past 12 Months

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2000 2012E Annualized Change in Demand

Mine Supply Ex. China and Russia 2,294T 2,070T 224T

Reported Central Bank Supply/Demand for Gold Bullion -400T 600T 1,000T

US & Canadian Mint Sales of Gold Coins 9T 45T 36T

Cumulative ETF Holdings (First major ETF Launched in Nov. 2004) 0T 2,600T 325T

Chinese Gold Imports 0T 550T 550T

Indian Consumption Measured Through Gold Imports 535T 700T 165T

Industrial Consumption 350T 460T 110T

2,410T

Gold’s Changing Fundamentals

Source: US Mint, Royal Canadian Mint, World Gold Council, Sprott Estimates

Numbers quoted in metric tonnes

Numbers do not include physical gold purchased privately by Arab Sheiks, Russian Billionaires and Hedge Funds

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Do the Western Central Banks Have Any Gold?

Our analysis of the physical gold market shows that central banks have most likely been a massive unreported supplier of physical gold, and strongly implies that their gold reserves are negligible today.

Source: Markets at a Glance, September 2012, Sprott Research

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Entity Tonnes Held Listed As

UK Government 310T Gold (including gold swapped or on loan)

US Government 8,133T Gold (including gold deposits and, if appropriate, gold swapped)

ECB 10,285T Gold (including gold deposits and gold swapped)

Bank of Japan 765T Gold

Switzerland 1,040T Gold Holdings and Claims from Gold Transactions

Source: Sprott Markets at a Glance, September 2012

Do the Western Central Banks Have Any Gold?

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The Smoking Gun

On a Net Basis, the U.S. Has Exported 2,400T of Gold in the Past 10 Years

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Silver: Investment of the Decade

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The Price Ratio Argument

Historical Silver-to-Gold Ratio: 16:1

Geological In Situ Silver-to-Gold Ratio: 17.5:1

Current Silver-to-Gold Ratio: 55:1

Ratio of Silver-to-Gold Mined Annually: 9.4:1

Source: Bloomberg, Sprott Research

Implied silver price if silver reverted back to 16:1 ratio at $1,600 gold: $100

Dollars traded in GLD:SLV for Past 12 mths: 3.2:1

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Investable Ratio Analysis

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Key TakeawaysComparison of Key Gold-to-Silver Ratios (Ratios in Dollar Terms)

Gold bars and coins in existence (1) ~2.2Bn ounces

Silver bars and coins in existence (1) ~1.9Bn ounces

Value of gold bars and coins in existence to silver bars and coins in existence (1)

68:1

Market value of SPDR Gold Trust to iShares Silver Trust (2) 6.6:1

Dollars of U.S. Mint silver: gold coin sales (3) 1.2:1

Money Raised for PSLV/PHYS since PSLV IPO 1.1:1

Gold Money 1:1

Royal Canadian Mint 1.5:1

The value of all gold bars and coins in existence is ~$3.8T at current prices

The value of all silver bars and coins in existence is ~$56B at current prices

Supply / Inventory of investable gold is significantly higher than the supply of investable silver…

…but investors are choosing to put disproportionately more money to work in silver than in gold…

…and the disparity is even greater in physical coin sales

(1) Gold and silver data according to the CPM Group 2010 Gold Yearbook and CPM Group 2011 Silver Yearbook, respectively.(2) Ratio of market value of GLD to SLV(3) 2012 US Mint Coin Sales sourced from http://www.usmint.gov/

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Silver Gaining Momentum

GLD:SLV ZKB Gold: ZKB Silver

2009 10.39 4.67

2010 5.87 2.52

2011 1.84 1.56

2012 3.23 2.53

ETF Trading Ratios

SILVER GOLD SILVER: GOLD

2008 19,583,500 860,500 23x

2009 28,766,500 1,435,000 20x

2010 34,662,500 1,220,500 28x

2011 39,868,500 1,000,000 40x

2012 33,742,000 744,000 45x

Gold and Silver Sales in Ounces

Source: US Mint (www.usmint.gov)

Source: Bloomberg

PHYS vs PSLV

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Current Markets Overview

How long can investors continue to buy silver at the current ratios

when the availability for investment is only 3:1? We believe this is

one of those times when smart investors will be well rewarded to

“Follow the money.”

Source: Sprott Markets At A Glance, December 2012

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“When I talk to the traders in the rooms selling gold bullion and coins

(sic) when gold had dropped, they said it was like a madhouse, it

was insane. People were buying more coins, more physical gold

during the drop in gold because it represents a buying opportunity.” Source: Blanchard Online, Feb 2013

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Not All Bullion Products Are Created Equal

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Sprott Physical Gold Trust

Sprott Physical Silver Trust

Sprott Physical Platinum & Palladium Trust

NYSE Arca: PHYSTSX: PHY.U

NYSE Arca: PSLVTSX: PHS.U

NYSE Arca: SPPPTSX: PPT.U

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New Paradigm for Precious Metal Miners

Focusing on Shareholder Value Creation

Returning Cash to Shareholders Through Dividends

Pan American Silver

Barrick Corp

GoldCorp

Newmont

Shelving High-Cost Projects

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Concluding Thoughts

The end phase of “Ponzi” finance would appear when additional credit would be required just to cover increasingly burdensome interest payments, with accelerating inflation the end result.

-Bill Gross, Feb 2013

An unknowable tipping point looms over the horizon. When we reach it, outsiders and U.S. citizens alike will become suspicious of our creditworthiness, causing interest rates to rise and the dollar to plummet. Holders of greenbacks will rush to spend their money while it still has some value, causing the prices of goods and stores of value (like gold) to surge.

- Seth Klarman, Feb 2013

Precious Metals Will Continue Outperforming Other Assets Classes

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The Great Wealth Redistribution

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HUI Gold Index Outperformance

Source: Bloomberg

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Gold: The Ultimate Currency

Source: Bloomberg

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Q & A

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Sprott Asset Management LPRoyal Bank Plaza, South Tower200 Bay StreetSuite 2700Toronto, ON M5J 2J1

T: 416 943 6707Toll Free: 1 866 299 9906F: 416 362 4928

Email: [email protected]: www.sprott.com

Contact Information

Follow us on Twitter

@Sprott

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