New base 513 special 07 january 2014

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NewBase 07 January 2015 - Issue No. 513 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

UAE EM: Oil price slump to boost global economic growth The national + NewBase

The oil price slump will probably stimulate higher global economic growth this year, the UAE’s Energy Minister , Suhail Al Mazrouei said.

“We are experiencing an obvious oversupply in the market that needs time to be absorbed,” Suhail Al Mazrouei told The National in an email interview. “Depending on the actual production growth from non-Opec countries this problem could take months or years [to be resolved]. If they act rationally we can see positive corrections during 2015.

“Also the current oil prices could encourage world economic growth higher than the expected, which could drive demand upward.” Brent fell 48 per cent last year. It was down about 1.5 per cent yesterday to $52.30 a barrel at 7.30pm in Abu Dhabi .

The IMF lowered in October its world growth forecast for this year to 3.8 per cent, down from its July forecast of 4 per cent due to weak economic growth in the euro zone and slower growth in major emerging economies.

The IMF has forecast UAE growth at 4.5 per cent for this year on stronger activity in the non-oil sector. The UAE’s economy is forecast to have expanded by 4.8 per cent last year to reach Dh1.54 trillion from Dh1.47tn in 2013, Economy Minister Sultan Al Mansouri has said.

Last month he said GDP will reach Dh1.62tn this year as the government continues to spend despite the oil price decline drawing on surpluses from previous years that will help shield the economy from external oil price shocks.




Crude prices have plummeted as the US shale oil boom last year helped to boost US production to a three-decade high exceeding 9 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). Opec, meanwhile, has continued to pump 30 million bpd and decided on November 27 to maintain output in a bid to to protect market share rather than halt the oil price decline.

The group has forecast demand for its oil will be 28.9 million bpd this year.

To compound the problem, Iraq, the second-largest producer in Opec and the only member allowed unfettered production of oil, and non-Opec member Russia are pumping crude at decades-high levels. Russian oil production rose 0.3 per cent last month to a post-Soviet record of 10.6 million bpd, while Iraq exported at a near 35-year peak of 2.9 million bpd. The Baghdad government has signed an agreement with the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which will help boost national production to 4 million bpd this year. Iraq produced 3.3 million bpd in November, according to Opec in its December monthly report.

In the UAE, the expansion of production levels is set to continue amid lower oil prices, according to Mr Al Mazrouei, with plans under way to boost capacity to 3.5 million bpd by 2017 from the current 3 million bpd.

“Most of the projects are committed and under construction, and we don’t foresee any delays on the capacity expansion,” the minister said. “But building capacity is something and using it is something else. We will always be wise and considerate of the world supply and demand.”

In November, the UAE produced 2.7 million bpd, according to Opec.

“The oil and gas industry in the UAE is well developed and as a mature producer, we are not going to change our plans due to price fluctuation,” said the minister. “We have dealt with such fluctuation in the past and we will not panic this time. There is a world demand increase on crude oil and especially our crude, and we believe the market will stabilise itself eventually.”




Gulfsands Petroleum Encounters Gas in Morocco GP + NewBase

Gulfsands Petroleum on Monday said i t has found gas at Dardara Southeast 1 well (DRC-1), located within the Rharb Centre Permit in Northern Morocco.

The DRC-1 well was drilled to a total depth of 1,153 metres and encountered the primary reservoir target interval on prognosis at a depth of 875 metres.

“Significantly elevated gas readings obtained while drilling, as well as interpretation of geological samples and wireline logs, indicate the presence of a gas bearing sandstone reservoir section of excellent quality,” the company said. Detailed petrophysical evaluation of DRC-1 wireline logs yield an initial interpretation indicating a 53 metres gross thickness of excellent quality reservoir sand between 875-928 metres, with a net gas bearing sand thickness of 16 metres, evaluated average gas saturation of 68% and average porosity of 34%. A gas-water contact has been observed in the well at approximately 895 metres as evidenced by wireline log and formation pressure data, the company stated. “In addition to encountering a potentially highly productive net gas bearing interval of 16 metres, the DRC-1 well result indicates substantial additional gas exploration potential to exist in an adjacent and up dip fault block and this will be targeted in drilling during 2015,” the company added. The DRC-1 well is the second well to be drilled based on the interpretation of 3D seismic survey data shot by Gulfsands on the Rharb Centre Permit in 2013.




Norway: ConocoPhillips first oil production from the Eldfisk II project Source: ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips has announced first oil production from the Eldfisk II project in the Norwegian

North Sea. 'Eldfisk II joins Ekofisk South as the second major project startup in Norway since late

2013,' said Matt Fox, executive vice president, Exploration and Production. 'These projects will

increase ultimate resource recovery and extend the field life of this premier legacy asset for years

to come.'

Eldfisk II, along with Ekofisk South and other projects offshore Norway, will add approx. 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to the company's production volumes by 2017. The Eldfisk II project includes plans to drill 40 new production and water injection wells. One of four pre-drilled wells is currently online, with the remaining three anticipated to come on stream this month. Production from the field will ramp up over the next three years as additional wells are brought online.

The Greater Ekofisk Area, located approx. 200 miles (300 km) offshore Stavanger, is comprised of four producing fields: Ekofisk, Eldfisk, Embla and Tor. Crude oil from Greater Ekofisk's producing fields is exported via pipeline to Teesside, England, and natural gas flows via pipeline to Emden, Germany.

ConocoPhillips (35.1%) operates the Greater Ekofisk Area. The other Ekofisk co-venturers areTotal (39.9%), Eni (12.4%), Statoil (7.6%) and Petoro (5.0%).




Congo:Eni Production begins from Nené Marine field Source Eni + NewBase

Italian oil company Eni has started production from Nené Marine field, offshore Congo. The field is located in Marine XII Block, approximately 17 km from the coast. The Nené Marine field, located at a water depth of 28 meters and close to existing plants, produces from Djeno pre-salt formation 2.5 km below the ground level.

The complete development of the field will take place in several stages and will include the installation of production platforms and the drilling of over 30 wells, with a plateau of over 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).

The production of the first phase is 7,500 boe/d. It is collected from a platform installed on the purpose and is subsequently sent for treatment on the Zatchi production platform, operated by Eni, via a subsea pipeline with a length of 17 km.

During the production test Nené Marine 3 well delivered in excess of 5,000 barrels of oil per day with a density of 36° API.

In recent years Eni has discovered approximately 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent of resources in the Congolese Marine XII Block, of which 1.5 billion are attributable to Nené Marine field, which offers new developments currently under further delineation activities.

The last discovery of Eni in Congo was made just over a month ago through the Minsala Marine 1 exploration well, which spontaneously provided over 5,000 barrels of light oil with a density of 41° API.

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi commented: “The startup of Nené Marine field achieved just eight months after obtaining the production permit is a great result for Eni, and confirms our strategy of rapid exploitation of exploration resources, thanks to the technical and planning capabilities of the company and the integration of exploration, operational and development efficiency”.

Eni, through its own subsidiary Eni Congo SA, is operator of Marine XII with a 65% share stake. The other partners are New Age (25%) and Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (10%). Eni has been operating in Congo since 1968 and currently produces approximately 110,000 barrels of oil per day of equity production.




US: Chevron oil discovery in deepwater Gulf of Mexico Source: Chevron + NewBase

Chevron has announced a significant oil discovery at the Anchor prospect in the deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Anchor is Chevron's second discovery in the deepwater Gulf in less than a year.

'The Anchor discovery, along with the previously announced Guadalupe discovery, are significant finds for us in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. We had one of our best years with the drill bit in 2014, reporting more than 30 discoveries worldwide and adding an estimated one billion barrels of new resources to our holdings,' said Jay Johnson, senior vice president, Upstream, Chevron Corporation. The Green Canyon Block 807 Well No. 2 encountered oil pay in multiple Lower Tertiary Wilcox Sands. The well, which was spudded in August 2014, is located approx. 140 miles (225 km) off the coast of Louisiana in 5,183 feet (1,580 m) of water and was drilled to a depth of 33,749 feet (10,287 m). Appraisal drilling will begin in 2015.

'Chevron's leading position in the Gulf, where we are expecting further growth in the near-term from recent project startups at Jack/St. Malo and Tubular Bells, is further underpinned by this discovery,' said Jeff Shellebarger, president, Chevron North America Exploration and Production Company. 'We currently have five deepwater drillships operating in the Gulf, two of which are focused on exploration activities.'

Chevron subsidiary Chevron U.S.A. Inc. is the operator, with a 55 percent working interest in the Anchor prospect. Anchor co-owners are Cobalt International Energy (20 percent), Samson Offshore Anchor (12.5 percent); and Venari Resources (12.5 percent).







Natural gas share may hit 26% in next 20 years, says GECF chief

The share of the gas in the next 20 years will increase from around 22% to 25% or 26% as the demand is rising due to economic growth and also due to the shift in the energy mix to coal from

oil and coal, says Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) secretary general Dr Seyed Mohamed Hossein Adeli. “We are more concerned about where the supply will come from,” he said in a special interview featured by Gulf Intelligence. Asked whether lots of gas coming on stream – from Argentina, East Africa, Australia and China will result in a glut in the next five years, Adeli said, “The areas, which you refer to like Australia and East Africa, projects are in fact not being completed on time. And there is also strong gas demand support due to policy changes in Japan. After Fukushima, plans for bringing nuclear power on board

again this year and next has been postponed. Demand for gas from India is also rising, as well as from Europe, so even if some customers reduce demand, there are new ones emerging all the time.” The interview was done by CNN anchor, John Defterios. On the sustainability of the US shale revolution, Adeli said, “US shale gas production will continue to grow and start to export by around 2016, but exports will be minimal and won’t impact the global market in the first few years. “Having said that, production of dry gas will diminish and not be sustainable if the Henry Hub price remains at current levels of $3.4 per mn BTU, compared to last year where it touched $7.4 per mn BTU. I think that in the next 12 months, we will witness some sort of hiking of Henry Hub prices in order to sustain production.” Asked whether he was confident about a stable market, Adeli said, “According to a GECF forecast, China will not be able to be a player in shale gas before 2030. First of all, they already have access to Russia and access also to LNG. Secondly, they are having problems in replicating American technology. Other limitations are that the reservoirs of shale gas in China are located where extraction is very difficult and lacking water, so any extraction is going to be minimal and won’t meet internal demand.” Adeli believes Russia will like to keep itself as a reliable supplier to Europe. “Russia will continue to be a reliable supplier and it will address the financial problems with the EU (European Union) one way or the other. Europe needs Russian gas and Russia needs European market. Russians will do whatever it takes to show they are a reliable supplier.” On investment into Iran’s oil and gas sector in view of the current supply disruptions in the region, such as the current conflict with ISIS, the GECF secretary general said, “At this juncture, the world needs Iranian gas. The world needs more gas and more energy, so if contract negotiations are successful, I think it will happen and then Iran will be a game changer.”




‘Clean gas should have premium on price’ GECF secretary general Dr Seyed Mohamed Hossein Adeli has spoken about the need for a “premium on gas” because of its clean nature and said all of the producers are in favour of that. On the oil-indexed gas price, he said, “Yes – all of our countries more or less agree with this,” he said in an interview featured by Gulf Intelligence.

“There is also a need for a premium on gas because of its clean nature and this is why all of the producers are in favour of that. But this does not mean that they’re not following the market pragmatically; what’s happening now is that of course the price has been fluctuating, but not to the extent that prices would deter sustainable investment and supply,” he said.

Regarding the talk in Asia about a buyer’s cartel to come together in order to try and reduce the premium that the Asian buyers pay for LNG, Adeli said it is too soon to comment. On the impact of creating a buyer’s cartel to get better leverage on gas pricing (on Qatar and other producers), Adeli said, “There are two things that differentiate gas from oil. One is, its very nature vis-à-vis oil, and the second is that our statute at GECF has no intention of setting prices, quotas or production ceilings.

“But Qatar is another producing country. They are in a good position actually because they have demand from the East and recently from the West. Qatar also has the policy of moratorium; they have stopped increasing production and as far as I know, this is going to be their policy up to 2018. If they continue this policy of a ceiling on production, then with the increasing of demand, prices will hold.”

In view of the expected drop in long-term gas demand from Western Europe, along with diversification, energy saving initiatives there etc, will the momentum now increase as a result of nervousness about long-term supplies from Russia?

On Europe, Adeli said “there are a couple of things”. Firstly, Europe’s economy is not picking up and was hit by the financial crisis, so the demand for gas and energy has slowed. On the other hand, because of cheap coal coming from the US, the demand for gas has also slowed down with the energy mix in Europe now having less gas and more coal.

”Wasn’t it a bit concerning from an environmental standpoint?”, Adeli said, “Yes because the Europeans have the highest commitment to environmental concerns and given the fact that there are negotiations now on the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol, in 2015 you’re going to have a meeting to finalise all of these ceilings on greenhouse gas emissions. So from that point of view, there are problems. “And I think that Europeans have not yet come to their own decision what they want to do with the energy policy and their energy mix. This is a big question mark for Europe. On the other hand, there is this partnership with Russia.




Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Energy had larger price declines than most nonenergy commodities in 2014 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Bloomberg The first eight months of 2014 were much like 2013, as energy commodities remained in a relatively stable price range. During the last four months of 2014, however, crude oil and petroleum product prices fell dramatically, and ended the year with the largest price drops of all major commodities in the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI). Prices for nickel, zinc, and aluminum were among the few commodities that increased in 2014, while the prices of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, grains, and other metals declined.

Note: These commodities are included in the S&P GSCI Energy, Grains, Industrial Metals, and Precious Metals indices. All price changes reflect changes in front month futures contract price for each commodity. WTI is West Texas Intermediate, RBOB is reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending. In 2014, the energy component of the GSCI fell 43% from the start of the year. The S&P GSCI precious metals, industrial metals, and grains indices declined only 6%, 8%, and 8%, respectively, over the same period. Price movements in major commodity groups often move together when there are strong underlying trends in global economic growth. At times, however, commodity prices can deviate from one another as supply-side factors unique to a particular commodity or group of commodities arise. Energy. Two benchmark crude oils, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, make up about 67% of the weighting in the S&P GSCI energy index. Petroleum-based products (gasoline, heating oil, and gasoil) together comprise another 29% of the S&P GSCI energy index, and because prices for these products generally follow crude oil prices, the index tends to follow the major price movements in the crude oil market. At the end of June, with elevated risk for supply disruptions in Iraq, the S&P GSCI energy index rose to its highest point of the year, reaching 10% above starting levels. In the second half of the




year, higher, sustained increases in crude oil supply and lower expected global economic growth in 2014 and 2015 contributed to a rapid decline in crude oil prices, causing the prolonged decline in the index. Natural gas accounts for the remaining 4% of the S&P GSCI energy index, and its price decline of 33% was the lowest price decline among energy commodities in the GSCI. Natural gas prices in February rose to levels not seen since 2008 as the United States experienced a very cold winter. Natural gas storage levels declined until the spring, which helped support prices through much of the first half of the year. Increased natural gas production in the spring and summer led to record injections, bringing storage levels closer to the five-year range and pushing prices lower.

Grains. The S&P GSCI grains index, a subindex of the larger S&P GSCI agriculture index, includes corn, wheat, and soybeans, with corn accounting for just over 40% of the weighting. The S&P GSCI grains index reached a high point in late spring as worries grew over lower crop yield and damage from the 2013-14 winter. However, as the planting and harvesting periods concluded, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated that 2014 corn and soybean production would reach record levels. Increased supply of these grains added significant downward pressure on prices and, by late September, resulted in the S&P GSCI index falling as much as 22% below its level at the beginning of 2014. Metals. Copper and aluminum comprise almost 80% of the S&P GSCI industrial metals index, with lead, nickel, and zinc making up the remainder. Reduced aluminum production and steady inventory declines as tracked by the London Metal Exchange resulted in increased aluminum prices. Similarly, zinc prices reached a three-year high in July as inventories fell to the lowest level since the end of 2010. Nickel prices increased in early 2014 on news of an export ban enacted by Indonesia, a major supplier. On the other hand, copper prices ended the year down mainly in reaction to slower economic growth in China. The S&P GSCI precious metals index is composed of two metals: gold (86%) and silver (14%). A stronger U.S. dollar and reduced physical demand for gold due to weak economic growth in emerging markets lowered gold prices during the second half of 2014.




Oil prices sink to new 66-month low of below $52 Reuters + NEwBase

Oil prices sank to fresh 5-1/2-year lows on Tuesday, extending losses after a 5 percent plunge in the previous session as worries over a global supply glut intensified. Brent crude fell by 3 percent to below $52 a barrel as cuts to monthly oil selling prices for European buyers by top OPEC

producer Saudi Arabia heightened worries about oversupply.

"Saudi Arabia is showing no signs of pulling back," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst with SEB in Oslo. "Stocks are continuing to build, and there is an increase in contango." While Saudi Arabia increased its selling price to Asia, some analysts said the cuts to Europe reflect the

kingdom's deepening defence of market share.

This added to bearish data over the weekend showing that Russia's 2014 oil output hit a post-Soviet-era high and exports from Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, reached their highest since 1980.

On Tuesday, the UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) set the December retroactive selling price for its benchmark Murban crude at $60.65 a barrel, its lowest level since May 2009. "It's hard to pinpoint a specific downward pressure," Schieldrop said.

Brent crude fell as low as $51.23 a barrel on Tuesday, its lowest level since May 2009. It was trading at $51.31 at 0942 GMT, down $1.80. US crude was at $48.54, down $1.50, after falling to $48.47, its lowest since April 2009.

Jitters over political uncertainty in Greece added to an already faltering eurozone economy, raising questions about energy demand in Europe and compounding the bearish sentiment. A slew of factors was keeping up the downward pressure on prices, analysts said, pointing to concerns about the Greek economy, high oil output from Russia, Iraq and the United States, and a stronger dollar.

"The weak euro should be one of the reasons," said Tamas Varga of PVM, adding: "When the Saudis are cutting prices, the markets are not going to go higher." A rise in the dollar index for a sixth straight month in December has made dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, depressing prices.

US commercial crude oil and products stockpiles were also forecast to have risen in the week ending Jan. 2, a preliminary Reuters survey showed on Monday, which could weigh further on prices.




Some economists expect cheaper oil to boost consumers' purchasing power and buoy the global economy, but the more-than-50-percent plunge in oil prices since June has also raised deflationary fears.

"This is great news for motorists, but it presents a headache for policy makers, with the Fed keen to get their policy settings back to something more normal, and Europe keen to avoid a deflationary spiral," ANZ analysts said in a note.

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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA ASME member since 1995 Emarat member since 1990

Mobile : +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 07 January 2015 K. Al Awadi







Economy & Finance

New base 513 special 07 january 2014