New base 554 special 05 march 2015

Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

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NewBase 05 March 2015 - Issue No. 554 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

ADNOC signs MoU with Korea's KNOC, KIGAM for cooperation

on oil field development

(WAM + NewBase) The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) on Wednesday signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) and Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM). The MoU provides for cooperation in research and development activities for oil fields development in UAE.

The agreement was signed by Abdulla Nasser Al Suwaidi, ADNOC’s Director General, Moon Kyu Seo, KNOC’s President and CEO and Kyu Han Kim, KIGAM President in the presence of a number of senior officials from all parties.

By entering into the MoU, ADNOC, KNOC and KIGAM have expressed their intentions to promote joint research and technological cooperation related to oil concessions in UAE. The scope of cooperation will include petroleum geology/geophysics/basin/geo-chemical analysis; reservoir characterization by using field data; well stimulation and enhanced oil recovery considering the reservoir characteristics. ADNOC, KNOC and KIGAM also have plans for exchange of experts, regular technical seminars and workshops, aiming at promoting R&D cooperation.




Abdulla Nasser Al Suwaidi, ADNOC Director General, said "initiatives such as the recent signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between ADNOC, KNOC and KIGAM reinforce ADNOC’s commitment to grow its oil and gas portfolio capacity and demonstrate that ADNOC

have a road map to achieve this objective through research and development (R&D.)" "ADNOC fully believes in the importance of scientific research and modern technology in enhancing oil recovery, for that end we are seeking to build constructive partnerships with the major international companies to provide a solid research and development that contribute to our efforts aiming at increasing ADNOC’s oil and gas portfolio capacity", he added.

On his part Kyu Han Kim, President of KIGAM, said, "Through the MoU, KIGAM is going to expand joint research collaborations with UAE, the oil-producing country with advanced technologies". He also added that as a leading organization responsible for R&D program, KIGAM is committed to do its best to make sure that joint research and exchange of experts will go as smoothly as planned.

Moon Kyu Seo, President and CEO of KNOC, said that "We highly anticipate this MoU will be able to give a momentum for ADNOC, KNOC and KIGAM to implement field oriented R&D programs in our concessions. And I hope this cooperation in R&D will contribute to benefits in technology and economics of Haliba’s appraisal and development." It is expected that this partnership between UAE and Korea will be helpful not only to strengthen the R&D capabilities of all the parties(ADNOC, KIGAM, and KNOC), but also to bring higher productivity to the oil field business, currently operated by Al Dhafra.

Korea Abu Dhabi Oil Corporation (KADOC), the Korean Consortium which joins KNOC and GS Energy is currently engaging in development activities in three oil concessions. Al Dhafra Petroleum Operations Company, a product of a Joint Venture and Field Entry Agreement that was signed in 2012 between ADNOC and KADOC, is now engaging in overall activities in the three oil concessions.




Qatar oil production drops to 674,000 bpd in January 2015 Gulf Times + NewBase

Weaker global demand has seen Qatar’s oil production falling to about 674,000 bpd in January, new data shows. But, according to QNB, “redevelopment plans” should “stabilise” output going forward.

Qatar Petroleum (QP) is implementing a redevelopment programme to “steady production” at its oil fields. This “heavy investment” in maturing oil fields should “limit further declines” in oil production, QNB said in its ‘Monthly monitor’. Qatar oil prices fell in January owing to weaker global demand, it said.

The stagnant eurozone economy, recession in Japan and slowdown in emerging markets, especially China, are contributing to the weakness in hydrocarbon demand and an oil supply glut, which is putting downward pressure on international oil prices.

Earlier in its ‘Qatar Economic Insight 2015’ QNB said the Barzan project is expected to drive growth in the hydrocarbon sector, which may grow by 0.8% in 2015, 1.8% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017 despite declining oil production due to maturing oil fields.

Lower hydrocarbon revenue and rising capital spending are expected to tip the fiscal balance into deficits of 2.2% of GDP in 2015, 3.4% in 2016 and 3.7% in 2017. Hydrocarbon revenue is expected to decline with lower oil prices and crude oil production, but this will be partly offset by higher non-hydrocarbon revenue, supported by better corporate tax collection. The ‘Monthly monitor’ said Qatar’s international reserves fell slightly to $41.1bn at end-January 2015. This compares to $41.9bn at end-January 2014. Despite the slight fall, the import cover remains more than adequate at 7.5 months of prospective imports at end-January 2015, well above the IMF-recommended level of three months for pegged exchange rates. More broadly, Qatar’s international reserves have been steadily rising over the years on large

current account surpluses. Going forward, QNB expects international reserves to remain broadly stable at eight months of prospective import cover over the medium term, notwithstanding the lower trade surplus. Qatar’s foreign merchandise trade balance registered a surplus of QR18.5bn in January 2015, down from QR35.8bn in January 2014. This, QNB said, was mainly a result of lower

international crude oil prices. Total exports fell by 36.7% year-on-year. At the same time, QNB said, imports rose robustly (10.2% year-on-year), reflecting the growing population and large investment spending




Indian State of Gujarat to Get Two New LNG Terminals Press trust of India + NewBase

Government of Indian state of Gujarat plans to set up two more LNG terminals of 10 Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum (MMTPA) combined capacity in the near future.

According to Press trust of India, this information was provided in the state assembly on Tuesday by state’s Chief Minister Anandiben Patel who handles the ports portfolio.

Currently there are two LNG terminals in operation in the state, one at Hazira in Surat and the another at Dahej in Bharuch district. Both these terminals have a combined capacity to handle 17.5 MMT LNG per annum.

The two new terminals being planned are expected to come up at Jafrabad in Amreli district and at Mundra port in Kutch district, Patel said in a written reply . Patel said that an LNG port terminal with Floating Storage and Re-gassification Unit (FSRU) with a capacity of 5 MMTPA would be built in Jafrabad, Press Trust reported.

According to Press Trust, for the Jafrabad project, Gujarat Maritime Board (GMB) had selected Swan Energy Ltd as the developer on a Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT) basis.

For the Mundra project Adani Group and the state government-owned Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) have joined hands to set up an LNG import terminal at Mundra with an initial capacity of 5 MMTPA.




Asian Spot LNG Price Could See Short Term Relief, Says Wood Mackenzie

Decline in Asian LNG spot prices will find temporary relief in the summer with demand growth in the Pacific outpacing that of global LNG supply, Wood Mackenzie said in its new quarterly analysis of global LNG fundamentals.

However the energy consultant added that as new Australian LNG supply ramps up towards the end of the year, prices will come under further downward pressure, converging back to European spot prices.

"For the first time since 2009, Asian LNG spot prices are trading at a discount to European spot prices, like the NBP. Benign weather conditions in North East Asia and ample supply availability, combined with low oil prices continues to put pressure on Asian LNG prices. In contrast, high seasonal demand and the cap imposed on Groningen production for the first half of 2015 are resulting in European spot prices trading relatively high and close to oil indexed contract prices, despite abundant LNG imports,” Massimo Di-Odoardo, Principal European gas analyst for Wood Mackenzie said.

However, Di-Odoardo warns that a typical summer price decline is not assured, that instead Asian LNG and European spot price levels will be sustained through this summer. And, further, that rising winter prices are also not assured, and that instead prices in Q4 will fall, despite the beginning of the winter season.

Yingying Zhou, Asia LNG research analyst for Wood Mackenzie summarises the outlook for Asian demand: "The restart of some nuclear capacity in Japan and the commissioning of new nuclear and coal capacity in South Korea will result in lower demand in 2015. However under normal weather conditions we expect more LNG demand in China, while the ramp up of new contracts and more regasification capacity will facilitate new demand in South East Asia, India and the Middle East. Overall, we expect Asia Pacific LNG demand to be some 6 million tonnes higher in 2015 compared to last year, despite Q1 being lower."

The prognosis for Asia in the summer is that spot prices should rise, Through Q2 and Q3 Wood Mackenzie forecasts year-on-year demand growth to outpace that of LNG supply, helped by reduced LNG supply from West Africa, North Africa and SE Asia. However, spot prices will be capped by fuel oil equivalent levels, peaking around $8.5 per million British Thermal Unit ($/mmbtu), it stated.




Angola: VAALCO Energy spuds its first well on Block 5 offshore Source: VAALCO Energy + NewBase

VAALCO Energy on March 2, 2015, spudded the post-salt Kindele-1 well, its first exploration well

on Block 5 offshore Angola. As previously announced, VAALCO contracted the Transocean

'Celtic Sea' semi-submersible rig to drill

the Kindele-1 well to a planned total depth

of 2,250 meters in a water depth of

approx. 100 meters.

Steve Guidry, Chairman and CEO, commented, 'We are very pleased to announce this major step forward for our operations offshore Angola. After nearly nine years of continued commitment to our Block 5 license, we are embarking on an important phase in our efforts to explore for hydrocarbons from a second West African country. We continue to believe that Block 5 is within an area

with potential in both post- and pre-salt formations including the syn-rift and sag play.'

As previously announced in October 2014, VAALCO, together with its working interest partner, Sonangol P&P, entered into the Subsequent Exploration Phase ('SEP') on Block 5. Under the SEP, VAALCO and Sonangol P&P have committed to drill a total of four exploration wells during the exploration extension period, which expires in November 2017. The four-well obligation includes the original two-well commitment under the primary exploration period that carries over to the SEP period.

The Kindele-1 well will test a fault block adjacent to the Mubafo discovery which tested oil from the Mucanzo sand section within the Pinda group formations. The Kindele-1 will be drilled to a depth of 1,800 meters to evaluate the Mucanzo sand section. The well will then be deepened to the salt to an estimated depth of 2,250 meters for geologic and

geophysical correlation. The well is expected to take approx. six weeks to drill to total depth.

Additionally, the Company is nearing finalization of the seismic processing in the outboard portion of Block 5. The seismic processing is being performed to image pre-salt structures as potential targets for future exploration wells on Block 5.




Exxon Mobil reduces 2015 capex by 12%

U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil today said it expects its capital expenditure for 2015 will be $34 billion in 2015 – 12 percent less than in 2014. The company further said that annual capital and exploration expenditures are expected to average less than $34 billion in 2016 and 2017.

“We are capturing savings in raw materials, service, and construction costs,” Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer said. “The lower capital outlook also reflects actions we are taking to improve our set of opportunities while enhancing specific terms and conditions and optimizing development plans.”

He said that Exxon Mobil Corporation expects to start up 16 major oil and natural gas projects during the next three years and is on track to increase daily production to 4.3 million oil-equivalent barrels by 2017.

“Our long-term capital allocation approach has not changed,” Tillerson said at the company’s annual analyst meeting at the New York Stock Exchange. “We remain committed to our investment discipline and maintaining a reliable and growing dividend. Our integrated model along with our unmatched financial flexibility enable us to execute our business strategy and create shareholder value through the commodity price cycle.”

“The lower capital outlook also reflects actions we are taking to improve our set of opportunities while enhancing specific terms and conditions and optimizing development plans.”

In 2015, ExxonMobil expects to increase production volumes 2 percent to 4.1 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, driven by 7 percent liquids growth. The volume increase is supported by the ramp up of several projects completed in 2014 and the expected startup of seven new major developments in 2015, including Hadrian South in the Gulf of Mexico, expansion of the Kearl project in Canada, Banyu Urip in Indonesia and deepwater expansion projects at Erha in Nigeria and Kizomba in Angola.

In 2016 and 2017, production ramp up is expected from several projects including Gorgon Jansz in Australia, Hebron in Eastern Canada and expansions of Upper Zakum in United Arab Emirates and Odoptu in Far East Russia.

“ExxonMobil has a deep and diverse portfolio of opportunities around the world and a total resource base of more than 92 billion oil-equivalent barrels,” Tillerson said. “We have unparalleled flexibility to select and invest in only the most attractive development projects.”

ExxonMobil anticipates capital spending of about $34 billion in 2015 – 12 percent less than in 2014 – as it continues to bring major projects online. Annual capital and exploration expenditures are expected to average less than $34 billion in 2016 and 2017.

“ExxonMobil’s Downstream and Chemical businesses remain resilient in the lower commodity price environment and continue to generate solid cash flow, helped by abundant North American crude and natural gas supplies that have led to lower feedstock and energy costs,” Tillerson said.

“Approximately 75 percent of ExxonMobil’s refining operations are integrated with chemical and lubricant manufacturing, resulting in economies of scale and greater flexibility to produce higher-value products, including diesel, jet fuel, lubes, and chemicals based on market conditions,” Tillerson said.




US:Oil production in federal Gulf of Mexico increasing Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Because of the long timelines associated with Gulf of Mexico (GOM) projects, the recent downturn in oil prices is expected to have minimal direct impact on GOM crude oil production through 2016. EIA projects GOM production to reach 1.52 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2015 and 1.61 million bbl/d in 2016, or about 16% and 17% of total U.S. crude oil production in those two years, respectively.

The forecasted production growth is driven both by new projects and the redevelopment and expansion of older producing fields. Five deepwater projects began in the last three months of 2014: Stone Energy-operated Cardamom Deep and Cardona projects, Chevron-operated Jack/St. Malo fields, Murphy Oil-operated Dalmatian, and Hess-operated Tubular Bells. Also occurring at the end of 2014 was the redevelopment of Mars (Mars B) and Na Kika (Na Kika Phase 3), both of which are mature fields. Cardamom Deep, Jack/St. Malo, and Tubular Bells were slated for a late 2014 start-up, as well. Although industry press releases have indicated they have started producing, their production data have not yet been reported to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) under the U.S. Department of the Interior. The relatively high number of fields that came online in 2014 and are scheduled for 2015 and 2016 production start-ups reflects the revival of interest and activity in the GOM following the moratorium on deepwater drilling after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon incident. While the moratorium officially lasted from April 30 to October 12, 2010, there were relatively few field start-ups in 2011 through 2013.




Thirteen fields are expected to start up in the next two years, eight in 2015 and five in 2016. Development of offshore fields requires both surface and subsea production equipment. The high cost of surface structures limits their application to large fields.

Those fields with reserves not large enough to justify the necessary capital expenditure use subsea infrastructure to connect to nearby existing platforms. This approach, known as a subsea tieback, can reduce project costs and start-up times. More than half of the projects starting up in 2015 and 2016 will be subsea tiebacks to existing production platforms. These new projects, combined with continuing production from the developments brought online in late 2014, are forecast to add 265,000 bbl/d by the end of 2015. The production estimates for 2015 and 2016 (see first graph) include adjustments to account for seasonal shut-ins from hurricanes.

The current low oil price adds uncertainty to the timelines of deepwater GOM projects, with projects in early development stages exposed to the greatest risk of delay. In an effort to reduce this risk, producers are collaborating to develop projects more cost-effectively, to shorten the time to final investment decision and first production, and by sharing development costs. For instance, Chevron, BP, and ConocoPhillips recently announced a collaborative effort to explore and appraise 24 jointly held offshore leases in the northwest portion of the

Gulf of Mexico's Keathley Canyon.




Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Oil Price holds above $60 Reuters + NewBase Brent crude was holding above the U$D 60 till now,

Brent has traded around $60 since mid-February, rebounding from a six-year low of about $45 hit in January. The April contract inched down 3 cents to $60.52 a barrel by 0326 GMT while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged up 22 cents to $51.75 a barrel. A 2 percent gain in the previous session narrowed WTI's spread with global benchmark Brent <CL-LCO1=R> to less than $9 a barrel. "We've got a technically more constructive picture now," Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney said, pointing to the end of seven straight months of oil price falls. "That could be contributing to the surprisingly bullish reaction to the overnight news," he said. Government data showed commercial crude stockpiles in the United States hit a record high, rising 10.3 million barrels last week, which was twice as much as expected, but that failed to push prices down. Saudi Arabia's oil minister voiced cautious optimism about the market outlook on Wednesday, saying he expected oil prices to stabilise. A deteriorating security situation led Libya's state oil company to declare force majeure on 11 of its oilfields on Wednesday. "It's not a huge difference but supportive of the market overall," McCarthy said. Output from the Opec producer was at more than 400,000 barrels per day on March 1.




5 Big Geopolitical Risks for 2015

Aon Political Risk Map 2015 The map shows levels of geopolitical risk in developing nations. Yellow indicates medium risk, orange high, and red very high risk. Developed nations are not rated.

Aon Risk Solutions, a unit of Aon Plc, today issued its annual Political Risk Map, intended to provide the British insurer's clients with answers to common questions about where it’s getting safer, and more dangerous, to do business.

There isn't a lot of good news. Just seven of 163 developing countries reduced their political risk since last year, and most of those, like Zimbabwe and Laos, still have plenty of room for improvement. Twelve countries face greater strain this year, including Libya, Haiti, and Pakistan.

“The last 12 months have just been catastrophic country-risk-wise,” said Curtis Ingram, vice president of the political-risk practice. It’s almost like “a vacuum has opened up and a lot of bad actors have moved in,” in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, Nigeria, Iraq, and elsewhere.

Aon and research partner Roubini Global Economics, founded by the economist Nouriel Roubini, evaluate each nation across nine categories of risk, such as foreign currency exchange and capital conditions, law and regulation, and political interference and violence. The report considers only developing nations; members of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) together form the baseline for the research and are therefore excluded.

Here are five of the things the report says we should keep an eye on in the months ahead.




Russia

Low oil prices and international sanctions stemming from the Ukraine conflict have taken their toll on the Russian economy. The murder last week of Boris Nemtsov, an opposition leader and Yeltsin-era deputy prime minister — not mentioned in the report but a dark omen — has exacerbated internal political tensions.

Russia’s instability will “continue to cast a shadow over the region,” according to the political risk report, which projects consequent hardships for trading partners Belarus and Kazakhstan. Researchers see “a possible frozen conflict and continued sanctions” in Ukraine, unlikely to be resolved in the months ahead.

Oil and other commodities

Russia, Venezuela and Iran have drawn much of the attention, and punishment, from the oil glut. It’s also a problem for smaller powers, such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, whose fragile foreign currency exchange and capital policies leave them vulnerable to trade shocks. Mining- and energy-heavy nations in Africa — Angola, Cameroon, Congo, and Nigeria — all face weaker incomes and likely spending cuts.

Conflict and violence

The horrors of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and Boko Haram in Nigeria, are top threats to regional stability. Porous borders and immature civic institutions in parts of the Middle East and Africa make nations there particularly sensitive to violence.

Interest rates

Even modest interest-rate increases by the Fed will intensify the global competition for capital and make it costlier to service external debt.

The Middle East and North Africa

Countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco should see a boost from the oil price drop, the report's authors suggest. Yet all three countries, rated either high or very high risks, face countervailing security risks from what the report calls power vacuums in Iraq, Libya and Syria.

There's also everywhere else. Private insurers have offered political risk coverage for several decades, to help companies take some of the edge off doing business in new and emerging markets. But, like most of us, the problems of these places like to travel. Turkey and Mexico, for example, may be particularly politically or economically vulnerable to tumult in the Middle East and Latin America. But as OECD members, they pose risks that aren’t addressed in the report.




Oil slump impact ‘limited’ on Qatar financial sector, says central bank Gulf Times + NewBase

The fall in oil prices has had “limited impact” on Qatar’s financial sector, said HE the Qatar Central Bank Governor, Sheikh Abdullah bin Saoud al-Thani. Total assets of the banking system continued to grow robustly at around 5% in the second half of 2014. The growth has been driven by credit to the private sector and rise in Islamic finance.

At end-December 2014, the banking system remains well-capitalised and profitable. In fact, credit quality has improved, with Tier I capital ratio well above the regulatory minimum required under the Basel III framework and the NPL ratio falling, while remaining below 2%.

Profitability levels also remain high, with return on assets in excess of 2%, which reflects an improvement during the second half of the year. “Thus, the banking sector continues to be resilient and robust despite the fall in global oil prices and associated uncertainties, reflecting strong macroeconomic performance and sound policies,” he told the Meed.

Although, the performance of the oil companies could have direct impact on the financial sector, as lower have some revenue may reflect on the extent of leveraging, oil companies have generated large surpluses in recent years and their dependence on bank borrowings have been low.

Therefore, it is expected that the impact on the assets of the banks will be minimal. Nevertheless, if the low oil prices are sustained in the long-run, the financial sector could be affected by low deposit growth and tighter liquidity. On the other hand, credit growth in the financial sector is now supported by a growing non-hydrocarbon sector which could well offset the adverse impact expected from the hydrocarbon sector. In fact, significant progress has been made under the Strategic Plan for the financial sector to develop a diversified and more resilient economy, which will have lesser reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. “Finally, our preparations for the World Cup 2022 and other large infrastructure projects are expected to sustain the strong growth of the economy which would, in turn, support the health of the financial sector,” Sheikh Abdullah said.




Asked how the market sustained so many projects without overheating, he said, “Qatar has maintained strong GDP growth at about 6% over the past two years, driven by double digit growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector, reflecting the ongoing diversification strategy. The large public investment spending to diversify the economy and prepare for the FIFA World Cup 2022, in turn, has resulted in significant inflow of expatriate population. While this has added to aggregate demand and thereby has supported growth, it has also boosted housing demand and thereby rental prices. However, moderation in domestic prices of food amid falling global commodity prices and some services (medical care and entertainment and recreation) has helped in containing overall inflation to 2.7% in December 2014. In addition, the budget continues to post surpluses despite the sharp fall in oil prices and growth is expected to accelerate in 2015, reflecting solid expansion in non-hydrocarbon activities propelled by investment spending, expansionary fiscal stance and population growth. QCB, he said, on its part is actively managing systemic liquidity through auctions of T-bills/bonds to ensure that monetary and liquidity conditions remain consistent with growth and price stability. “At the same time, QCB is closely monitoring emerging risks to the financial system, in particular with respect to inflation and real estate sector risks, and implementing macro-prudential measures to ensure financial stability. Mindful of the risks associated with the public investment programme, including related financial sector vulnerabilities, the Ministry of Finance has taken steps to prioritise public investment while raising its efficiency. Additional land is being provided to priority sectors such as housing, logistics, and warehousing to address supply bottlenecks. “All these steps are expected to sustain growth while maintaining price and financial stability,” the QCB Governor said.




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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile : +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 05 March 2015 K. Al Awadi







Economy & Finance

New base 554 special 05 march 2015