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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 17 May 2015 - Issue No. 605 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: International Renewable Energy Agency HQ in Masdar City named Green Commercial Building of the Year (WAM + NewBase ) -- The recently completed International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) headquarters, located in Masdar City, where Masdar is building the world’s most sustainable city, has been named the Green Commercial Building of the Year by the Emirates Green Building Council (EGBC). The EGBC recognised IRENA building architect and lead consultant Woods Bagot and design and build contractor Brookfield Multiplex at an awards ceremony dinner at the Murooj Rotana Hotel in Dubai. The award recognises a building in the Middle East-North Africa region whose construction and completion has surpassed the highest sustainability standards and includes innovation in design and processes. Owned and developed by Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy company, the IRENA building is the first in the UAE to receive the four-pearl rating for design and construction from Estidama, the

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Page 1: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 17 May 2015 - Issue No. 605 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE: International Renewable Energy Agency HQ in Masdar City

named Green Commercial Building of the Year

(WAM + NewBase ) -- The recently completed International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) headquarters, located in Masdar City, where Masdar is building the world’s most sustainable city, has been named the Green Commercial Building of the Year by the Emirates Green Building Council (EGBC).

The EGBC recognised IRENA building architect and lead consultant Woods Bagot and design and build contractor Brookfield Multiplex at an awards ceremony dinner at the Murooj Rotana Hotel in Dubai. The award recognises a building in the Middle East-North Africa region whose construction and completion has surpassed the highest sustainability standards and includes innovation in design and processes.

Owned and developed by Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy company, the IRENA building is the first in the UAE to receive the four-pearl rating for design and construction from Estidama, the

Page 2: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Abu Dhabi-certification system which measures and evaluates the energy, water and carbon efficiency of buildings.

Anthony Mallows, director of Masdar City, said, "Our commitment to establishing Masdar City as a leading hub for innovation and sustainability is generating great recognition with the new IRENA headquarters named as the ‘Green Building of the Year.’ "Achieving a four-pearl Estidama rating for the IRENA building, within a competitive, market-driven budget, demonstrates that innovative design and construction, combined with a thorough understanding of sustainable building requirements, can produce outstanding results."

Richard Fenne, project director at Woods Bagot, remarked: "This award recognises how a truly integrated design process – with all of the project

stakeholders engaged – has yielded an exemplary building, and one which sets a new standard for commercial Grade A office space in the UAE and across the wider region."

The focus of the design was to create a highly-sustainable four-pearl Estidama-rated commercial building which exemplifies the overall development of Masdar City as a living test bed for innovation and embodies the Estidama ‘four pillars of sustainability’ – social, environmental, economic and cultural.

The new IRENA building offers a total floor area of 32,000m2 and has approximately 1,000m2 of rooftop solar photovoltaic panels supplying electricity to the building. Due to passive design and smart energy management systems, the building demands over 40 per cent less energy than global energy-efficiency standards. It also demands approximately 50 per cent less water than commercial buildings in Abu Dhabi.

Masdar City is a pedestrian-friendly urban development and free zone that is establishing a ‘greenprint’ for how urban centres can accommodate dense populations while reducing energy, water and waste consumption.

IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future.

About Emirates Green Building Council : The Emirates Green Building Council (EmiratesGBC) was founded in June 2006, and became the 8th full member of the World Green Building Council in September 2006. EmiratesGBC is an organization that promotes and educates on green issues in the built environment and is the official body for the UAE endorsed by the World Green Building Council. EmiratesGBC currently has around 260 members in the UAE which represents thousands of individuals interested and involved in Green Building in the UAE and the region. In addition, EmiratesGBC members receive discounts on a number of programmes such as those related to conferences, seminars, training and green building events.

Page 3: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

UAE: Dubai gateway to thriving Mideast market Agencies + NewBase

Ibrahim Mohamed Aljanahi, Deputy CEO of Jafza, the UAE's flagship free zone entity, reiterated the strategic importance of Dubai as the hub to access and serve the thriving market of more than 2.5 billion consumers in the wider Middle East region, at the "Invest in Dubai" seminar organized by Falcon and Associates during "Dubai Week in China" in Beijing. He was speaking at the panel discussion "Why Dubai" within the seminar. Stressing on the role of Jebel Ali Free Zone (Jafza) as the logistics hub

for serving all key markets in the wider Middle East region, which spans from West Asia, the CIS, Africa and the Indian Subcontinent, Aljanahi said: "The evolution of Dubai as the gateway and a hub for such a huge market demonstrates the power of great vision and astute planning.

Dubai's visionary rulers thought ahead of time and developed world-class economic and transport infrastructure to evolve Dubai from a small trading center to an international business hub for the region. Jafza was created in 1985 and in the last thirty years, leveraging Dubai's outstanding multimodal facilities grew into one of the world's finest logistics hubs. The Free Zone attracted practically all big multinationals into the Free Zone who were interested in the wider Middle East's rapidly growing economies.

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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Thousands of world's top multinationals today have established their regional headquarters in Jafza and serve all key markets in the entire region efficiently." Aljanahi also talked about the recently developed Dubai Logistics Corridor which allows all Jafza-based companies to transfer their cargo from one mode to another in less than an hour, the fastest turn-around in the world.

Jafza is the only free zone in the world, which is located between the two largest trade enablers viz. Jebel Ali Port, the largest container terminal, and Al Maktoum International Airport, the biggest cargo and passenger airport, in the region. The Free Zone is also just 30-minutes' drive away from the Dubai International Airport. "Dubai is today considered one of the top aviation hubs in the world with Dubai International Airport ranked the busiest airport. More than 140 airlines serve Dubai and Al Maktoum International Airports providing the fastest air connection to reach any destination in the world at the shortest possible time. Jebel Ali Port, on the other hand, is today one of the top 10 container ports in the world and the largest in the region. More than 170 main shipping lines call the port providing efficient sea connections to all major trading corridors across the world," Aljanahi said.

Page 5: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Indonesia set to rejoin Opec after 7 years Reuters + NewBase

Indonesia's energy minister said yesterday that President Joko Widodo agreed to a plan for the country to rejoin Opec, seven years after Southeast Asia's biggest crude producer left the oil exporters group. "He fully agrees because we need to associate with the market," said the Energy and Mineral

Resources Minister Sudirman Said "We are one of the biggest buyers, so naturally we should establish relations with producers, not only exporters," he stated. Said revealed that Widodo also

approved his request to attend a two-day Opec meeting on June 3. Opec's statute

stipulates, however, that any "country with a substantial net export of crude petroleum, which has fundamentally similar interests to those of member

countries, may become a full member of the organisation, if accepted by a majority of three-fourths of full members, including the concurring votes of all founder members."-

Page 6: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

Pakistan, Turkmenistan to Discuss TAPI Project Express Tribune + NewBase

Pakistan and Turkmenistan will discuss issue related to TAPI gas pipeline project next week when, Pakistani newspaper Express Tribune reported earlier this week. The topic will come up during Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s visit Turkmenistan on May 20.

Last year, gas companies of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India established a company that will build, own and operate the planned 1,800-kilometer TAPI natural gas pipeline. The pipeline will export up to 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India over 30 years. The above four nations are currently in negotiations for the award of a multibillion-dollar contract to French energy giant Total as well as a Chinese and a Russian firm, Express Tribune reported. Pakistan wants work on the project to start as swiftly as possible as the country wants to augment gas supplies in the economy. The country has been facing severe shortage of natural gas which has affected power generation and other industrial activities. In 2012, Waheedullah Shahrani, Afghanistan’s Minister of Mines and Petroleum, visited Ashgabat to finalise the gas prices with Turkmenistan.The President of Turkmenistan assured him of a suitable price for the coming 30 years. Afghanistan will import 500 million cubic meters of gas annually. An agreement to this effect is expected to be signed in 2014.

Afghanistan’s import of 500 million cubic metres of gas will be increasedin the next decade to one billion cubic metres and in the third decade it would be increased to 1.5 billion cubic meters. The TAPI gas pipeline project worth $10 billion would create substantial job opportunities and help in the economic prosperity of the country. Afghanistan willget $400 million of revenue annually from the pipeline.

Page 7: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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US: Power generation from coal and natural gas expected to temporarily converge this spring .Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

EIA's most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that the amount of electricity generation fueled by natural gas in April and May will total just 3.5% less than the projected amount of coal-fired generation.

This convergence has occurred only once before, in April 2012, when natural gas fueled just 1.5% less generation than coal. Power generation from the two fuels is expected to rise at similar rates over the next couple months, and then diverge again later in the summer as demand rises and coal unit capacity utilization continues to rise. Natural gas-fired generation has been rising over the past few months, as the cost of natural gas has fallen to levelsnot seen since 2012. These low fuel costs have made natural gas combined-cycle generating units in some areas of the country cheaper to operate than coal-fired plants. The increase in natural gas-fired generation has largely come at the expense of coal generation. Generation from both fuels generally falls during the spring months as power plant operators take units offline for maintenance when electricity demand is relatively low. The convergence is not expected to last, as EIA forecasts slowly rising natural gas prices through the rest of the year. Prices at the natural gas benchmark Henry Hub are forecast to reach an average of $3.13 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by the fourth quarter of 2015, up from an average of $2.90/MMBtu in the first quarter.

Page 8: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

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Rising natural gas costs and the return of coal plants after spring maintenance will likely increase the level of coal generation. Overall, EIA expects coal to account for an average of 36% of total U.S. generation in 2015 and natural gas to account for 31%.

A contributing factor in the declining share of coal generation is the recent retirement of some coal-fired power plants. These plants are shutting down as power generators respond to the sustained competitiveness of natural gas prices and to the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) regulations. In addition to 4.1 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity that was retired last year, plant operators have retired or plan to retire 12.8 GW of coal capacity in 2015. These retiring coal plants are generally smaller units that have typically operated at lower capacity factors in recent years. In 2014, the average capacity factor for all coal units was 61%, but the subset of coal units retiring in 2015 had an average capacity factor of just 36%. The coal capacity retiring in 2015 accounted for 1.6% of total U.S. generation during 2014.

Page 9: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Latvia’s forest gas storage to shape Baltics energy balance Reuters + NewBase

Buried under heavy clay deep in the Latvian birch forests, sit the giant Soviet era gas reservoirs whose fate draws together the main players in the tense energy power game of the Baltics. A share in the site is for sale, which will dent Russia’s influence. The asking price from the German

stake-seller deterred Latvia itself from stepping in, leaving a European Commission-linked fund as the only bidder, government sources say. Looking on are Latvia’s Baltic neighbours, who are at least as keen to cut their reliance on Russian gas. The site’s capacity is enough to see Latvia and also Estonia through the winter, while Lithuania hopes to use it to hold some of its gas imports.

Beginning in June, the Latvian parliament will start debating its draft law to split Latvijas Gaze, the operator of its prize energy asset, into two, bringing it in line with EU liberalisation law. The storage facility minimises the need for pipelines as gas is injected during the low demand summer season and withdrawn during the winter.

Latvijas Gaze’s main shareholders are Russia’s Gazprom, with 34%, which provides the gas and Germany’s E.ON, which has said it will sell its 47.2% stake. Gazprom has not disclosed any plans. E.ON has been progressively selling assets. Last year, it sold a 38.9% stake in Lithuania’s gas company and also in its grid. The sale netted €113.2mn ($128.78mn), a discount of 15% to the market value on the Vilnius exchange. For its stake in Latvijas Gaze, E.ON asked for €220mn, government officials said, after the Latvian

government submitted a non-binding offer to buy it in September last year. The government said that price was too high. Now government sources say the Marguerite Fund is the exclusive bidder. The equity fund and E.ON decline to comment. “There is an uncertainty about the proposal for legislation and most probably the Marguerite Fund takes it into consideration, but I believe there won’t be anything to make Marguerite rethink its plans,” one government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said. He said it was hard to judge the price, but his impression was “lower than €220mn.” Set up under

Latvijas Gaze’s underground gas storage facility

in Incukalns, Latvia

Page 10: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

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Luxembourg law to invest in strategic EU energy projects, the Marguerite Fund has the backing of the European Investment Bank and the European Commission. The details are unclear, but the government has said Latvijas Gaze will be divided into two: one company for sales and distribution, and another to hold the strategic infrastructure. Latvijas Gaze says maintaining the existing monopoly is the best solution, but accepts it will have to conform to EU law once Latvia’s derogation ends early in April 2017. Both sides have a point, analysts say. Latvian gas demand has plunged with the collapse of industry, falling to around 1.3 bcm from nearly 3 bcm in 1991. Efficiency and renewable energy could cut demand further. “If these member states physically connect their markets, the aggregate demand could be enough to spur investments and get some competition going,” said Tim Boersma of the Brookings Institution in Washington. But he added the Baltic States could be an instance of a region that “cannot avoid paying some form of a premium to safeguard energy security”. Lithuania has weakened Gazprom’s dominance by investing in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, which has allowed it to negotiate cheaper prices, but over time could augment them given the added costs of LNG versus pipeline gas, analysts say. It wants Latvia to liberalise, as it has done, to fire up a regional market and Lithuania hopes that at some point its LNG will be among the gas pumped into the Incukalns storage. This year’s injection season begins late in May, a month later than usual following a mild winter. The ground shakes as gas, most of which has travelled 3,500 miles from Siberia, is injected to a maximum of 4.5bn cubic metres. Around half is working gas and half technical gas that maintains pressure.

Page 11: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Oil steadies below $67 as global glut builds Reuters + Newbase

Brent crude oil steadied below $67 a barrel on Friday 15 May-2015 after reports that a growing supply glut is boosting inventories worldwide. Oil futures have rallied strongly since January after collapsing last year but analysts say the rebound may have overshot, and could be about to correct. Although the US oil market is becoming more balanced, production elsewhere is still running well ahead of consumption. "A mood change is in the air," Eugen Weinberg, global head of oil and commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum. "The oil price rally looks like it may be slowly running of steam." Brent for July was at $66.60 a barrel by 1100 GMT, down 10 cents from Thursday's close and trading in a narrow 55-cent range. U.S. crude for June was down 32 cents at $59.56 a barrel.

Page 12: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Major market forecasters including the International Energy Agency (IEA) say big oil producers in Opec are pumping at least 2 million barrels per day (bpd) more than required, filling up inventories from Europe to China. The US government's Energy Information Administration says world oil stocks are rising at 1.95 million bpd this quarter and will continue to build until at least the end of 2016. Although demand for fuel is likely to pick up in the second half of this year, the current oversupply is so great there is unlikely to be any shortage any time soon unless there is a major, unexpected interruption to production. "We have an oversupply of more than 2 million bpd, almost 3 million bpd. It must weigh on the market," Weinberg said. Thomas Pugh, economist at Capital Economics, agreed: "The rally got ahead of itself. We think oil prices are more likely to fall over the rest of this year than to rise." Investors kept a close eye on rising tension in the Middle East after Iranian vessels fired shots at a Singapore-flagged tanker in the Gulf on Thursday. President Barack Obama vowed on Thursday to back Gulf allies against any "external attack," seeking to reassure them about their security amid Arab anxiety over U.S.-led efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran. Baker Hughes will release weekly US rig count data later on Friday. The data has become a closely watched indicator to gauge adjustments in US production.

Page 13: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Rig Count Overview & Summary Count

From: Baker Hughes

Area Last Count Count Change from

Prior Count

Date of

Prior Count

Change from

Last Year

Date of Last

Year's Count

U.S. 15 May 2015 888 -6 8 May 2015 -973 15 May 2014

Canada 15 May 2015 77 +2 8 May 2015 -76 15 May 2014

International April 2015 1202 -49 March 2015 -147 April 2014

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944,

when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Hughes

initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released

weekly at noon central time on the last day of the work week. The international rig count is

released on the fifth working day of each month.

The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its

suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil

service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in

drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons.

Baker Hughes Rig Counts are published by major newspapers and trade publications, are referred

to frequently by journalists, economists, security analysts and government officials, and are

included in many industry statistical reports. Because they have been compiled consistently for 70

years, Baker Hughes Rig Counts also are useful in historical analysis of the industry.

Page 14: NewBase 605 special 17 May 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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No winner yet as oil prices still remain in flux Rashid Hussain + SG + NewBase

WHO won this round of battle? With oil prices creeping and crossing the $60-mark, there is a growing buzz all around that Opec, led by Saudi Arabia, has emerged victorious in this round. And the debate is raging.

When in that decisive ministerial in Vienna on November 27, 2014, Opec finally opted not to cut output - as some felt then imperative to strengthen the markets - rather than

keeping it steady - pundits underlined that the Gulf oil producers were endeavoring to flush out new competitors from the arena. Many believed the strategy also converged with the geopolitical objectives of the Gulf oil producers. Markets have strengthened in the meantime. Some are also beginning to feel relieved - the strategy was working. While talking to The Financial Times, an unnamed Saudi official, reportedly confirmed this was part of the kingdom’s strategy; “there is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshore and heavy oils,” he said, adding that “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil … we want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.” No policy reversal seems in sight at the moment. Opec’s monthly oil report said the kingdom’s production rose to a record high of 10.3 million bpd in April, a slight rise over the previous month’s total of 10.29 million bpd. This is the highest oil production level in more than three decades. The strategy has still to go a long way further. The Paris-based International Energy Agency, however, believes the battle for markets share is just getting started. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA confirms that Opec’s tactic was working - to some extent. The relentless output increment of the US shale oil output is halting - courtesy months of cost-cutting. The Agency now expects the US shale oil output growth to slow by 80,000 barrels a day this month. IEA now estimates that the number of rigs running in the US plunged around 60% in response to lower oil prices. The US shale had “buckled” in April “bringing a multiyear winning streak to an apparent close,” the IEA noted. The agency is predicting a 57,0000 bpd-decline in the US output for May and a further 86,000 bpd will disappear in June. However, other non-OPEC producers too continue to ramp up production, IEA highlighted, raising its forecast of 2015 non-OPEC production growth by 200,000 bpd to 830,000 bpd. Russia’s output too jumped an unexpected 185,000 bpd year-on-year in April and Brazilian production was up 17% in the first quarter, the IEA added. Meanwhile, production in China, Vietnam and Malaysia has also shown persistently strong growth.

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The IEA expects Chinese oil production to increase by 100,000 barrels a day this year to 4.3 million barrels a day. A recent rally in oil prices could also give US shale oil producers a fresh lease of life. “It would thus be premature to suggest that OPEC has won the battle for market share. The battle, rather, has just started,” the IEA underlined. IEA report then further adds that Opec’s decision not to cut output in November was only “the first step in a plan that includes actually ramping up output and aggressively investing in future production capacity.” While non-OPEC producers are cutting costs, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are all expanding their drilling programs. Iraq’s oil production hit its highest level since 1979 in April and Iranian supplies hit their highest since July 2012. The IEA thus points out, in rather clear terms, that it would still be too early to suggest if Opec has finally won the battle for market space. US shale producers too are contesting the success of the Opec strategy in squeezing them out. EOG Resources, the largest shale oil producer in the US, is projecting a return to “double-digit” production growth, if the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, rises to $65 per barrel or higher. Occidental Petroleum Corp. too has boosted its planned production for the year. Other drillers too are saying they would open the taps if WTI touches $70-mark. And in the meantime, oil production in North Dakota too has increased by 1 percent despite obvious signs of a slowdown in the state’s shale reserve areas. As per the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) oil production report in March, the last full month for which data was available, was 1.19 million barrels per day, up from the 1.18 million bpd in February. The increase comes despite a drop in the number of rigs active in the No. two oil producer in the nation. “The drilling rig count dropped 25 from February to March, 17 more from March to April, and has since fallen 8 more from April to today,” the NDIC said in its monthly report. The rig count of 83 is the lowest since January 2010. Yet the output is up. The strategy to flood the crude market and squeeze out US producers won’t work, and the claim of success is premature, Harold Hamm, the founder of Oklahoma-based Continental Resources said late last week on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”. The strategy adopted by Opec has “ almost guaranteed us an outlet to world markets.” It might in fact help rally support in Washington for lifting the decades-old US export ban, prohibiting American producers from selling crude overseas, he said. “We’ve had our hands tied behind our backs here without being able to export oil,” said Hamm. “It looks like now we may get that opportunity.” It is perhaps in this perspective that investment bank Goldman Sachs is suggesting the rebound in crude prices was “premature” as there’s still far more oil being pumped and stored than the world needs. Opec strategy is working, markets have definitely improved, yet, the war is on. The final hurrah is still to be made!

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The Long Term Impact Of Low Cheap Oil On The GCC By :Abhay Bhargava + NewBase

Volatile fuel prices could be a good thing for the GCC, writes Abhay Bhargava,

associate director and regional head – ME, Energy & Environment Practice,

Frost & Sullivan.

The current situation of a drop in oil prices is not something new to the industry, but the rapid decline is a reason for concern.

The concern is significantly higher in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where the oil and gas sector still contributes to the GDP to a large extent — it has been contributing anywhere between 80-85 per cent of GDP on average for the last three years.

Oil prices have been prone to fluctuations in the past, affected by not just the supply-demand equations, but also perceptions that are primarily fuelled by political and socio-economic issues (Suez crisis, Iran – Iraq war, Asian economic crisis, etc.).

However, over the long term, the future for oil is expected to remain stable. This may sound contradictory until some specific factors are considered.

First, we need to look at the reasons for the current drop in oil prices. This drop can be attributed to a number of key factors, a constant reduction in US imports (substituted by domestic production and Canadian imports), which have declined by nearly three million barrels per day, the European slump over the long term, fuelled by a slower economy and a drop-off in the refining sector, reduced Chinese demand over the short term and inaction on the part of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce supply, as a means to increase prices.

Over the long term, some of these factors will remain in play and oil demand is indeed likely to be challenged, and in certain regions/ industries, this demand will actually decline.

Alternate sources of energy, primarily renewables, are expected to see an increase in adoption, fuelled by increasing efficiency through R&D and decline in production costs. Energy efficiency measures are likely to gain significant momentum in two major end-user segments: Power generation and vehicles (primarily in developed countries). These factors would result in a decrease in consumption of oil in developed nations as well as nations that have abundant access to renewable sources of energy.

However, there are other factors that would counter the decline to a large extent.

Increased consumption from other sources, including the refining and industrial sector, fuelled by growth from developing countries, will offset the decline emanating from other sources outlined above.

From a regional perspective, over the long term, while the US demand for oil imports is likely to decline, a significant increase is forecast across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and in totality, global consumption of oil is also likely to increase.

The supply of oil itself is expected to face challenges in the long term, which in turn could result in increased opportunities for oil exploration and production.

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Existing conventional oil production fields are facing the issue of depletion. A detailed report published by the UK Energy Research Centre cites a 6.5 per cent/annum average rate of decline in fields that are past their peak of production and four per cent/annum in current producing fields. Considering the overall long-term increase in demand, coupled with the forecast decline rates, we do not expect the oil industry to face sustained challenges.

These fluctuations in oil price are expected to significantly impact selective segments of the industry that have a high dependence on high oil prices including oil fields that are in advanced stages of maturity, or decline, such as in the North Sea, deep water production zones and countries that need higher oil prices to sustain their economies like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.

However, these fluctuations would only have a short-term impact on US shale frackers. This is due to the strategic importance of reducing US dependence on oil imports and a trait peculiar to this industry where production shutdowns and restarts are much quicker compared to conventional oil facilities. Hence, we do not expect to see a long-term impact of fluctuating oil prices on the US shale industry.

Looking towards the GCC, while member countries enjoy a large contribution to their economies due to oil, they also face a substantial outflow to this account in the form of subsidies.

Annually, the six nations in the GCC spend between $50-$60 billion as subsidies on oil alone, which is nearly five per cent of combined GDP for 2013. If oil continues to face fluctuations, GCC countries are likely to focus on re-routing part of these subsidies towards developing alternate sources of energy as a means to build greater sustainability in their energy mix. This will prove to be eventually beneficial for the renewables sector.

Additionally, there have been significant attempts by GCC countries to reduce their dependence on oil, which is clearly visible in the reduction of oil’s contribution to GDP over the last five years.

To conclude, while the GCC has faced a significant decline in potential earnings on account of the recent oil fluctuations, over the long term, we see a positive impact across both the oil producing sector and the non-oil sector, allowing for a more holistic development of the region as a whole.

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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile: +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 17 May 2015 K. Al Awadi

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publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19