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Performance review for investors as of 01/22/2010.
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Novo Asset Management LLC
Performance ReviewAs of January 22, 2010
NOS VOBISCUM
2
Legal Disclaimer
“This information has been prepared as a summary to describe certain trading strategies developed by Novo Asset Management LLC. This summary does not constitute an offering of limited partnership interest in any fund managed by Novo Asset Management LLC. An offering may only be made by means of a private placement memorandum for the applicable fund. Investors are urged to read the private placement memorandum in its entirety before making an investment decision.”
NOS VOBISCUM
3
Roadmap for Performance Presentation
1) Investing strategy2) Performance analysis3) Performance explanation4) Outlook for our value investment strategy5) Review6) Contact information7) Appendix
NOS VOBISCUM
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Investing Strategy
– Fundamentals of Success (The 3 I’s)• Investments with a margin of safety• Investors with a long term value orientation• Incentives aligned to focus on risks first, rewards second
– Investment Discipline• Bottom Up strategy• Focusing on discounts to value
– Concentrating on Discount to Net Asset Value while looking at DCF skeptically
– Divestment Discipline• Double down on research, evaluate, take appropriate action• Going up - 100% return in 2 to 4 years
– Sell at full value, do not get greedy• Going down – 10% down
– If Cheaper – Buy more– If a value trap – Divest
NOS VOBISCUM
Investing Fundamentals
Quantitative Analysis
Strong Operating Results
- Long-Term Earnings Growth
-Above Average ROE
-Significant FCF
-Above Average Dividend Yield
Attractive Price
-Significant Pricing Anomaly
-Low Pricing Multiples (e.g., P/E, P/B, P/FCF) Relative to Industry
Conservative Balance Sheet
-Low Debt
-Above Average Current Ratio
-Share Repurchases
Qualitative Analysis
IndustryPositioning
-Threats to Industry Relevance
-Regulatory Concerns
- Capital Intensity
Durable Competitive Advantage
-Does the company control a key resource?
-Does the company effectively execute a sustainable strategy?
-Does the company have a strong brand?
Sustainability
- How will these questions be answered in 5 years? 10 years?
NOS VOBISCUM 5
6
Executing our Strategy: Tactical Overview
Dig– Week 1 Publicly Traded Companies
Discover – Week 220 companies
Digest – Week 310 companies
Decide – Week 40-3 companies
Investment Process Sample Screen
I. All public companiesII. Countries of choiceIII. Industries in which to focus or
eliminateIV. All companies with positive earningsV. All companies with positive book valueVI. Bottom 10% book value
NOS VOBISCUM
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Performance Overview - Top Holdings as of 01/22/10
Rank Symbol CompanyMarket Value
% of Portfolio
Unrealized G/L
Industry
1 CONN Conn's Inc. 1,016,000$ 9.0% 6.54% Consumer Services2 CASH Cash 851,013 7.6% 0.00% N/A3 CBR Ciber Inc. 837,720 7.5% 11.86% IT Services4 NE Noble Corp. 770,740 6.9% 2.51% Energy5 SNV Synovous Fin Corp. 708,000 6.3% 56.08% Financial Services
6 PTRY Pantry 698,775 6.2% -6.27% Consumer Services7 AMED Amedisys Inc. 695,640 6.2% 55.08% Healthcare Services8 SUSQ Susquehanna 622,890 5.5% 37.08% Financial Services9 CAB Cabela's Inc. 612,720 5.5% 35.18% Consumer Services10 NLS Nautilus Inc. 611,240 5.4% 31.78% Consumer Goods
NOS VOBISCUM
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Portfolio Construction Relative to the S&P 500
Portfolio(% of stocks)
S&P (%)
Information 7.9% 23.4%Software 7.9% 4.5%Hardware 0.0% 11.0%Media 0.0% 2.5%Telecom. 0.0% 5.4%
Services 54.0% 39.5%Health Care 6.7% 12.4%Consumer 25.3% 8.6%Business 9.3% 3.3%Financial 12.7% 15.2%
Manufacturing 38.1% 37.1%Consumer Goods 20.4% 10.9%Industrial 4.6% 10.8%Energy 7.3% 11.8%Utilities 5.9% 3.7%
Not Classified 0.0% 0.0%
NOS VOBISCUM
PortfolioRelative to
S&P
Price/Prospective Earnings 10.55 0.72Price/Book Ratio 0.62 0.29
Projected EPS Growth - 5yr % 10.75 1.14
Yield% 0.37 0.18
Average Market Cap 605.76 0.01
9
Risk Adjusted Return as of 01/22/10 Compared to Other Teams
Thena
rdier
Cluste
rfund
Shor
tTCM
Soni
ctheh
edge
fund
Test1
23
Losso
ros
Triumvi
rate
Chiefs
capi
tal
Ston
ehed
ge
BetaChi
dwan
g27
(5.00)
(4.00)
(3.00)
(2.00)
(1.00)
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
Sharpe Ratio
% Return
NOS VOBISCUM
NOVO
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Performance as of 01/22/10
Beginning Balance: $10,000,000Ending Balance: $10,986,654ROI: 9.87%
NOS VOBISCUM
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Performance Explanation
ROI
9,347,070.59 851,286.56
10,198,357.15 1.98%
10,135,367.00 851,286.56
10,986,653.56 9.87%
7.88%
Asset Class ValueCash Value
Total Portfolio Value
Actual Portfolio ValueCash Value
Total Portfolio Value
Returns Attributable to Asset Allocation
Total Returns
Returns Attributable to Stock Selection
Returns exceed what could be attributed to either Beta or asset class selection.
Alpha 4.08% Per Periodn 3 Monthsb 1.321 Portfolio Betax -1.79% Return of S&P 500y 9.87% Return of Fund
NOS VOBISCUM
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Executing our Strategy: Specific Examples
– Largest percentage gains• Amedysis (AMED: Original Price Target = $63.00)
– Undervalued, misunderstood– Great demographics, strong and steady growth– Trading with significant margin of safety based on book value
and growth prospects – Steady increase of earnings for last 10 years (trading at P/E of
8x while comps were 14-17x)
• Synovus (SNV: Original Price Target = $2.46)– The inside story (Total Systems to Synovus)– Personal familiarity with the bank and their strategy to
aggressively write off loans
NOS VOBISCUM
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Executing our Strategy: Specific Examples
– Largest percentage losses• Pantry (PTRY: Current Price Target = $36.00)
– Enhancing their equity» Market Cap = $290MM» Investing in 2009 = $166MM» Paydown of Debt = $52MM
– Strategy of growing business through acquisition of mom & pop convenience stores
• Borders (BGP: Original Price Target = $2.50)– Repositioning to a higher margin strategy– Ratcheting down on expenses– Discussion with management– Ultimately sold > CEO left co. & potential credit concerns
NOS VOBISCUM
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Outlook for Our Value Investment Strategy
– Near Term• Considerable uncertainty in the market, stock selection
is even more important• Risk premiums appear to have decreased, as such, it
may be difficult to find bargains but we’ll keep looking
– Long Term (there will always be irrationality)• Distressed situations, with a specific company, industry
or geography, security type• Chaotic situations• Insider +/- actions
NOS VOBISCUM
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Review
• Novo Asset Management is a value-focused investment company. Our goals include: – Develop long-term, mutually beneficial relationships with investors
by maintaining trust and generating sustained excess returns.– Position the managers and investors as team members by:
• Aligning the compensation structure• Investing along-side LPs
– Incentive structure:• Management Fee = 1.5%• On the Upside = earn a % of all returns over +10YT• On the Downside = pay a % of all returns under -10YT
Our Guiding Strategy: Nos Vobiscum. We position ourselves on the same side of the table as our investors, and get paid for taking risks, not for chasing the S&P.
NOS VOBISCUM
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Appendix
NOS VOBISCUM
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AMED Valuation
Present Value of FCFF in high growth phase = $629.35 2009 EPS EstimatesPresent Value of Terminal Value of Firm = $1,778.89Value of the firm = $2,408.23 Reuters $4.84
Firstcall $4.87Cash and Marketable Securities = $45.20
Average $4.86Market Value of outstanding debt = $444.80
Market Value of Equity = $2,008.63 Current AMED P/Earnings Est. 11.12Value of Equity options issued by the company = $185.00Market Value of Equity (Less options) $1,823.63 Current Comps P/Earnings Est.* 12.47
No. of Shares Outstanding 27.96 Implied Share Price at Comps Multiple $60.54
Market Value of Equity/share = $65.22
Target Stock Price = $62.88
*Note: Peers are comprised of 3 companies including Gentiva Health Sciences, LHC Group and Almost Family
DCF Valuation Price/Earnings Valuation
NOS VOBISCUM
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SNV Valuation
Price to Book Value Calculation
Macquarie - Jan. 29, 2010Peer Analysis* 2009A 2010E 2011E
2009A 2010E 2011EP/BV 0.5 0.6 0.5 Peer Price/Book 0.69 0.69 0.69
Book Value Per Share 3.96 2.94 3.97 Avg. Book Value Per Share $4.00 $3.09 $3.78Tangible Book Value Per Share 3.88 2.87 3.91
Implied Price - P/BV $2.76 $2.13 $2.60Implied Price-P/BV $1.98 $1.76 $1.99
FIG Partners - Jan. 29, 2010
Book Value Per Share 4.04 3.23 3.58
Implied Price-P/BV (using Macquarie P/BV) $2.02 $1.94 $1.79
Average Implied Price - P/BV $2.00 $1.85 $1.89
Weighting Analyst Estimates 40% Peer Population Estimates 60%
Thenardier Price Expectation $2.46
*Note: Peers are comprised of 304 institutions within the same SIC code, operate in the same region as SNV, and have a similar amount of assets.
NOS VOBISCUM
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PTRY Valuation
Normalized EBIT (1- tax rate) = $94.94
- (Capital Spending - Depreciation) $0.00
- Change in Working Capital $7.00
Free Cashflow to Firm = $87.94
Cost of Equity = 10.30%
Cost of Debt = 5.38%
Cost of Capital = 6.84%
Expected Growth rate = 2.00%
Value of Firm $1,852.63
Value of Cash & Equivalents $179.50
Value Per Share $36.16
1 Stage Growth Valuation
NOS VOBISCUM
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BGP Valuation
EBIT (1- tax rate) = $46.50
- (Capital Spending - Depreciation) $0.00
- Change in Working Capital $6.00
Free Cashflow to Firm = $40.50
Cost of Equity = 14.85%
Cost of Debt = 7.44%
Cost of Capital = 9.65%
Expected Growth rate = 2.00%
Value of Firm $540.29
Value of Cash & Equivalents $45.00
Value Per Share $4.96
1 Stage Growth Valuation
NOS VOBISCUM
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