200 years of economic history and how I ruined the world

Stewart Cowley, Head of Fixed Income

Can hold currencies

outside the fund base or not

Wide duration range –

both positive and negative

Can hold up to 50% in corporate bonds

or not2

3

200 years of health and wealth

1960

1918

75

40$400 $40,000

Health

WealthSource: UN

4

1960 1965 1972 1977 1987 2011

5

Global reserves$10 trillion East Asia

and Pacific$5.5trillion

Japan$1trillion

Middle East$1trillion

US$0.5trillion

Source: IMF

6

Global imbalances

Source: Bloomberg

5,000

3,000

1,000

-3,000

-5,000

-7,000

-9,000

-1,000

Developing national reserves

US Treasury borrowing

7

200 years of health and wealth

Source: UN

40

75

Health

Wealth$400 $40,000

8

200 years of health and wealth

Source: UN

40

75

Health

Wealth$400 $40,000

9

1960Global Over-Eaters Index Daily Calories/2,245

Source: UN

1.0

0.9

1.3

0.9

0.7

1.1

1.4

1.1

1.7

1.2

1.3

1.4

2008

10

Calorie-in-take and Income

Source: UN

11

The carbon blipReserves

Time

Knownreserves

12

Cars sold in China and US each yearMillions

Source: Bloomberg

2005 2007 2009

20

15

10

5

US

China

13 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Internet usage over last 20 years

Source: UN

68%

8%

75%

24%

14

Annual Australian coal exports to China

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Millions tonnes

Source: Bloomberg

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

15 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Alternative energy usage over last 50 years

Source: UN

39%

4%

1%

6%

0%

ME 0%

43%

18%

11%

15%

3%

ME 1%

16 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Gold

1oz 15

Source: UN

17 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Gold and oil

If you think oil is going to $150 then….

Gold will be 15 x 150 = $2,250

140

US$/barrel

1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009

100

60

20

Source: Datastream

18 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Strategic conclusions

19 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

The global trend towards health and wealth is having profound effects

Embrace deficit reducers

Avoid deficit creators

Embrace commodity currencies –inflation is coming

Embrace companies at “pinch points” in the supply chain

20 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Portfolio conclusions

Buy Australian Dollar, Canadian

dollar, South African Rand.Avoid the US

dollar

Avoid government

bonds – create a negative duration

Buy companies with low gearing and unique

product placements21

22 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Duration

Preparing for yields to rise….

Total duration -3.4

Source: OMAM, 23/05/11

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

US Euro UK Corporate

23 Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK)

Currency

Preparing for the US dollar to fall…

Building euro and commodity

currency positions

USD

Euro

Commodity

UK

Other

Source: OMAM, 23/05/11

We face some very large challenges going forwards

Protecting our clients’ money is going to be of utmost importance

We are going to need all the tools we can find to manage our way through

Conclusions

25

Important information

This investment presentation is for professional clients only and is not to be distributed to or relied upon by private investors.

This information is being communicated only to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001, as amended (the Order) and to persons to whom it may otherwise be lawful to communicate it to (all such persons being referred to as relevant persons). Other persons should not rely or act upon this document or any of its contents. The recipient should not use the information in this document in any way which would constitute 'market abuse'.

OMAM has no house market view and opinions expressed are the views of individual fund manager(s) as at the time of writing. Information and opinions have been compiled or arrived at by Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited (OMAM) from sources believed to be reliable, but neither OMAM nor Old Mutual Fund Managers Limited (OMFM) accepts liability for any loss arising from the use hereof nor makes any representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Any underlying research or analysis has been procured by OMAM for its own purposes and may have been acted on by OMAM or an associate for its or their own purposes.

This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made by OMAM, its advisors or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document and any reliance you place on them will be at your sole risk. The Company: Old Mutual Dublin Funds plc, 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland. The Company is an Irish law umbrella UCITS authorised by the Irish Financial Regulator. This fund is authorised by the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority and is registered for distribution in UK, Sweden, France and Switzerland.

Issued by Old Mutual Asset Managers (OMAM), the trading name of Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited and Old Mutual Fund Managers Limited. Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Limited, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4P 4WR, England. Registered in England No. 2949554. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. Telephone calls may be recorded for security purposes and to improve our customer service. U5824/05/11