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State Street commissioned the Economist Intelligence Unit to conduct a survey of 200 global institutional investors with exposure to renminbi assets.
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1
Renminbi rising Onshore and offshore
perspectives on Chinese
financial liberalisation
February 2014
2
Research questions
What is the expected pace of financial liberalisation in China?
What will happen next? What should be done next?
What barriers and obstacles are there to opening the capital
account?
What will the impact be of opening up?
Until then, how will the offshore market develop?
How do opinions on these issues differ between investors based
in mainland China and those outside it?
3
“Crossing the river by feeling for stones”
QFII
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RMB
retail
banking
in HK
End of
peg to
US$
Dim
sum
bonds
begin QDII
Cross-
border
RMB
trade
settle-
ment
RQFII
Mutual
recogni
tion for
HK
funds
(?)
4
Rapid progress
• Renminbi overtook 22 currencies in past 3 years
Source: SWIFT Watch January 2014
5
Research methodology
6
Survey respondents
7
Key findings
8
A redback world…?
• 53% of IIs think
renminbi will one day
surpass US$ as major
reserve currency
9
Not so fast
• Majority think full liberalisation will happen within 10 years
• But 1 in 5 Chinese IIs think it will never happen
10
Ranking the renminbi
11
What will happen next?
12
What will happen next? (cont.)
13
What should happen next?
14
What should happen next? (cont.)
15
What will get in the way?
16
Effects of opening up
17
Effects of opening up (cont.)
18
Why go offshore?
19
What to buy?
20
Where to buy?
CORP-0955