Upload
barry-mendelson
View
346
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
Quarterly Market ReviewBarry Mendelson, CFP®President & Financial Advisor
1399 Y i V ll Rd S it 24 b @ l tiy
First Quarter 20131399 Ygnacio Valley Rd, Suite 24 [email protected] Creek, CA 94598 925-348-5852
www.elevationwm.com
Disclosures
Opinions expressed are those of Barry Mendelson, CFP® and Elevation Wealth Management.
This presentation should not be construed as investment advice.
The information contained in this presentation is compiled from sources p pbelieved to be reliable.
Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
2
About
Barry Mendelson, CFP®
Local investment and personal finance professional. More than 18 years experienceLocal investment and personal finance professional. More than 18 years experience working for leading financial services companies including Charles Schwab, AXA Rosenberg, Neuberger Berman, and Franklin Templeton. Prior to forming Elevation Wealth Management in 2011, was a Vice President in Charles Schwab & Co’s $250 billi i t t t di i i C tifi d Fi i l Pl ™ tifi tbillion investment management division. Certified Financial Planner™ certificate holder since 2008. Board of Directors Financial Planning Association of the East Bay, Cancer Support Community of the Bay Area, and Chairs 4 Charity. B.A. in Business Economics & Accounting from U.C. Santa Barbara in 1995.co o cs & ccou t g o U C Sa ta a ba a 995
Elevation Wealth Management
El ti W lth M t i S F i B A b d R i t dElevation Wealth Management is a San Francisco Bay Area based Registered Investment Advisor that provides investment management and financial planning services to discerning individuals, families, and companies across the United States. As an independent and privately held firm – Elevation specializes in helping p p y p p ginvestors grow, manage, and protect their wealth. As a Fiduciary and fee-only –Elevation places the interests of clients above all else.
3
Timeline of Events: Quarter in ReviewTimeline of Events: Quarter in ReviewFirst Quarter 2013
Data show US retail sales increased 1.1% in February, the largest rise since
Fiscal cliff –US House of Representatives
d t US S t ’Euro zone’s
FOMC minutes signal debate on scaling back US central bank’s bond buying program.
US Federal Reserve
Haruhiko Kuroda named governor of Bank of Japan.
September 2012.Data show US GDP rose 0.4% in Q4 2012, revised from prior estimate of 0 1% dadopts US Senate’s
budget bill.recession deepens as exports from leading economies suffer and Q4 GDP falls 0.6%.
Dow Jones closes at record high of 14,253, topping record set in October 2007.
announces it will continue purchasing $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion of Treasury
p
Cyprus reaches €10B rescue deal with IMF, EU and ECB
0.1% decrease.
World Bank cuts 2013 forecast for global growth from 3% to 2.4%.
ysecurities each month. Italy’s election
ends in deadlocked parliament.
EU, and ECB.
12/31/2012 03/29/201312/31/2012 03/29/2013
4The graph illustrates the MSCI All Country World Index (net div.) daily returns over the quarter. Source: MSCI data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. The events highlighted are not intended to explain market movements. The index is not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Quarterly Numbers-in-Review
U.S. and International Market IndexesJanuary 1, 2013 through March 31, 2013
Global Emerging Int’l Small Int’l Value U.S. REIT U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. Gov/ 1-5 Year Bonds
+0.2%
MarketsStocks
-1.6%
Stocks
+7.2%
Stocks
+3.1%
Stocks
+7.0%
Small Cap Stocks
+12.4%
Value Stocks
+12.3%
Large Cap Stocks
+10.6%
Credit 1-3 Year Bonds
+0.2%
BONDSU.S. STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKSONEYear 14.0% 18.8% 16.3% 13.2% 10.4% 10.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2%
FIVE 5 8% 4 9% 8 2% 6 1% 1 2% 2 0% 1 1% 2 7% 2 4%
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013 Market segment (Index representation) as follows: U S Market (Russell 3000 Index); U S Small Company Stocks (Russell 2000 Index) U SAnnualized for 5 and 10 Year Periods
Years 5.8% 4.9% 8.2% 6.1% -1.2% 2.0% 1.1% 2.7% 2.4%
TEN Years 8.5% 9.2% 11.5% 12.1% 10.3% 13.1% 17.0% 3.3% 3.0%
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Market segment (Index representation) as follows: U.S. Market (Russell 3000 Index); U.S. Small Company Stocks (Russell 2000 Index), U.S.Value Stocks (Russell 1000 Value Index). U.S. Real Estate Market (Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index), International Developed (MSCI EAFE Index (net div.)), EmergingMarkets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div)), Global Bonds (Citi WGBI 1-5 Yr Hdg USD), US Bonds (BofA ML Corp & Govt 1-3 Yr TR). Indexes are unmanaged baskets ofsecurities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Pastperformance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currencychanges, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.
All-Time Market Highs
S&P 500 Performance
Calendar Days Between New High and Market Peak
Gain Between New High and Bull
Markets End
Best Case 2,711
132
222%
%Worst Case
Median of all i 1954
132
417
2.3%
18%cases since 1954
Mean of all cases since 1954
417
644 40%
S “W ld D d t b k t t ?” M k tW t h F b 28 2013 I d d b k t f iti th t t il bl f di t i t t b
since 1954
Source: “Would new Dow record set a bear market trap?”, MarketWatch, Feb 28, 2013. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment byinvestors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Allinvestments involve risk, including loss of principal.
All Time Market HighsAll-Time Market Highs
If Investors had bought on the date of a new high on the S&P 500:
P iti t f 8 t f 9 5 h ldi i d• Positive returns for 8 out of 9 5-year holding periods (October 2007 is the exception)
P iti t f ll 10 h ldi i d• Positive returns for all 10-year holding periods
Source: NY Times, April 5, 2013: “Even After New Highs, the Rally May Last” by James B. StewartPast performance does not guarantee future result.
Individual Country ReturnsJanuary 1, 2012 through December 31, 2012
Developed Markets (% Returns) Emerging Markets (% Returns)
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI All Country World IMI Index (for developed markets) and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD currency and net of withholding tax on dividends. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.
8
International InvestingRanking of Markets Around the World — Ten-Year Performance in US DollarsAnnualized Returns Year Ending December 31, 2012
9
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Countries represented by their respective MSCI IMI(net div.). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot directly invest; they do not reflect the payment of advisory fees or other expenses associated with specific investments or the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.
The Need for DiversificationA t Cl I d P f 1997 2011
HighestReturn
Asset Class Index Performance 1997-2011
LowestReturnReturn
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.Data Sources: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), BARRA Inc. and Morgan Stanley Capital International, March 2012. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes,political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Treasury bills are guaranteed as to repayment of principal and interest by the U.S. government.This information does not constitute a solicitation for sale of any securities. CRSP ranks all NYSE companies by market capitalization and divides them into 10 equally-populated portfolios. AMEX and NASDAQ National Market stocks are thenplaced into deciles according to their respective capitalizations, determined by the NYSE breakpoints. CRSP Portfolios 1-5 represent large-cap stocks; Portfolios 6-10 represent small caps; Value is represented by companies with a book-to-market ratio in the top 30% of all companies Growth is represented by companies with a book-to-market ratio in the bottom 30% of all companies S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index The S&P 500 Index measures themarket ratio in the top 30% of all companies. Growth is represented by companies with a book to market ratio in the bottom 30% of all companies. S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor s 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index measures theperformance of large-capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the indexperformance directly proportional to that company’s market value. The MSCI EAFE Index (Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia, Far East Index) is comprised of over 1,000 companies representing the stock markets ofEurope, Australia, New Zealand and the Far East, and is an unmanaged index. EAFE represents non-U.S. large stocks. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes and differentmethods of accounting and financial reporting. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation. REITs, represented by the NAREIT Equity REIT Index, is an unmanaged market cap-weighted index comprised of 151 equity REITS.Emerging Markets index represents securities in countries with developing economies and provide potentially high returns. Many Latin American, Eastern European and Asian countries are considered emerging markets. Indexes areunmanaged baskets of securities without the fees and expenses associated with mutual funds and other investments. Investors cannot directly invest in an index.
Elevation’s Investment PhilosophyInvest For The Long TermInvest For The Long-TermThe Cycle of Market Emotions. Bad investments often lead to bad (investing)
behavior.
11
CommoditiesCommoditiesFirst Quarter 2013 Index Returns
C diti ttl d li htl l d i th Individual Commodity (% Returns)Commodities settled slightly lower during the first quarter, somewhat offsetting a strong comeback at the end of 2012.
The energy complex advanced, with natural gas providing significant total return during the period
6.12
14.92
16.25
WTI C d Oil
Unleaded Gas
Natural Gas
Cotton
Individual Commodity (% Returns)
providing significant total return during the period.
Precious metals finished lower, as investors’ sensitivity to economic and geopolitical risks eased.
Soft commodities generally finished lower. One -0.01
0.38
0.56
1.85
4.20
Heating Oil
Soybean
Brent Oil
WTI Crude Oil
Soybean Oilexception was cotton, as the market incorporated projections from the US Department of Agriculture that indicated a reduction in production capacity.
P i d R t (%) * A li d -6 48
-5.36
-5.03
-2.77
-0.36 Corn
Nickel
Gold
Live Cattle
Silver
Asset Class Q1 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years**
Commodities -1.13 -3.03 1.42 -7.11 3.67
Period Returns (%) * Annualized
-9.53
-8.28
-7.25
-6.57
-6.48 Silver
Coffee
Copper
Lean Hogs
Aluminum
-12.46
-9.99
-9.56 Sugar
ZincWheat
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return data provided by Dow Jones ©.
12
World Asset Classes
Th US k t l d it t d l d US d i k t ft t f i b th J d F b Th
World Asset ClassesFirst Quarter 2013 Index Returns
The US market led equity returns vs. developed ex US and emerging markets after strong performances in both January and February. The US yield curve steepened and remained upwardly sloped.
Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div.)
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. M k t t (i d t ti ) f ll US L C (S&P 500 I d ) US S ll C (R ll 2000 I d ) US V l (R ll 1000 V l I d ) US R l E t t (D J US S l t REIT I d ) Gl b l R l
MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index (net div.)
13
Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Large Cap (S&P 500 Index), US Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), US Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), US Real Estate (Dow Jones US Select REIT Index), Global Real Estate (S&P Global ex US REIT Index), International Developed Large, Small, and Value (MSCI World ex USA, ex USA Small, and ex USA Value Indexes [net div.]), Emerging Markets Large, Small, and Value (MSCI Emerging Markets, Emerging Markets Small, and Emerging Markets Value Indexes), US Bond Market (Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Treasury (One-Month US Treasury Bills). The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995–2012, all rights reserved. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data (formerly Dow Jones Wilshire) provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. US long-term bonds, bills, and inflation data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
US Stocks
R k d R t f th Q t (%)
US StocksFirst Quarter 2013 Index Returns
All j US t l t d iti lt
12 31
12.39
13.21
L C V l
Small Cap
Small Cap Growth
Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%)All major US asset classes posted positive results in the first quarter, with the broad market returning 11.07%. Asset class returns ranged from 9.54% for large growth stocks to 13.21% for small growth stocks.
Across the size spectrum small caps outperformed
10.61
11.07
11.63
12.31
Large Cap
Marketwide
Small Cap Value
Large Cap ValueAcross the size spectrum, small caps outperformed large caps. There was a positive value premium marketwide in the US, driven by the performance of large value and midcap value stocks; however, small cap value stocks underperformed small cap growth stocks.
9.54Large Cap Growth
P i d R t (%) * A li dW ld M k t C it li ti US Period Returns (%) * Annualized
Asset Class 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years**
Marketwide 14.56 12.97 6.32 9.15Large Cap 13.96 12.67 5.81 8.53Large Cap Value 18.77 12.74 4.85 9.1748%
World Market Capitalization—US
Large Cap Growth 10.09 13.06 7.30 8.62Small Cap 16.30 13.45 8.24 11.52Small Cap Value 18.09 12.12 7.29 11.29Small Cap Growth 14.52 14.75 9.04 11.61
US Market $17.4 trillion
14
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (S&P 500 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap: Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995–2012, all rights reserved. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group.
Select Country PerformanceSelect Country Performance
Th j it f d l d k t t d iti t J t k i d 12 27% th l l t ti d t
First Quarter 2013 Index Returns
The majority of developed markets posted positive returns. Japanese stocks gained 12.27%, as the local government continued to implement its stimulus program. After receiving its first investment-grade rating, the Philippines posted the highest performance among emerging markets.
Developed Markets (% Returns) Emerging Markets (% Returns)
9 449.84
10.8110.87
12.2714.66
Ne ZealandSweden
USSwitzerland
JapanIreland
6.57
8.40
13.98
14.94
19.22
Mexico
Turkey
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
4.166.07
7.227.55
8.679.44
Hong KongDenmark
IsraelBelgium
AustraliaNew Zealand
-2.35
-0.69
-0.32
0.52
4.43
6.57
Taiwan
Chile
Mexico
MalaysiaBrazil
Peru
0.901.942.05
2.892.98
3.73
NorwayNetherlands
PortugalUK
FinlandSingapore
-4.07
-3.39
-3.16
-2.63
-2.51 KoreaMorocco
RussiaChina
India
-7.50-5.14
-3.410.660.660.76
GermanyCanadaFrance
SpainItaly
Austria
-11.67
-11.07
-8.15
-6.86
-6.57 HungaryColombiaSouth Africa
Egypt
Poland
15Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI All Country World IMI Index (for developed markets), Russell 3000 Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group 1995–2012, all rights reserved.
-9.70y
Greece -13.56 Czech Republic
Global DiversificationGlobal DiversificationFirst Quarter 2013 Index Returns
Th tf li ill t t th f f diff t R k d R t f th Q t (%)These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes and highlight the benefits of diversification. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks are considered riskier but also have higher expected returns over time.
3.30
4.96
6.63
50/50
75/25
100% Stocks
Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%)
Growth of Wealth: The Relationship between Risk and Return
0.01
1.65
3.30
100% Treasury Bills
25/75
50/50
50 000
60,000
Growth of Wealth: The Relationship between Risk and Return
Stock/Bond Mix
100% Stocks
75/25
* A li dP i d R t (%)
30,000
40,000
50,000
50/50
25/75
100% Treasury Bills
Asset Class 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years**
100% Stocks 11.19 8.35 2.63 9.92
75/25 8.46 6.50 2.50 8.09
50/50 5 69 4 50 2 05 6 08
* AnnualizedPeriod Returns (%)
10,000
20,000
01/1988 01/1993 01/1998 01/2003 01/2008 01/2013
50/50 5.69 4.50 2.05 6.08
25/75 2.89 2.35 1.32 3.92
100% Treasury Bills 0.06 0.07 0.30 1.62
16
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified portfolios rebalanced monthly. Data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
Contact info
More articles at:http://elevationwm.com/articlesblog/
Barry Mendelson, CFP®President & Financial Advisor
925-348-58521399 Ygnacio Valley Rd, Suite 24
barry@elevationwm com Walnut Creek CA [email protected] Walnut Creek, CA 94598www.elevationwm.com
17