Robonomics: benefits, challenges and solutions

Robonomics: benefits,

challenges and solutionsStanislav Ivanov

Email: [email protected]

Web: http://stanislavivanov.com

Management, Leadership and Innovation towards a Better Changing World, 10-11 November 2016

Romanian-American University, Bucharest, Romania

mailto:[email protected]

http://stanislavivanov.com/

stanislavivanov.com

The Author...

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• Editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Tourism Research (http://ejtr.vumk.eu)

• Vice Rector, Varna University of Management, Bulgaria(http://www.vumk.eu)

• Member of the International Association of Tourism Experts (http://www.aiest.org)

http://ejtr.vumk.eu/

http://www.vumk.eu/

http://www.aiest.org/

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Content

• Brief introduction

• Why robots?

• Why not robots?

• Foundations of Robonomics

• Challenges of Robonomics

• Proposed solutions to the challenges of Robonomics

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Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/robot-thinking-one.png

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Brief introduction

Robots and artificial intelligence are now used in:

• Manufacturing (Colestock, 2005; Cubero, 2007; Low, 2007; Pires, 2007)

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http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/sites/default/files/field/image/Industrial-Robots-Hyundai-Heavy.jpg

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Brief introduction


• Warehousing, supply and logistics (Min, 2010)

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http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/industrial-robots/german-warehouse-robots-tackle-picking-tasks

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Brief introduction


• Agriculture (Driessen & Heutinck, 2015)

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http://sparc-robotics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/polni-robot-amazone-bonirob-44e031.jpg

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Brief introduction


• Transportation / Self-driving cars (Maurer et al., 2016)

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http://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/images/home-where.jpg

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Brief introduction


• Medicine (Kaur, 2012; Mirheydar & Parsons, 2013)

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http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/robotics/images/2/21/Medical_robot.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140602041221

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Brief introduction


• Hotels (Gladstone, 2016)

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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/futuristic-hotel-thats-like-robotic-6449905

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• Warfare (Sparrow, 2007; Crootof, 2015)

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http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/military-robots/why-should-we-ban-autonomous-weapons-to-survive

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• Legal services (Remus & Levy, 2015)

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http://www.kurzweilai.net/will-ai-replace-judges-and-lawyers

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• Households

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http://www.roboticstrends.com/images/photos/xiaomi-mi-robot-vacuum.jpg

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• Sex services

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https://www.minds.com/blog/view/638819052533329937

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Brief introduction

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Why robots?

• Robots could work 24/7

• Robots could implement various tasks

• Robots could provide constant or improving quality of their work

• Robots could fulfil their work correctly and in a timely manner

• Robots could do routine work repeatedly

• Robots do not complain, get ill, go on strikes, spread rumors, discriminate, quit their job without notice, show negative emotions, shirk from work

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Why not robots?

• Robots lack creativity

• Robots will not be any time soon completely independent of human supervision

• Robots lack personal approach

• Robots can orientate in structured situations (at least for the moment)

• Robots may (will) be perceived as threat by human employees (e.g. Neo-Luddism movement)

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Foundations of Robonomics

• All or most of the products (goods and services) are produced / provided by robots / artificial intelligence

• High level of automation

• Active use of variety of single- and multi-purpose industrial, service and social robots

• Increased cost-efficiency of production –economically efficient on-demand single/few unit(s) production of some goods

• Smaller and more dispersed factories, closer to the consumers

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Foundations of Robonomics

• Increased level of standardisation of services –strict algorithmisation of service provision

• Gradual spread of automation / robotisation in time, industries and countries

• Spill-over effects of automation / robotisation from developed to developing economies

• Fewer but more knowledge-intensive jobs

• Employment is not the major source of incomes

• Labour and capital abundance are not competitive advantages, but knowledge and creativity

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Benefits of Robonomics

Improved quality of life in the long term due to:

• People will be liberated of hard manual labour

• Drastic increase of leisure time

• Time for creative and pleasure activities

• Less (no) work-related stress

• Improved health, increased life expectancy

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Challenges of Robonomics

Short- and mid-term challenges due to:

• Unemployment and relative overpopulation –fewer human employees and lower salaries:

Frey & Osborne (2013) assess the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations in the USA and conclude that 47% of total jobs in the country are risk of being substituted by AI.

DeCanio (2016) measures the elasticity of substitution of human labour with robots in the USA and concludes that it would lead to significant drop in wages.

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Challenges of Robonomics

• Possible functional illiteracy – humans may forget how to do things once robots do them

• Division of society between employed and unemployed

• Changes in social values – if human life valuable? Do we need other people to satisfy our needs when we have robots?

• Social unrest and political instability – due to substitution of human employees with robots

• Migration

• Wars

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Proposed solutions to the challenges

of Robonomics• Constant and fluid free life-long education

• Entertainment, tourism, leisure activities

• Birth control / birth right patent

• Universal basic income

• Robot-based taxation

• Redefinition of human rights

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of Robonomics

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of Robonomics

Situation Biological right (reproduction)

Political right (voting)

Economic right(basic income)

Outcome

1 Yes Yes Yes Country default

2 Yes Yes No Mass poverty

3 Yes No Yes Country default

4 Yes No No Mass poverty

5 No Yes Yes Demographic crisis

6 No Yes No Demographic crisis

7 No No Yes Demographic crisis

8 No No No Demographic crisis

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of Robonomics

Only a combination between options [2] and [7] provides a stable solution

People self-select whether they want the cozy life without work, but subject to sterilization and without the right to vote, OR they will not receive any guaranteed income but will have the right to vote and reproduce

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Situation Biological right (reproduction)

Political right (voting)

Economic right(basic income)

Outcome

2 Yes Yes No Mass poverty

7 No No Yes Demographic crisis


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of Robonomics

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References

• Colestock, H. (2005) Industrial robotics: selection, design, and maintenance. New York: McGraw-Hill.

• Crews, J. (2016). Robonomics: Prepare today for the jobless economy of tomorrow. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform

• Crootof, R. (2015). War, Responsibility, and Killer Robots. North Carolina Journal of International Law and Commercial Regulation, 40(4), 909-932.

• Cubero, S. (Eds) (2007). Industrial robotics: theory, modelling and control. Mammendorf: pro literature Verlag Robert Mayer-Scholz.

• DeCanio, S. J. (2016). Robots and Humans - Complements or Substitutes? Journal of Macroeconomics, doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.08.003

• Driessen, C., & Heutinck, L. F. M. (2015). Cows desiring to be milked? Milking robots and the co-evolution of ethics and technology on Dutch dairy farms. Agriculture and Human Values, 32(1), 3-20.

• Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment Working Paper. Available at: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (Accessed on 10th June 2016).

• Gladstone, N. (2016). Are robots the future of hotels? Available at: https://www.oyster.com/articles/53595arerobotsthefutureofhotels/ (Accessed 14th June 2016).

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http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

https://www.oyster.com/articles/53595arerobotsthefutureofhotels/

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References

• Kaur, S. (2012). How medical robots are going to affect our lives. IETE Technical Review, 29(3), 184-187.

• Low, K.-H. (Ed.) (2007). Industrial robotics: programming, simulation and applications. Mammendorf: pro literature Verlag Robert Mayer-Scholz.

• Maurer, M., Gerdes, J. C., Lenz, B., Winner, H. (Eds.) (2016) Autonomous driving: technical, legal and social aspects. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Open.

• Min, H. (2010). Artificial intelligence in supply chain management: theory and applications. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 13(1), 13-39.

• Mirheydar, H. S., & Parsons, J. K. (2013). Diffusion of robotics into clinical practice in the United States: process, patient safety, learning curves, and the public health. World Journal of Urology, 31(3), 455-461.

• Pires, J. N. (2007). Industrial Robots Programming: Building Applications for the Factories of the Future. New York: Springer US.

• Remus, D. & Levy, F. (2015) Can robots be lawyers? Computers, lawyers, and the practice of law. SSRN Working paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2701092

• Sparrow, R. (2007). Killer robots. Journal of Applied Philosophy, 24(1), 62-77.

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http://ssrn.com/abstract=2701092

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THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!

QUESTIONS?

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Economy & Finance

Robonomics: benefits, challenges and solutions