SEB Abg Sundahl Collier Presentation, Stockholm, Anders Kvist Dec 2008

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  • 1. Anders Kvist Head of Group Treasury ABGSundahl Collier10 December20081

2. Diversified business mix Share of Operating profit, Jan Sep 2008 Germany Wealth Merchant Life ManagementSwedenBanking 8% 9%Lithuania13% 12% Latvia5% 43% 4%50% Estonia 36% 5%6%Finland9% Denmark Norway Retail BankingGeography - Adjusted for Other Divisions - Adjusted for Other2 3. Resilient underlying business Corporate credit exposure Swedish mutual funds Net inflows Jan-Sep, SEK bn SEK m , Q4-06, Q2-07, Q4-07, Q2-Q3-08 5,9 500 450-1,1 400 -7,3 350 -11,6 -17,0 300Robur SHBNordea SEB Others 250 200 Life Total sales 150 SEK bn 10013,312,012,0 11,950 10,710,7 9,7 0 ss ers sntntnt nt th lie lieielieO Cl rC lCrC ltic ai e e rgrg tBaRe La Lah ancquot; is eddim Q1-07Q2 Q3Q4 Q1-08Q2 Q3orer Swquot;N G3 4. SEB's franchiseRecent awards/customer acknowledgements Merchant BankingIn October and November #1 Nordic stock brokerBest SME bank in Sweden #1 Nordic and Baltic investment bank #1 Nordic and Baltic cash managerBest stockbroker in Sweden #1 Custody Nordic and Baltic markets #1 Scandinavian currencies Sub-custodian of the year Wealth ManagementTrade community #1 Nordic and Baltic private bank #2 Nordic asset managerFirst Green Bond Life and pensionNordic Asset Management #1 Nordic unit-linked business firm of the year Retail Bank of the year inEstonia and Lithuania #2 Baltic region4 5. Diversified credit portfolio Credit exposure, On and off-balance, SEK 1,805bn By sector By geographyBanks BalticPublicCorporate administration 14%6% 10% 24%German 40%26% 66%14% Households NordicProperty management 5 6. Corporate and real estate exposures SEB Group Corporate credit exposureProperty management credit exposure SEK 720bnSEK 245bn12%3%1%19% 8% 6% 11%2%42% 3%10%27% 18%35%3%Finance and insurance Wholesale and retailSweden Germany EstoniaTransportationOther service sectorsLatvia Lithuania Other NordicConstructionManufacturingOther European OtherOther6 7. Development of lending market SEB Swedbank shares BalticsDnB Nord Parex Banka Per cent, Jan 2005 Sep 2008 Sampo/Danske bank Nordea Estonia*LatviaLithuania 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0%0% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 050607080506070805060708* Sampo as per Q1 2008 Swedbank as per Q2 20087 8. Managing the Baltic downturnGroup credit exposure Strategic prioritiesTotal exposure = SEK 1,805bnTargeted credit portfolio reviews Non-BalticJoint local and head-office work- 90%out teamEarly conservative provisioning Estonia 2% Latvia 3%Individual country approachLithuania 5%Full integration in SEB Group toBaltics - Provisioning to build up reservesbroaden product paletteSEK m Specific Collective 350Develop relationships withexisting and new customers 250150 50-50Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08 Q3-088 9. High and stable deposits to loans ratio Lending to the publicDeposits from the public SEKbnSEKbn Jan-Sep 08 +12% yoy Jan-Sep 08 +18% yoy900 1,400800 1,200 1,000700 800600 600500 400400Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4 Q1 Q2Q3Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3 200520062007 20082005 20062007 2008Deposits to loans ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2001 2002 20032004 20052006 2007 Q3 2008 9 10. Structural liquidity position Balance sheet structure Net liquidity position across maturities SEK bn, 30 Sep 300SEB is match- 250 funded approx.Short-term Liquidone yearfunding assets 200150100 Long-50termLending funding, 0deposits1 week 2 weeks 4 weeks 2 months 3 months 4 months 5 months 6 months 9 months 12 months& Equity More than 12 months matched funding, i.e. based on no access to capital markets, no refinancing of debt to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated capital; and moderate reduction of Assets Equity & Liabilities business activities. 10 11. Funding raised with original maturity > 1 year Jan Sep 2008ProductBn SEK YCD3,0 Examples of transactions: Senior unsecured Germany 1,7 April: 5 Year Euro covered bond atspread of 17 bps Senior unsecured Sweden 36,0May/June: 2 Year Senior Euro FRN Structured bonds13,2notes at spread of 48 bps Covered bonds Germany 29,1 Covered bond Sweden 64,2 Hybrid Tier 1 4,7* Total 151,9 * Issued in Dec 2007 11 12. Diversified funding structure SEB Group, Sep 2008 SEK 1,702bnSchuldscheins andReg BondsCPs/CDs 3%11%Mortgage Covered Bonds Sweden 10% Mortgage CoveredBonds Germany2% Deposits - GeneralPublic Covered PublicBonds Germany42%7% Senior debt 2% Deposits -Subordinated debtInterbank3% 20%* Over collateral within covered pools SEK 57bn 12 13. Capital adequacySEB Group Core capital ratio, %Total capital ratio, % Basel IITransition Basel I11,511,0 10,810,59,3%10,4 10,3 10,2 Basel I 8,68,2 8,18,07,97,8 7,57,3%DecDecDecDec Dec DecSep2002 2003 2004 2005 200620072008 SEK bn Capital base 52.7 54.758.776.2 85.893.097.7 Basel I Risk-w. Assets 503535 570704741 842937 1.04513 14. Improved quality of the capital base Focus on true loss absorption Strategy to improve the quality and 100% loss absorption capacity of the capital31,7 base: 35,5 80% LT2 redemption in June 20076,74,8 replaced by hybrid tier 1 capital in 7,5 60%70,0 December 2007 60,6 500 hybrid tier 1 capital issued in 40% December 2007 - enhanced loss absorption capacity; cancellation of20% coupon payments and write down of principal pre-liquidation 0% Ambition to partly replace'Dec 2006'Sep 2008 outstanding UT2 capital with hybridEquity *Enhanced hybrid capital capital with enhanced - CEBSHybrid capitalTier II compliant - loss absorption* Total equity in the capital adequacy capacity 14 15. Economic capital in relation to the capital base September 2008The capital base holds an significant buffer in comparison to therequired economic capital100 80 60 40 200 Capital base incl Economic deductions capital15 16. Nordic capital ratios Tier 1 capital ratio reported Q3 2008 (%) Tier 1 ratio - Full Basel II Tier 1 ratio - Basel II transition rules 10.5 10.110.0 10.09.4 7.98.28.27.3 7.0 6.7SwedbankDanske Bank SEBSHB DnB NOR Nordea Notes: 1 Swedbank: Including SEK 12.5bn capital rasing announced 27 October 2008 2 Danske: only reports tier 1 ratio under full Basel II 3 DnB NOR: RWA adjusted for life insurance impact (life insurance assets risk weighted under statutory disclosure) to allow comparison 16 17. Rating agencies deems SEBs capital adequateS & P 10 October 2008 The ratings on SEB reflect its group's well-diversified revenue base, underpinned by itsvery strong franchise in corporate and merchant banking in Sweden; adequatecapitalizationLikewise, negative rating action could follow if capitalization were todeteriorate, given the risk profile of the group.Moodys 25 September 2008 SEB's BFSR remains well placed in the B- category reflectingits current earnings profile, liquidity and capital levels. Fitch 3 July 2008 `~~~ =I===~~=~==~====~=~=~=~==~=~==b~=bK=q=p~=l==~==c==~=pb_==~I====~===~I=~=~~~ ~====~=~~=~=====~~=~K 17 18. Stress tests The Swedish Central Bank, IMF and the Swedish FSA (notdisclosed public) have performed stress test to assess SEBcapital strength.The Swedish Central Banks and the Swedish FSAs stresstests aimed at capturing a general down turn/stressed scenario,whilst IMF primarily focused on the Baltic exposure.The out come showed in all cases that, despite severe creditlosses and deteriorating underlying earnings, SEB shouldmanage to maintain a sufficient capital base in the scenariosused for the stress tests.18 19. Summary of strategic review 2006 Increase capitalisation Avoid late business-cycle expansion Commercial Real Estate Leveraged Finance/Private Equity Shipping Controlled slow-down of Baltic market One SEB/Operational excellence Integration/cost management Bolt-on acquisitions and divestments of non-core entities 19 20. Going forward Holistic balance sheet management Robust capital and good liquidity Resilient customer business Cost management 20 21. 21