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Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
January 2015 Survey Update
Issued 9th
February 2015
Richard Ramsey Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com [email protected]
Twitter @UB_Economics
PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’
Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and
prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents
reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater
the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted
to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages
have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
Global output growth picks up in January from December’s 14-month low
Global Output - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Total Manufacturing Services
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
EZ manufacturing & service sector growth picks up with retail & construction contracting at an accelerating rate
Eurozone PMIs: Output
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services
Construction Retail No Change
Source: Markit Economics Expansion
Contraction
The Eurozone’s composite PMI signals economic growth easing in Q4 but a pick-up in early 2015
EZ GDP versus EZ Composite PMIComposite excludes construction
2025303540455055606570
2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.52
GDP % Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI
Source: Bloomberg & Markit Economics, * Q1 = Jan-15 l
EZ Q3-14 GDP 0.2%
Top, middle and near the bottom describes the relative manufacturing output performance of the RoI, UK & NI
PMIs: Manufacturing Output January 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
AustriaAustralia
IndonesiaRussiaTurkeyFranceGreece
NIChina
SingaporeSwitzerland
ItalyBrazil
CanadaS.KoreaVietnam
EZGermany
EUGlobalJapan
TaiwanUK
NetherlandsIndia
USIreland
DenmarkCzech Republic
SpainPolandMexico
S.AfricaN.Zealand*
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *November
RoI, UK & NI
€
The Republic of Ireland, UK & Spain posted the fastest rates of service sector output growth in January
PMIs: Services Output January 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
RussiaBrazil
FranceAustralia
Emerging MarketsItaly
JapanChinaIndia
EZGlobal
Developed MarketsEUNI
GermanyUS*
SpainUK
Ireland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
€
Spain, Germany, Italy & the UK post an acceleration in growth in January, with France still in contraction mode
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
Contraction
Expansion
The US, UK & EZ Composite PMIs posted a pick up in their rates of growth in January. China saw growth rate ease
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Eurozone US (Markit) China Japan UK
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US begins Jul-11
ExpansionC
ontraction
The US ISM points to a significant slowdown in manufacturing activity in recent months
Manufacturing PMIs
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone No Change
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
Diverging performance within Emerging Markets with India in expansion mode & Russia recession bound
Composite PMIs (Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Brazil Russia India Emerging Markets
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
Australia’s services & manufacturing sectors remain ‘Down Under’ the 50 threshold in January
Australia - PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Manufacturing Services No Change
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
Contraction
Expansion
NI records its 2nd consecutive month of contraction as it continues to diverge from the UK & RoI
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
ExpansionC
ontraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**
PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index (combines indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production) throughout 2014
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
-6-5-4
-3-2-1012
345
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
NICEI Q/Q%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI NICEI Left Hand Scale PMI Right Hand Scale
Source: DFP NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank / Markit Economics NI PMI,Q2 2014 is latest data for NICEI. *Q1 refers to Jan-15 only
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI Expansion
ContractionE i
2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity, new orders, employment & export orders all expanded
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
NI’s recovery took hold in H2 of 2013 with all indicators improving in H1 2014 but easing in H2 2014
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006
H220
07H1
2007
H220
08H1
2008
H220
09H1
2009
H220
10H1
2010
H220
11H1
2011
H220
12H1
2012
H220
13H1
2013
H220
14H1
2014
H2
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
NI has started 2015 on a negative note with output, orders & employment for the first time since May 2013
NI Private Sector ActivityMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
Incoming orders for NI firms slump in H2 with Jan-15 marking the first contraction (on a monthly basis) in 20 months
Private Sector New Orders3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Orders increasing
Orders C
ontracting
Backlogs of work continue to grow in the UK & RoI but NI posts a 4th month of contraction as activity slows
Private Sector Backlogs3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Increasing D
ecreasing
Export orders flat or falling in each of the last 3 months
NI New Export BusinessMonthly
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
New Export Orders No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Expansion
Contraction
PMI signals the fastest rate of jobs growth in 7 years in Q2 with the pace of job creation easing sharply since
NI Employment: PMI v QES**
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI & includes public sector
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job Losses
Job gains
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to Jan-15 only
Job creation in the RoI eases from Dec-14’s record rate but NI posts its 1st month of decline in 19 months
Private Sector Employment LevelsMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Job Gains
Job Losses
Inflationary pressures relatively subdued with output prices falling
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
Price of goods & services
Scotland joins NI as the only two UK regions to see a contraction in output in January
Output / Business ActivityJanuary 201550 = No change
47.748.0
60.3
56.9
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Wal SW East UK NW SE NE Y&H EM NI Scot RoI
PMI Index
ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Most of the UK regions & the RoI posted strong rates of growth but NI is at the foot of regional league table
Output / Business Activity 3 months to January 2015
50 = No change
56.7
60.5
50.1
40
45
50
55
60
65
Wal Lon WM SE East UK NE SW Y&H EM NW Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business activity over the last 12 months & Scotland the slowest
Output / Business Activity12 months to January 2015
50 = No change
56.3
58.1
59.9
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
NE Wal Lon SE East WM UK EM Y&H NW SW NI Scot RoI
PMI Index
ExpansionC
ontractionSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
NI posts its 1st contraction in employment since Jun-13. London & the RoI report the strongest rates of growth
Employment LevelsJanuary 2015
50 = No change
49.5
58.3
56.6
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Lon WM East UK NW Y&H SE SW Wal EM NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
NI & the North East post the weakest rates of job creation within the UK over the last 3 months
Employment Levels3 months to January 2015
50 = No change
55.8
50.4
59.1
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East WM Lon Y&H UK Wal SE NW SW EM Scot NE NI RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
NI & the North East posted the weakest rates of jobs growth over the last year with the RoI reporting the strongest rates
Employment Levels 12 months to January 2015
50 = No change
56
53.4
57.8
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East Y&H NW UK Lon SE WM SW EM Wal Scot NI NE RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasingSource: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
All three UK sectors report an acceleration in output growth in January
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Services Manufacturing Construction
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
UK posts strong rates of economic growth between Q1-13 & Q3-14 with growth easing in Q4-14
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMIUK Composite includes Construction
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5GDP Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
Source: ONS & Markit Economics, *Q1 = Jan-15 only
RoI output growth remains robust across all sectors with construction & manufacturing easing from recent highs
RoI Business Activity - PMIsMonthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change
Source: Markit Economics
Contraction
Expansion
All sector’s experienced weaker growth in the second half of the year relative to H1-14
NI Private Sector Business Activity (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006
H220
07H1
2007
H220
08H1
2008
H220
09H1
2009
H220
10H1
2010
H220
11H1
2011
H220
12H1
2012
H220
13H1
2013
H220
14H1
2014
H2PMI Index
Manufacturing Services Construction Retail ExpansionC
ontraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
All sectors experienced a rapid slowdown in output growth in H2 with services outperforming the other sectors
Northern Ireland Private Sector Output 3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Expansion
Contraction
Services & construction firms reporting reasonable rates of employment growth with manufacturing flat
NI PMI - Employment Index 3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Job Gains
Job Losses
Manufacturing slowdown continues with output, orders & employment broadly flat in 3 months to Jan-15
NI Manufacturing Activity - PMI3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Grow
th C
ontraction
RoI firms continue to post strong rates of growth in output while NI firms report their 2nd month decline in Jan-15
Manufacturing Output3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Slowdown in new orders growth is most marked amongst NI manufacturing firms
Manufacturing New Orders3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Until recently, NI had been outperforming most of its European competitors. But is now below all of them
Manufacturing Output - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI France
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
C
ontractionExpansion
Input cost inflation remains at a 5½ year low. Output prices have fallen in 7 of the last 9 months
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
The PMI is signalling a moderation in manufacturing employment growth in Q3/Q4 following record high in Q2
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES**
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job Losses
Job gains**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to Jan-15 only
Service sector experiences a slowdown in H2-14 but marked pick-up in new orders growth is encouraging
NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Grow
th acceleratingC
ontraction accelerating
Despite some easing in recent months, UK & NI firms continue to enjoy robust rates of growth in output
Services Output (excluding Retail)3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
NI firms report a pick-up in new orders growth following a marked slowdown Q3 & Q4
Services New Orders (excluding Retail ) 3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
UK NI RoI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
NI’s services firms still reporting input cost inflation but output prices have fallen in 8 of the last 12 months
NI Services Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits squeeze
UK, RoI and NI firms all reporting a pick-up in service sector employment growth over the 3 months to Jan-15
Services Employment3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
UK RoI NI No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Contraction
Expansion
Services PMI posted its fastest rate of jobs growth in Q2-14 since Q4 2007. Pace of job creation has eased ever since
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES**
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to Jan-15 only
NI retailers starting 2015 the way 2014 ended with output & orders contracting at an accelerating rate
Northern Ireland Retail PMI3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Expansion
Contraction
Local retailers report heavy discounting with output prices recently falling at their fastest rate since mid-2009
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI Profits squeeze
Since Q2-14’s record rates of growth, NI’s construction firms report a significant easing in their rates of growth
NI Construction PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Output New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank
ExpansionC
ontraction
50 = No change
Input cost inflation remains high but construction firms are at least still able to raise their prices
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-09 May-10 Jul-11 Sep-12 Nov-13 Jan-15
PMI IndexInput Prices Output Prices No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
InflationD
eflation
NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth since Q3 2013 but this is largely due to NI firms working outside of NI
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES**
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q3 2010 Q1 2012 Q3 2015 Q1*
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction. *Q1 refers to January only
Strong rates of output growth amongst UK & RoI firms with NI firms reporting first fall in output since May-13
Construction Sector Output - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
NI orders growth continues to ease from recent record high with UK growth slowing too. RoI posts robust rates of growth
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
Opportunities for NI firms. However, slowdown in civil engineering activity continues
UK Construction Activity - PMIs3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionC
ontraction
…with an increasing number of opportunities within the RoI too
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI3 month moving average
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
ExpansionC
ontraction
50 = No change
Slide 59
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