ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Teff Production and Market Access in Ethiopia

Mekamu Kedir, Emily Schmidt, Helina TilahunIFPRI ESSP

Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA) and the Econometric Society 19th Annual Conference of the African Region Chapter of the Econometric Society12th International Conference on the Ethiopian EconomyJuly 16-19, 2014Addis Ababa

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• Understand spatial and temporal teff production pattern;

• Explore how market access spatially overlaps with :

o Teff production,o Teff cultivated area and, o Chemical fertilizer use over time.

Objectives

• This study links EASE, AgSS and GIS data.• Ethiopian Agricultural Sample Enumeration (2001/02) ;• AgSS (1997/98, 2006/07 and 2010/11 );• GIS data: elevation and slope grid, city, and road networks, landuse,

water bodies…

• We categorize woredas into top, middle, and low terciles based on teff production. Within these categories we examine :

o Share of producers using fertilizer and;o Share of fertilized teff area;

• The study uses measurements of travel time to examine differences in agricultural production and input use.

Data and Method

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Background

• Ethiopia’s road investment claims three percent of GDP, one of the highest in Africa (Foster and Morella, 2011).

• In SSA countries:o Higher crop production in areas of better connectivity to markets.o Lower input technology adoption rate in areas with higher travel

time to large cities (Dorosh et al.,2010).

• We tried to explore market access, teff production and fertilizer application on teff

o Cereals have the highest area share of grain crops & among cereals teff has the highest share of area coverage (CSA, 2011).

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Teff : Production & Cultivated Area

• Oromia and Amhara regions in 2010/11 :

o 85 percent of the national teff production;

o 84 percent of area cultivated by teff

• S.N.N.P’s contribution to national teff production and area coverage in the same year was 8.5 and 9.6 percent, respectively.

97/98

99/00

01/02

04/05

06/07

08/09

10/11

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30

40

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60

TigrayAmharaOromiaS.N.N.P.

Pro

du

ctio

n %

sh

are

97/98

99/00

01/02

04/05

06/07

08/09

10/11

0

10

20

30

40

50

TigrayAmharaOromiaS.N.N.P.

Are

a %

sh

are

9

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Teff : Producer and Fertilizer Use by Terciles

• The percent of producers applying fertilizer on teff fields and share of fertilized teff area increased over time.

• Top production category has the highest share.

Teff : Production, Cultivated Area, and Accessibility

• In non-remote areas, there is an increase in percentage of: o Teff production: from

10 percent to 45 percent

o Teff area: from 8 percent to 44 percent

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Teff : Yield, Fertilized Area, and Accessibility

• In areas with in 3 hours of access to large cities, there is an increase in: o Teff yield: from 9 q/ha to

13q/ha,

o The percent of fertilized teff area: 9 to 55 percent

1997/98 2006/07 2010/110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Under 3 hours

Per

cen

t of

fert

iliz

ed t

eff a

rea

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Conclusions

• The percent of producers applying fertilizer on teff fields increased.

• Increasingly larger share of teff area is being fertilized.

• An increase in teff production, area, and yield is noted within 3 hours travel time to a city of at least 50,000 people.

• Increase in market access and fertilizer use on teff fields over the study years.