The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy views

The 2016 Election: American Foreign and Economic Policy Views

Bruce Stokes

Director, Global Economic Attitudes Stockholm, January 2016

January 14, 2016 2

Pew Research Center

• Established 1996

• Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations

• Non-profit, non-partisan, non-advocacy fact tank in Washington

• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 85 countries

• www.pewresearch.org

• @pewresearch

www.pewresearch.org

http://www.pewresearch.org/

THE HORSE RACE

January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 3

Republicans Want a Conservative Nominee,

Democrats Prefer a Moderate


Would rather see their party nominate someone for president in 2016 who is …

Very

conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very

Liberal

% % % % %

Republican

2007 15 45 30 9 1

2015 18 42 32 6 1

Democrat

2007 3 16 48 23 7

2015 6 15 40 26 10

Source: Gallup survey, Dec 2-6, 2015.

Democrats More Positive on the State of U.S. Economy


Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015.

Economic conditions in the country today are excellent/good

8 14

21 17

39 38

7

27

22

0

50

2012 2013 2014 2015

Republican Democrat Independent

%

But Higher Campaign Interest Among Republicans

Than at the Same Point in 2008



74%

86

71% 75

66% 72

Dec 2007 Dec 2015


Given a lot/some thought to the candidates

STRATEGIC CONCERNS


Growing Share of Americans Cite Terrorism and Foreign Issues as the

Most Important Problems Facing the U.S.


Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided.


Most important problem facing the country today

Dec

2014

Dec

2015 Change

% %

Terrorism 1 18 +17

Economy (general) 14 9 -5

Defense/National security 2 8 +6

Immigration 12 7 -5

Unemployment 10 7 -3

ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 2 7 +5

Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 10 6 -4

Gun control/Too many guns/ Mass shootings 1 5 +4

Political gridlock/division 8 5 -3 NET: Foreign/International 9 32 +23

NET: Economic issues 34 23 -11

Partisan Divide on International Concerns: More Republicans

Than Democrats See Terrorism, Defense as Top Problems


Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided.


Most important problem facing the country today

Dem Ind Rep

Rep-Dem

diff

% % %

Defense/National security 5 6 16 R+11

Immigration 3 7 14 R+11

Terrorism 16 18 24 R+8

ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 4 8 8 R+4

Economy (general) 6 12 7 R+1

Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 5 6 4 D+1

Gun control/Too many guns/Mass shootings 5 6 4 D+1

Unemployment 7 8 4 D+3

Political gridlock/Division 8 4 2 D+6

NET: Foreign/International 24 32 42 R+18

NET: Economic issues 20 25 21 D-1

ISIS Tops Public’s International Threat List by Large Margin


*August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’


__ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States

83%

62

59

49

49

43

42

67%

59

57

48

48

48

53

ISIS

Iran's nuclear program

North Korea's nuclear program

China's emergence as a world power

Global climate change

Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Growing authoritatianism in Russia*

Dec 2015 Aug 2014

Republicans More Concerned About a Range

of International Issues, but Not Climate Change


*August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’


__ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States

93%

79

70

62

56

50

22

79%

52

57

44

38

40

73

ISIS

Iran's nuclear program

North Korea's nuclear program

China's emergence as a world power

Isreali-Palestinian conflict

Growing authoritatianism in Russia*


Republican Democrat

Public Favors GOP on Terrorism, Democrats on Climate Change



Which party could do a better job dealing with …

34%

37

37

40

46

53

46%

43

42

42

32

30

Terrorist threat at home

Gun control

Economy

Immigration


Environment

Republican Party Democratic Party

R+12

R+6

R+5

D+14

D+23

R+2

DEALING WITH TERRORISM


Republicans Far More Concerned Than Democrats About

Islamic Extremism Abroad and at Home



Very concerned about the rise of …


46

37

60 57 61 51

82 83

44

29

51 53

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Islamic extremism around the world

43 36

50 49

59 54

71 65

46

24

46 38

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Islamic extremism in the U.S.

Most Republicans Say Government Anti-Terror

Policies Haven’t Gone Far Enough



Gov’t anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country

55

71

47 54

46 49

0

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Republican Democrat Independent%

Few Believe Current Military Effort in Iraq and Syria Is Going Well



U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is going …

58%

62

58

58

35%

30

36

34

Dec 2015

July 2015

Feb 2015

Oct 2014

Not too/at all well Very/Fairly well

But Most Americans Continue to Support U.S. Military

Campaign Against ISIS


Note: September 2014 survey asked about Barack Obama’s plan for a military campaign against militants in Iraq and Syria. August 2014 survey

asked about U.S. airstrikes against militants in Iraq only.


__ of the U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria

54 53 57

63 63 64

31 29 33

30 26 28

0

100

Approve

Disapprove

Dec

2015

July

2015

Feb

2015

Oct

2014

%

Aug

2014

Sept

2014

Most Republicans Favor Sending U.S. Ground Troops to Iraq and Syria



__ the U.S. sending ground troops to fight Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria

47%

66

48

33

47%

28

47

64

6%

5

5

4

TOTAL

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Favor Oppose Don't know

And the Public Is Optimistic About ISIS Fight in Long-Term



U.S. and its allies will __ in their military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria

36%

27

55%

66

July 2015 December 2015

Definitely/Probably fail Definitely/Probably succeed

NATO AND RUSSIA


January 14, 2016 21 www.pewresearch.org

NATO Support Steady in U.S.

Favorable view of NATO

2009 2011 2013 2015

09-15

Change 13-15

Change

% % % %

U.S. 53 54 49 49 -4 0

Canada — — 57 56 — -1

France 71 70 58 64 -7 +6

Germany 73 60 59 55 -18 -4

Italy 64 — 60 64 0 +4

Poland 75 72 64 74 -1 +10

Spain 56 62 42 47 -9 +5

UK 63 63 59 60 -3 +1

Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.


Americans More Ready Than Europeans

to Use Force to Defend NATO Allies

If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,

do you think our country should use military force to defend that country?

56%

53

48

U.S.

Canada

EU median

Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.



… But Deep U.S. Partisan Divide on Russia-Ukraine

Democrats Republicans Diff

% %

U.S. should use military force to defend

NATO ally against Russia 47 69 +22

Support for NATO sending arms to the

Ukrainian gov’t 39 60 +21

Increase economic sanctions on Russia 23 40 +17

Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO member 59 71 +12

Russia is a major military threat to its neighbors 56 67 +11

Russia is to blame for violence in eastern Ukraine 39 50 +11

Support for Western countries providing economic aid to Ukraine 60 69 +9


CHINA



China Seen Unfavorably by More Than Half of Americans

U.S. views of China

43

52

42

39

50 49 51

40

37 35

38 35

29

39

42

38 36 36

40

52 55 54

0

80

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Favorable

Unfavorable

%



Republicans and Older Americans Most Critical of China

U.S. views of China

54%

63

50

51

39

51

64

38%

27

42

42

55

41

27

TOTAL

Republican

Independent

Democrat

18-29

30-49

50+

Favorable Unfavorable



And Republicans More Concerned Than

Democrats About Most China-Related Issues

__ is a very serious problem



Moreover, A Partisan Divide Over the Asia Pivot


THE OBAMA REFERENDUM



Source: NBC/WSJ survey, Dec 6-9, 2015.

Majority of Americans Disapprove of

Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy

__ of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy

49 48 52 52

44 37 37

42 44 41 40

48 55 57

0

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Approve

Disapprove

%

Majority Say Obama Is “Not Tough Enough” on Foreign Policy



When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is …

June

2009

April

2010

Sept

2012

Nov

2013

Aug

2014

Jan

2015

July

2015

Dec

2015

% % % % % % % %

Too tough 2 2 2 5 3 5 4 2

Not tough enough 38 47 41 51 54 55 53 58

About right 51 41 42 37 36 37 37 34

Don’t know 8 10 15 6 7 3 3 6

And Criticism of Obama’s Toughness Is a Partisan Affair



Too

tough Not tough

enough

About

right Don’t

know

% % % %

TOTAL 2 58 34 6

Republican 1 84 9 6

Conservative 1 89 4 5

Moderate/Liberal 1 72 19 7

Independent 3 61 30 6

Democrat 2 35 58 5

Conservative/Moderate 3 45 47 6

Liberal 2 26 69 3

When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is …

ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT



Relative to Other Issues, Trade Ranks Near the Bottom of

Americans’ Concerns and Always Has

Top priority for the president and Congress

*Before 2014, question asked about ‘illegal immigration.’

Source: Pew Research Center survey, Jan 7-11, 2015.

--Bush-- -------------------------------------------Obama-------------------------------------------

2007

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 2015

% % % % % % % %

Defending against terrorism 80 76 80 73 69 71 73 76

Strengthening nation’s economy 68 85 83 87 86 86 80 75

Reducing the budget deficit 53 53 60 64 69 72 63 64

Dealing with immigration* 55 41 40 46 39 39 40 52

Protecting the environment 57 41 44 40 43 52 49 51

Dealing with moral breakdown in country

47 45 45 43 44 40 39 48

Dealing with global warming 38 30 28 26 25 28 29 38

Dealing with global trade issues 34 31 32 34 38 31 28 30


Americans Say Trade Is Good for the Country

Growing trade and business ties with other countries are a good thing

Note: 14 country median based on countries surveyed in 2002, 2007-2010 and 2014. U.S. not included in median.


78

59

53

65 66 68

83

78 80 81

84

76

40

100

2002 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

14 country median

U.S.

%


Yet Few Think Trade Deals Boost the Economy

Free trade agreements …

Note: “Other” and “Don’t know” responses not shown.

Source: Pew Research Center survey, May 12-18, 2015.

25% 19

31

42% 43

34

2009 2010 2015

Make

economy

grow

Slow

economy

down

18% 24 25 Don't make

a difference

11 8 11

49 45 46

2009 2010 2015

Make

wages

higher

Make

wages

lower

24 34 33 Don't make

a difference

13 8

17

53 55

46

2009 2010 2015

Create

jobs

Lead

to job

losses

19 24 28 Don't make

a difference


Despite Such Skepticism, Half of Americans Support TPP

TPP will be __ for the U.S.

49%

13%

9%

29%

Don't

know

Good thing

Bad thing

Haven't heard enough/

Neither (VOL)

Question wording: “The United States is negotiating a free-trade agreement with countries in the Asia-Pacific region called the Trans-Pacific

Partnership. Do you think this trade agreement would be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?”



And Half Back TTIP

TTIP will be a __ for our country

50%

53

21%

20

17%

16

2015

2014

Good thing Bad thing Haven't heard enough/Neither (VOL)

Question wording: “As you may know, the United States and the European Union are negotiating a free-trade agreement called the

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?”

Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.


A Significant Partisan Divide Exists on Both TPP and TTIP

__ would be a good thing for the U.S.

Republican Democrat Dem-Rep

Diff

% %

TPP 43 51 +8

TTIP 45 59 +14

Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.

January 14, 2016 40

All Pew Research Center reports and data are

available online at www.pewresearch.org

www.pewresearch.org

Economy & Finance

The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy views